NBA Free Agency: Why There Won't Be Any Major Trades Before Season Starts

NBA fans are about to be bombarded with trade rumor after trade rumor. Dwight Howard is going here, Chris Paul is going there and so on. The problem is that this year there are a couple of pretty big reasons why it's highly unlikely we'll be seeing any major trades during the limited offseason.

What makes this year different from any other? Primarily there are two things that are very different. First, it's much shorter. Second, there is an amnesty clause in effect. That means that there are more free agents available. 

Players will be bought out and those players will become free agents. The larger free-agent pool correlates with a lower trade market. The last time this kind of deal was done, 1999, there were only three trades, none of which were really "major." Probably the biggest names were Chauncey Billups and Ron Artest, both of whom were yet to break out. 

Essentially, it's a logic thing. Why give up a player and money when you can just give money. 

Don't have it? Well, if you don't have it, you can create it easily enough by buying out your own amnesty players. 

This is where things are different than last time as well. Last time, only teams that were in the luxury tax were given the gift of amnesty. Now every team can get rid of their bad contracts. That makes a big difference. 

It's not certain exactly how many teams will be given the opportunity, but it will be significant. As many as 10 or 15 starting caliber players could be injected into the free agency market. Most of those players will be getting some serious pocket change and many will be willing to play for a mid-level exception. 

The extra players, including some at every position combined with the now-lowered MLE means that the cost of free agents will go down. That means that the contract a team trades for is likely going to have lower value than the one you bought. 

Finally, there's going to be a shorter signing period. There will almost be two free-agent seasons, about three or four days each. Players who are already free agents will go first. Then after they are gone the players who got amnesty will be hitting the free-agent market. 

Normally, teams will wait until they know they can't address their needs in free agency, then hit the trade market. This year they'll try it through free agency, and then if things don't work out there, there will be the second wave of free agents. 

Once that time expires, the season will be about to be underway. There simply won't be time to overhaul a team. 

The other side of a trade is that you are getting rid of players that know your system, and replacing them with players who don't. Additionally they know one another. There is a reason that no team has ever won an NBA title when they made a major in-season trade. 

This is almost like an in-season trade as there is so little time for practice. In fact, the condensed schedule will also cut down on the time for teams to practice during the season as well. 

If you're looking for Orlando to move Dwight Howard, or the Hornets to move Chris Paul in the next 10 days, it's not going to happen. Set your eyes on the free agents to satisfy your teams needs. It's a lot more realistic.