The Biggest Surprise for Every NFL Team This Season

Now that we are preparing to watch NFL action in Week 12, which includes sharing Thanksgiving with family and friends, it also means we have seen enough games from the 2011 season to start drawing some conclusions about identifying the biggest surprise so far for every NFL team.

It should be noted that surprises can come in many different shapes and forms. Think of surprises when you watch the facial changes and listen to the audible reactions as the people sitting around you at Thanksgiving start sampling all the various dishes and different courses of the meal. Surprises can come in many forms, including mild, bad, scary, pleasant, good and big.

Today we are going to focus on the biggest surprise for every NFL team to date. It could be a veteran player, rookie, coach or unit of a team that is really surprising us. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Arizona Cardinals

Patrick Peterson is as good as advertised. He can make plays on the ball, and he is a terrific punt returner. There are good reasons why he was a high first-round draft pick.

However, for my money, the biggest surprise on the Arizona Cardinals has to be second-year quarterback John Skelton. Skelton saw action in five games as a rookie last year with the Cardinals, but his performance wasn't very inspiring.

With the trade for Kevin Kolb from the Philadelphia Eagles, Skelton was relegated to the backup role, and Kolb took the majority of reps with the first team. In his seven starts so far for the Cardinals, Kolb has led the team to one win, and while he passed for more than 300 yards on opening day, he has not duplicated the feat ever since.

For Skelton, he came in off the bench and was able to throw for 300 yards against a talented Eagles secondary. Not only that, but Skelton went 2-0 in his first two starts, winning at home in overtime and following that up by winning on the road.

Biggest Cardinals surprise is quarterback John Skelton.

Atlanta Falcons

When the Atlanta Falcons surrendered five draft picks to the Cleveland Browns at the 2011 NFL draft for Julio Jones, they had a certain level of expectations for not just Jones, but for the entire Falcons offense.

To refresh your memory, those five picks were three selections in 2011 (overall picks 27, 59 and 124) and then the first-round and fourth-round draft picks from the 2012 NFL draft.

The expectations were high. The Falcons offense was supposed to take off to new heights, and Roddy White would see a spike in his production due to the focus being placed on Jones.

How has all that worked out so far?

Matt Ryan threw 28 touchdown passes last year. Right now he is on pace to throw 24. Ryan completed 62.5 percent of his passes in 2010. This year, it has dropped to 60.8 percent.

White averaged 7.1 catches per game in 2010. This year, that number has dropped to 5.4 catches per game. In 2010, White scored 10 touchdowns. This year, only three.

The Falcons offense scored 25.9 points per game in 2010. This year, it has dropped to 23.5 points per game.

There is no doubt Jones is a talented player, and it is a shame he has been injured for portions of the season. But here we are entering Week 12, and Jones has only one more catch (30) than Harry Douglas (29). Jones has two touchdowns on the year.

If you review all of the evidence above, it is safe to say the lack of impact on the Falcons offense after acquiring Jones is the biggest surprise in 2011.

Baltimore Ravens

Wide receivers typically break out in their third year in the league, but it hasn't taken rookie wide receiver Torrey Smith that long to make a big impact on the Baltimore Ravens.

Smith was drafted in the second round, and after a quiet first month (he started out with either no catches or just one catch in three of his first four games), he has since come on to become a major threat and producer for the Ravens.

Smith has caught at least three passes in every game since Week 6. This past Sunday, he went up against a good Cincinnati Bengals defense and caught six passes for 165 yards, averaging a whopping 27.5 yards per catch, and caught the game-winning score.

Smith leads the Ravens in touchdown receptions, even though he is No. 4 on the team in receptions. He has already caught 11 passes of at least 20 yards, trailing Anquan Boldin by just one catch in that category.

Smith is the biggest surprise for the Ravens in 2011.

Buffalo Bills

Many NFL fans around the country might be surprised by the hot start to the season by Fred Jackson and Ryan Fitzpatrick. But for the Bills' faithful followers, they knew that Jackson has just been continuing to do what he started doing years ago. People hadn't been allowed to see Jackson flourish before because he was sharing the backfield with Marshawn Lynch.

For Fitzpatrick, Bills fans had seen enough of the quarterback in action in 2009 and in 2010 to know what he was capable of doing. The growth he was experiencing at quarterback was the result of getting a chance to start not just from week to week, but staying in the same offense from one year to the next.

But to me, the biggest surprise is seeing the Bills offense fall apart in the last three weeks under head coach Chan Gailey. Yes, the Bills were handicapped on Sunday due to losing center Eric Wood to the IR. The Bills apparently do not have a Plan B offense, because it was clear in practice last week that Andy Levitre was having trouble making the snaps back to Fitzpatrick in the spread-offense alignment.

