NBA Rumors: Dwight Howard to Lakers and Other Examples of Fan Fiction

In 11 days there will be one amazing whirlwind of action in the NBA, perhaps the single most amazing whirlwind of player movement ever. In less than two weeks, there will be an entire offseason's worth of player movement. 

When something like this happens, there are going to be a lot of rumors and with that there comes a degree of responsibility that fans and writers should adhere to. There's a difference between "rumors," "speculation" and "crazy notions invented by some fan behind a keyboard." 

The purpose here is to distinguish between the three. An actual rumor is something that is being discussed by the teams. Speculation is something that works for both teams and in which all parties have indicated a mutual interest. For example, there was a lot of real speculation regarding Carmelo Anthony last year. 

Crazy notions invented by some fan behind a keyboard are a waste of everyone's time. 

There are going to be people trying to slide Dwight Howard to the Lakers, but that's not realistic. To do that would require moving Pau Gasol's massive contract, which no one wants. Between he and Kobe Bryant, there's $45 million owed.

There's no way the Lakers are adding another max contract to that. 

I'm not saying that it's not possible that someone can come up with some convoluted scenario where in their minds it works out for both teams and passes the trade machine. I'm saying that it's probably not as "fair" as you think and that it's highly unlikely that no one is going to be able to put together a better deal. 

Dwight Howard is not going to the Lakers. 

Just like he is not going to the Chicago Bulls. How do I know that? Because there has been not a single word uttered by the Bulls front office indicating that. There have been numerous statements by Gar Forman to indicate that they are looking to add a shooting guard.

The whole "trade for Howard" move is nothing more than blogger speculation without any basis in reality. It makes no sense because the Bulls just rebuilt and did so pretty darn well.

In their first season together, they went to the Eastern Conference Finals and had the NBA's best record. 

You don't flush that success down the toilet because of what happened in the last series with your two best players nursing serious injuries. 

The Bulls aren't trading for Howard because they aren't looking to trade for Howard. Neither are they looking to trade away Luol Deng or Joakim Noah. They are looking to add a finishing stone, not a cornerstone. 

Another type of fan fiction is the "he'll take less money" fiction. Why? In New York they'd love to convince you that Chris Paul would take $5 million less just because he could get so much more in endorsement money. Oh yeah, and he made a wedding toast 15 months ago. 

This, again, is not realistic. Adding Paul, even at only $15 million a year would have the Knicks "Big Three" hauling in $53 million next year. That's going to leave $5 million for the other nine players, and no, you simply can't find nine players who play for the minimum and add them to a roster with three stars. 

Furthermore, it's not sensible to me to assume that Paul, who is a better player than Amare Stoudemire or Carmelo Anthony is going to happily take $5 million less to play for the Knicks. I know they are friends, but if you're hanging your hat on that, why didn't they take less than max deals to make room for Paul like Miami's Big Three did?

I find it very interesting that since Anthony came to his agreement, I haven't heard anymore hints dropped by Paul. 

Now that's not to say that players might not be willing to take less money to play in a certain place or to play for a contender. I'm just saying someone shouldn't assume that. If someone says that, it's safe to acknowledge it. 

So for instance, since Arron Afflalo has said he would play in Chicago for the mid-level exception, we can figure that he would play in Chicago for the mid level-exception. To just assume that of any player would be presumptuous, though. 

In short, there are three things to keep in mind. First, would the trade realistically work for both teams? When I say that I mean would the other team want it?

Second, are both teams actually looking to make a deal involving the key players?

Third, has the player said something that corresponds with what he's "wanting" to do? Saying he wants to play somewhere isn't the same as saying he'd be willing to play for less. 

If you can answer those three questions in the affirmative, it's probably a real rumor, or at the very least reasonable speculation.