Nationals Sign Daniel Cabrera; Wait, Who?

Have you ever heard something so ridiculous that you just dismissed it out of hand without giving it a second thought?

That was me when I heard the news that the Washington Nationals had signed former Oriole Daniel Cabrera to a $2.6 million dollar contract.

It made no sense.

Jim Bowden wouldn't do it.

But, you know what? Jim Bowden did do it. And you know what else?

It actually makes sense. Really.

In essence, the Nats traded pitcher Tim Redding (who was non-tendered last week) for Cabrera. At first blush, it seemed that the team non-tendered one major league fringe pitcher only to replace him with another one.

Why would the Nationals do that?

Tim Redding, who will be 31 at the start of next season, is four years older than Cabrera, and he'll never be any better than he is right now. He first reached the major leagues in 2001 when he and Roy Oswalt both joined the Astros. At the time, Redding and Oswalt were co-phenoms and both were expected to be studs in the Astros' rotation for years to come.

Since then, Redding has gone 34-51, with a 4.92 in his major league career. Oswalt is 129-64, with a 3.13 during that same period.

So much for phenom status.

Tim Redding the journeyman pitcher, not the phenom, has a pretty good fastball that touches 92-93 mph. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of a-l-m-o-s-t 2:1 (and I'm stretching it a bit). But he allows 1.43 base runners per inning, which leads to his career 4.92 ERA.

You can count on Redding to win about as many games as he loses, giving up about five runs a game in the process. That's fine for a fifth starter on a contending team, but Redding was the number two starter for the Nationals in 2008.

The word ugly comes to mind.

On to Daniel Cabrera.

Just the name makes me want to duck out of the batter's box in fear for my life.

This is what TSN.com says about his strengths: "Owns a huge frame with great reach that makes him seem to tower over hitters. Owns a nasty fastball and slider, both with good movement. Can be simply dominant when he gets rolling."

Hmm. Sounds like Cy Young himself.

What about his flaws, though? "As wild and inconsistent as they come. Sometimes totally loses the strike zone. High walk totals hurt him. Can lose focus with both hitters and base-runners."

"An ace-level arm but a back-of-rotation producer" is how TSN sums up Cabrera's abilities.

And they are right, of course. Cabrera's career numbers of 48-59, with a 5.05 ERA is about the same as Redding's, maybe even a little worse (but Cabrera's ERA is a little better if you factor in that he has been an American League pitcher his entire career while Redding has pitched in the National League). And Cabrera's 1.54 base runners per inning is without question worse than Redding.

And my, how those wild pitches add up.

Here are the career wild pitch stats for the 2008 Nationals' starters: John Lanan: One every 30 innings; Matt Chico: 1:27; Tim Redding: 1:30; Jason Bergman: 1:37; Odalis Perez: 1:44; Shawn Hill: 1:48.

Daniel Cabrera has averaged a wild pitch every fourteen innings pitched.

Yuck.

Hit batsmen is another good indicator of control. Again, the Nationals 2008 starters: Colin Balestar: 1:13; John Lanan: 1:24; Tim Redding: 1:24; Shawn Hill: 1:26; Jason Bergman: 1:30; Matt Chico: 1:35.

Daniel Cabrera has averaged a hit batsman every fourteen innings pitched.

Double yuck.

So why sign him?

Because Cabrera is playing at a level nowhere near his ability.

His strikeout to innings ratio has dropped significantly over the last two years due in part to the loss of almost 1.5 mph on his fastball. He struck out 157 in 148 innings in 2006, but just 95 in 190 innings last year. What's worse, he walked 90.

That's not a very good ratio.

But Cabrera has had elbow problems the last couple of years and was "shut down" early in 2008. The injury did not, however, require surgery, and Cabrera is expected to be at 100% by spring training.

There are a lot of if's, but here's why I think Cabrera can still reach his pinnacle.

Sandy Koufax.

No-no-no-no-no. I'm not saying he is Sandy Koufax. What I am saying, however, is that he could be.

The Nationals went up against Daniel Cabrera in a pre-season exhibition game at Orioles Park in 2006 and he made the team look absolutely silly. They saw him again during the regular season and pounded him into the dirt.

I wrote the following at my Nationals' website "The Beltway Boys" on June 24th:

"Cabrera's "stuff" looks electric; I mean, how can a 99 mph fastball not be? His curve, his slider, all the off speed pitches, are top-notch. That said, he seems to get whacked around pretty good each time he takes the mound. One day, he may stop being a thrower and become a pitcher, but, it hasn't happened as of yet.

But it might.

When I was a tiny, tiny lad, I went to a game with my brother at the Los Angeles Coliseum, before Dodger Stadium was completed. I don't remember much, but I do recall this slender, stylish lefty who seemed to be able to throw his fastball through a brick wall.

His curve was so good that when he threw it, my knees buckled.

He lost the game something like 9-1. My brother told me that if he ever learned how to pitch, he'd become great.

Sandy Koufax certainly did.

Koufax "did it" by easing up a bit on the fastball and letting that rainbow curve become his out-pitch.  Cabrera has got all the tools to be dominant, but does he have the desire to change his style?

Time will tell.

So far, nothing has changed.

But it could.

For those who don't remember, Sandy Koufax is a hall of fame pitcher who went 165-87, 2.76 before arthritis cut short his career at 32.

During his first five years with the Dodgers, however, he was...well...Daniel Cabrera-esque. Koufax averaged thirteen base runners per game, the same as Cabrera. Cabrera, who is considered perhaps the wildest pitcher in the game, has a career strikeout to walk ratio of 1.5:1 (anything below 2:1 is pretty bad). Hall of Famer Koufax was even worse at 1.3:1.

For the remaining seven years of his career, however, Koufax averaged right at one base runner per inning, and had a strikeout to walk ratio of 4:1, both unbelievable numbers.

Sandy Koufax became a success because he stopped being a 99 mph thrower and became a pitcher. He stopped relying on his fastball and developed a dominating curve. The rest is history.

No, I'm not saying that Daniel Cabrera can become the next Sandy Koufax. But I am saying that Cabrera, at just 27, has "stuff" similar to Koufax, and if he can reduce his base runners by 20 percent (half of what Koufax did), Cabrera could have seasons where 15-10, 3.50 are the norm.

Or, he could be a day laborer by the time he's 30.

As I said back in 2006: time will tell.