So why did Gailey not install something else to do on offense? What is he going to do to create plays for the wide receivers to get free so that Fitzpatrick has an open target to throw to?

The Bills were riding high at 5-2 after shutting out the Redskins, but since then the offense has no resemblance to the unit that was playing for the first seven weeks. The Jets showed how to slow them down, and everybody has been able to copy the same scheme since. The Bills have the Jets again this Sunday. If Gailey is the offensive mastermind everybody claims him to be, he will figure out something to do on offense by taking advantage of the players he has.

With Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller, Brad Smith, David Nelson, Steve Johnson and Scott Chandler, the Bills have enough athletes to move the ball. But to go 0-of-12 on third down against the Dolphins? COME ON, CHAN.

Carolina Panthers

Nobody really knew what to expect of Cam Newton's rookie season. We all knew that he was an outstanding athlete, but could his natural talents translate to the NFL? How about his ego? Could he exhibit enough work ethic, stay hungry and keep working at his craft to improve every week?

Enough time has passed in the season to say that Cam Newton is the biggest surprise on the Carolina Panthers this year. He has stayed out of trouble, continued to focus on football and been a model citizen all season.

In terms of his quarterback play, Newton began the year throwing for 422 and then 432 yards in his first two games. Child's play, right? Since then, Newton has topped 300 passing yards just one time in eight games. Newton is No. 6 in the NFL with 365 pass attempts. He is tied for No. 10 in pass completions with Matt Ryan at 219. He is No. 6 in the NFL in yardage with 2,885. Newton is ranked No. 7 with 7.90 yards per pass attempt.

The only real negatives are the overall record of 2-8, but this is a team that has a long way to go to turn around its fortunes. Newton has been sacked 23 times and is tied at No. 4 in the NFL with 14 interceptions. There is still plenty of room for his game to grow, but despite the flaws, Newton has been a very pleasant surprise.

Chicago Bears

Matt Forte has been able to raise his game to a new level in 2011. Despite being unhappy about his contract situation with the Bears, Forte has been able to separate the financial side from the football side and has played his best football this year.

Looking at Forte's production, you can see a steady rise. In 2009, Forte was ranked No. 18 in rushing with 929 yards on the season. He averaged 58.1 yards per game, scored four touchdowns and averaged 3.6 yards per rush.

In 2010, Forte improved to become the No. 15 rusher in the league with 1,069 yards on 237 rushes, averaging 4.5 yards per rush. Forte scored only six touchdowns but improved to 66.8 yards per game.

Now in 2011, Forte has jumped up to No. 4 in rushing in the league. In 186 rushes, he has gained 926 yards, which means he is up to a 5.0-yard average per rush. The touchdowns are still low at only three on the year, but Forte is averaging 92.6 yards rushing per game.

The other surprising aspect of Forte's game this year is his receiving skills. In the past three years, Forte has gained 477, 471 and 547 yards respectively in reception yards. This year? Forte is on pace to gain 744 yards.

Now, with the broken thumb injury to Jay Cutler, the Bears will be relying on Forte even more. I hope the Bears do the right thing and pay the man.

Cincinnati Bengals

When it became apparent that Carson Palmer was not coming back, it was a given that Andy Dalton would be the Bengals' starting quarterback, but nobody really knew what to actually expect from him in his rookie season.

If any Bengals rookie was going to shine, the smart money would have been on the wide receiver standout rookie A.J. Green.

But now that 10 games are in the books, we can look over the body of work Dalton has produced and state very safely he has been the biggest surprise on the Bengals' season to date.

Sure, Dalton wasn't able to lead the Bengals to a victory over AFC North rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers or Baltimore Ravens in the last two weeks, but the Bengals were beaten by only seven points in both games. Dalton kept the Bengals in each game, and it is his level of competitive spirit that keeps the Bengals fired up and thinking that they have a chance to win.

The future looks bright for Dalton, as it does for the Bengals. He still could use some more weapons, so hopefully Mike Brown turns some of those Raiders draft picks into players that Dalton will be able to plug into the offense and keep the offense growing.

At 6-4, the Bengals are still in the playoff picture, and isn't that all you can ask of a rookie quarterback?

By the way, Mike Brown backing out of his promise to never trade Carson Palmer could have easily been the biggest surprise of the Bengals season. I chose to take the higher road.

Cleveland Browns

You can call it the result of the "Madden Curse" if you want to, but the fact remains that the lost season of Cleveland Browns running back Peyton Hillis is the biggest surprise of the 2011 season.

Hillis went from being an obscure running back in Denver with a season high of 343 rushing yards to becoming a 1,000-plus-yard running back with the Cleveland Browns in 2010, earning him the front cover of EA Sports' Madden NFL 12.

In 2010, Hillis gained 1,177 yards on 270 rushes, gaining an average of 4.4 yards per carry. Between rushing touchdowns (11) and receiving touchdowns (two), Hillis was a key integral part of the Browns offense.

