2012 MLB Free Agency: Predicting Where Top 10 FA Pitchers Will Land

MLB fans of all allegiances are anxiously waiting for 2012 free-agent pitchers to commit to their future franchises.

With the Baseball Winter Meetings approaching, I'm predicting landing spots for the top available arms.

Early offseason activity has eliminated numerous possibilities.

Contending, high-spending clubs like the Texas Rangers and Philadelphia Phillies, for example, agreed to multi-year deals with closers Joe Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon, respectively. Also, the New York Yankees have already retained a pair of their starters from 2011, Freddy Garcia and C.C. Sabathia.

Nonetheless, plenty of talented pitchers remain jobless as the calendar turns to December, and every team will at least consider making offers to impressionable free agents.

Here is where the best starting pitchers and closers are destined to sign.

Starting Pitcher CJ Wilson: Miami Marlins

Perhaps the Miami Marlins' act of playing host to every prominent free agent has gotten repetitive, but don't think for a minute that this franchise is bluffing.

The front office entertained C.J. Wilson on November 28 and made their intentions clear.

While a new stadium and line of apparel will not afford the Marlins a $200 million roster in 2012, such things will give them the means to sign at least one top free agent.

With only two seasons of major league starting experience, Wilson is not a sure-fire ace.

However, Miami is rightfully attracted to his left-handedness, deep repertoire of pitches and lack of innings that typically make veterans susceptible to injury.

Closer Ryan Madson: Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays used Frank Francisco in closing situations towards the end of this past season. Although Francisco didn't fare poorly, Ryan Madson is undoubtedly an upgrade.

This franchise will have money to spend and Madson has been nothing but consistent as an MLB player.

He has significantly better strike-throwing ability than fellow free agents Francisco Rodriguez and Francisco Cordero.

He surely has no interest in returning to the Philadelphia Phillies after they inked Jonathan Papelbon to fill his role.

This deal would need to be at least three years in length.

Starting Pitcher Yu Darvish: Washington Nationals

I know, I know—Yu Darvish isn't technically a free agent. In fact, with each passing day I become increasingly convinced that he'll opt to stay in Japan for another season . . . or another three until he can bypass the posting system.

Still, his inclusion in this article is necessary considering the overall mediocrity of the 2012 class of free-agent starters.

His professional statistics are jaw-dropping. Most notably, he has a 93-38 record and 55 complete games in 164 career starts, and a 1.99 earned run average.

His 6'5", 220-pound frame is ideal for a major league pitcher. MLB teams will also be impressed with his avoidance of major injuries, considering that durability is the principal concern when offering a long-term deal.

The Washington Nationals are immensely talented and actively pursuing a great pitcher to co-lead their starting rotation with Stephen Strasburg.

Closer Francisco Rodriguez: Miami Marlins

Francisco Rodriguez has reappeared on the open market three years after signing a lucrative contract with the New York Mets. He underachieved in Flushing and did not record a save after being dealt to the Milwaukee Brewers after the All-Star break.

K-Rod continues to showcase one of the league's best changeups, but his fastball velocity has steadily declined.

Rodriguez has a reputation for always "making it interesting" in the ninth inning by allowing opposing batters to reach base. Consequently, he should not be paid like a world-class closer.

Alas, there will be several organizations wooing him for his services. He will go to the highest bidder, which I assume will be the young money Miami Marlins.

Starting Pitcher Mark Buehrle: Chicago White Sox

Mark Buehrle's situation seemed very strange immediately after the end of the regular season.

With the announcement that Chris Sale would be converted into a starting pitcher for 2012, the Chicago White Sox appeared poised to replace their invaluable, veteran leader.

Now, I'm beginning to better understand the circumstances.

I predict that general manager Kenny Williams will attempt to move either John Danks or Gavin Floyd—both starters—during December's winter meetings, at which point he will re-sign Buehrle before another team swoops in.

To be frank, Danks and Floyd are expendable. Trading either of them is a win-win as it re-opens Buehrle's spot in the rotation, but also promises to bring a pair of prospects back to the South Side.

Closer Heath Bell: San Diego Padres

This is what we know about the relationship between Heath Bell and the San Diego Padres:

Bell wants to stay in San Diego and has told the organization his preferred salary.

San Diego likes how he pitches, but only plans to spend about $50 million on team payroll in 2012.

Without him, the Padres would have no pitchers older than 30.

The Padres have offered him arbitration that—if accepted—would bind him to the organization via a one-year, eight-figure contract.

Bell is handcuffing the front office by waiting to make a decision on the arbitration offer. Ultimately, I expect him to accept it instead of seeking a multi-year deal elsewhere due to his fondness of the franchise.

Starting Pitcher Roy Oswalt: Boston Red Sox

Many analysts imagine that Roy Oswalt will sign with the Texas Rangers to replace the departing C.J. Wilson. I think the Boston Red Sox need him more.

After suffering an agonizing collapse in September to finish in third place in the American League East, the Red Sox parted with their manager, general manager and closer.

But pertaining to this list, the most relevant announcement was that slumping starting pitcher John Lackey would undergo Tommy John surgery. His 2012 campaign will end before it begins, leaving a vacancy in Boston's rotation.

Many of the team's players are signed to lengthy deals, but coming off an injury-riddled 2011 season, Oswalt won't be able to demand more than a couple years.

I expect Boston to offer him the highest annual salary of any team, prompting him to commit.

Reliever Brad Lidge: Boston Red Sox

In many respects, Brad Lidge is in the same boat as longtime teammate Roy Oswalt. That's why I expect him to wind up with the Boston Red Sox, too.

Like Oswalt, he's experiencing free agency as a playoff-tested, former All-Star in his mid-thirties, whose playing time was limited by serious injury in 2011.

Lidge's fastball has been rapidly deteriorating since he signed with the Philadelphia Phillies before the 2008 season. According to Fan Graphs, the average velocity on his heater last season was only 89.0 mph!

Still, he flaunts a devastating slider and had success when healthy.

He satisfies Boston's need for late-inning relief and would serve as either the setup man or closer, whichever job doesn't go to fire-baller Daniel Bard.

Starting Pitcher Edwin Jackson: Chicago Cubs

I have raved about Edwin Jackson in previous articles because of his outstanding fastball, rising confidence in his off-speed pitches and durability.

No 28-year-old MLB player is quite as well-traveled as Jackson. He has been traded from Los Angeles to Tampa Bay to Detroit to Arizona to Chicago to Toronto to St. Louis, all during the past six seasons!

Finally Jackson has an opportunity to settle down.

His affordability relative to the top-tier free agents will keep a lot of clubs interested.

However, that won't matter much as I foresee the well-funded Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees and Texas Rangers wrestling for his affection. The Cubs have the greatest starting pitching need of the three, so that's where he'll probably end up.

Closer Francisco Cordero: New York Mets

A lot can be said about Francisco Cordero.

He posted a 2.45 ERA in 2011 and totaled more than 30 saves for the seventh time.

Upon closer examination, though, he benefited from a fortunately low batting average on balls in play (.214 compared to his .294 career mark).

Naturally, his fastball was slower than ever in his age-36 season, but Cordero compensated. He began to throw his tertiary pitch—a changeup—more regularly, and even introduced an occasional curveball to unsuspecting opponents.

Quietly, he has amassed 327 career saves, which places him 12th on the all-time list. At the same time, I don't understand the Cincinnati Reds' rationale for bestowing a $46 million deal upon him four offseasons ago.

Cordero is not an elite closer in my opinion, but he'll certainly garner job offers. The New York Mets are desperate for bullpen help; it seems like a reasonable fit.