NBA Trade Rumors: Dwight Howard and Most Intriguing Player Movement Scenarios
Yes!!!! In my best Marv Albert voice, the NBA is back, I have agreed to let bygones be bygones, and I am awaiting December 9th (the day free agency begins) like a kid on Christmas Eve. Coincidentally, Christmas day is the day the season is set to start...awww, what a nice gift from the NBA to its long-suffering fans.
Saving the season helps teams like Orlando and New Jersey avoid the scenario that could have seen them lose their star players to free-agency, without an opportunity to trade them, and get something in return.
Now, we must prepare for a frenzied NBA trade and free agent period starting on December 9th. Here are the three most intriguing player movement scenarios, and where these players may end up.
Important Facts:
The NBA Salary Cap is 58 million this year and next.
Amnesty Clause will help to free up money to facilitate player movement for teams looking to make a splash.
The Hornets desperately want to keep Paul, but it seems he may already have decided to leave. This handicaps the Hornets in whom they can trade him to, if they decide an extension isn't likely.
Teams aren't going to want to rent Paul, so that limits the Hornets to probably negotiating a deal with the Knicks and possibly the Lakers.
My bet would be the Knicks, if he's moved at all. Paul means a lot to the New Orleans basketball community. He is beloved there and his reputation hasn't taken much of a hit through all of the reports of unhappiness.
I think he has decided to exercise his player option after this year, and the Hornets will have to deal him to New York, which is probably the only place he's willing to sign a long term deal. The expiring contracts of Chauncey Billups, Landry Fields and Bill Walker could get it done.
My probability scenarios would be as follows:
Paul to NY—60 percent
Paul stays and opts out—30 percent
Paul stays and resigns—five percent
Deron Williams
Williams signed the best international contract of any of the NBA players, and most importantly, he didn't get hurt. Now he will return to the NBA, as he had an out in his contract for when the lockout ended.
He will be a free-agent at the end of this season for the futile Nets. New Jersey is not without talent, and they are entering a new building and city in the Brooklyn based Barclays Center.
Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov has some serious chop, so he seems to be the type of owner that could absorb a luxury penalty.
Because of the move, I think the Nets have a good chance to retain the services of Williams and won't get to the stage of serious trade talks.
My probability scenarios would be as follows:
Williams trade—10 percent
Williams re-signs with Nets—70 percent
Williams signs elsewhere after the season—20 percent
The biggest potential mover, both literally and figuratively. Howard is the one player whose landing spot could shift the power in the league. Were he to land in Los Angeles or Chicago, those teams would supplant Miami as the favorites.
The Bulls are unlikely to move the pieces necessary to pull off the deal, and other fringe teams aren't likely to have the supporting cast or superstar to entice Howard. Similar to Paul, the trade suitor must be someone Howard will re-sign with.
It would seem that the Lakers and Bulls would be teams he'd be interested in, but Los Angeles certainly seems to have the edge for several reasons: Howard can be a part of a team that can win now, and with Kobe at 33 years old, Howard would be the cornerstone going forward. It's LA: There is nothing like playing at the Staples Center 41 times a year (well 33 times this year), not to mention that free agents are more apt to sign there.
The Bulls offer a better long term basketball situation, but Chicago always loses in these high profile player acquisition situations.
My probability scenarios would be as follows:
Howard re-signs with Orlando—20 percent
Howard traded to Chicago—five percent
Howard traded to Lakers—50 percent
Howard traded elsewhere—10 percent
Howard signs elsewhere in free agency—15 percent
Either way, it is great to talk about players, without the "if there is a season" disclaimer. Let's go ball!!!
