State of the Indianapolis Colts: Peyton Manning Is Here, Andrew Luck Is Coming

The State of the Franchise

It has been stipulated that it is not possible to have Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck on the Colts at the same time.  They say that using the No. 1 pick for a quarterback who would have to wait several years to start is ludicrous. 

Any sports franchise exists at any given time in one of five states: collapse, also-ran, competitive, contender and champion. 

Some teams fall into a collapse quickly, like the Colts this year, the Big Red Machine in 1982, the Dallas Cowboys a couple of times, the San Antonio Spurs in 1997 and when David Stern 911ed the Pacers after the 2004 brawl. 

Some bounce back quickly. 

The Spurs drafted Tim Duncan, and jumped from contender to champion. 

Some remain also-rans for decades, like the Cubs, Lions and Clippers. 

Others take a while. 

It is a lot better for a fanbase to have a competitive team, like the Texans, but it is frustrating when the team cannot rise to the next level.

There is more to the Colts' collapse this year than just losing Manning. 

When the Colts drafted Bob Sanders in Round 2 in 2004, Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden in Rounds 1 and 2 in 2005 and Antwan Bethea came in 2006, the secondary seemed to be set for a long time. 

Now all but Bethea are gone. 

Melvin Bullitt and MLB Gary Brackett went out early. 

The offensive tackles drafted Rounds 1 and 2 this year: one is out and the other missed significant time. 

Two injury-plagued seasons have sent the Colts from contenders to the pits.

Going Forward: Manning or Luck?

Yesterday I saw Manning jerseys at the Colts' pro shop at Castleton Square Mall. 

I have seen some Colts' faithful wearing Luck jerseys instead of paper bags over their heads.

There are those, like Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star, who say that the Colts should trade Manning for draft choices. 

There are two questions I cannot answer: 

The first: Is Manning finished? 

He could be like Sandy Koufax who was abruptly done in 1966 after leading the Dodgers to three championships from 1959-65.  Being the competitor that he is, I can't see him walking away if he can still play. 

The second: Does Manning want to coach? 

He has been a playing coach for years.  When he is not studying film, he is mentoring guys like Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. 

When Reggie Miller walked away, he had no interest in coaching.  It was his perogative. 

If Manning leaves tomorrow, it is his choice and we can all say, "thanks for the memories." 

Jim Caldwell and company do not seem to be a long-term solution.

Worst case scenario: in five years seeing Manning on someone else's sideline, and trading away Luck who goes on to be a champion, like Marshall Faulk, who became All-World in St. Louis. 

So what can happen if they keep Manning and draft Luck? 

Trick plays are something that have been lacking in the Colts' arsenal for years.  They line up the same way on almost every play. 

They got away with it when they had the talent, until they got into the playoffs. 

Having both Manning and Luck could be a Wildcat-nightmare to defend.

When the Colts lost to the Texans on opening day, it was not unexpected. 

When we saw them look awful against the Browns in Week 2, the writing was on the wall: this is going to be a long season. 

1999 to 2010 was a great run. 

What happens between now and the draft will determine success or failure for a long time.

Mediocrity is a nightmare.