Now, here we are in 2011, and Hillis has gained just 211 rushing yards on the season. From 13 touchdowns last year, he has now scored just once this year. Sure, there have been injuries that help to explain the lack of production, but even Hillis' attitude has been questioned by the team. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, it will not be considered a surprise if the Browns let Hillis walk after his contract expires this year.

The fact that the Browns will let a key offensive weapon go might be the biggest surprise of all.

Dallas Cowboys

In his rookie season, Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray has gone from backup to starter and from starter to cracking the top-10 rushing list in the NFL. Not too bad for a rookie debut.

Murray is currently ranked No. 9 in the NFL with 747 yards in 125 rushes. It seems like he jumps another two notches every week now. He is averaging 6.0 yards per rush and 74.7 rushing yards per game.

Murray had a four-game streak going where he had gained 10.1, 9.3, 6.3 and 6.8 yards per rush. That is just an amazing stretch. The Redskins finally found a way to slow him down last Sunday (he averaged 2.9 yards per rush against them), so it will be interesting to see how he rebounds this week.

The emergence of Murray allows Tony Romo to be more effective in the passing game by play-faking to Murray. Defenses have to be worried about trying to contain the rookie, which should allow Romo more time to look for an open receiver, and you should see his numbers continue to shine as long as Murray continues to excel at running the ball.

Denver Broncos

You would think there would be one Broncos player we could use as a big surprise. Hmmm. Who could I possibly plug in? What, there is somebody you think I could use? Oh well. I guess so.

End of suspense.

Of course, the biggest surprise for the Denver Broncos has to be the play of Tim Tebow and how he is able to lead the Broncos to one win after another by running the option offense.

I have nothing against Tebow. He seems like a very bright young man, and I also like that he is in touch with his spiritual side. No problems with any of that. It is just the way he attempts to throw the ball and how inaccurate he is with his passes that drives me crazy.

However, the bottom line is he continues to lead the team to wins, and if you are a quarterback, is there anything more important that your win-loss record?

Since Tebow has taken over the controls of the Broncos offense, he has led the Broncos to four wins in the last five games. I seriously had my doubts about his ability to be effective against better NFL defenses, but when he led the Broncos down the field for the winning touchdown against the New York Jets defense, I had to tip my hat to him and say job well done.

How long can this run continue? I imagine that some defenses will keep trying to cope by running different schemes until something works to slow Tebow down, and then the Broncos will have to make the necessary adjustments. Until then, you know that Tebow will continue to have the Broncos and their fans believing they are going to keep winning every week.

Detroit Lions

To me, the biggest surprise of the Detroit Lions in 2011 is that quarterback Matthew Stafford is still healthy and hasn't missed a game yet this year.

Lions fans might be interested in citing the performances of certain players, but to me Stafford is the key to the team, and as long as he continues to stay healthy and in the lineup each week, the team has the chance to continue making its run towards the playoffs.

After a hot 5-0 start, Stafford and the Lions proceeded to lose three of their next four games, leading into the game last Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. Detroit fell behind the 2-8 Panthers 27-14 at halftime, but Stafford kept his composure and led the team to a 35-7 surge in the second half to defeat the Panthers 49-35.

To his credit Stafford has now strung two 300-yard passing games together for the first time this year, so he continues to grow. You have to remember that he only played in 10 games in 2009 and three games in 2010. Now that he has started 23 games in his career, that puts him at roughly 1.5 years of NFL experience in actual games played.

Green Bay Packers

The biggest surprise to me about the Green Bay Packers in 2011 is that there doesn't appear to be any degree of a Super Bowl hangover. They have taken on all comers and are still sitting perfect at 10-0.

Sure, Tampa Bay gave them a little scare on Sunday, but the Packers found a way to pull away when they needed to in the second half to keep their perfect season intact.

It will be interesting to see what the Packers decide to do if they are still perfect after Week 15 with a 14-0 record. They still have two games to go, and this is the time of year the Colts would begin reserving Peyton Manning for playing only in the first half of games to preserve him for the playoffs. Just take a look at what happened these past two weekends with Jay Cutler, Michael Vick, Matt Schaub and Matt Hasselbeck getting hurt.

Aaron Rodgers continues to play at an MVP level. He is my favorite player right now to win the MVP this year. Week in and week out, the Packers come out and play their own brand of football and don't sink to the level of their competition. That is the mark of a great team.

It remains to be seen what they will do down the stretch run. If they do happen to lose one game over the next three or four weeks, it might be one of the best things that could happen to them, all things being considered equal.

Houston Texans

Nobody knew for sure how Ben Tate would come back from his lost rookie season after fracturing his ankle and missing the entire 2010 season. But Tate has lived up to his hype by currently being ranked the No. 11 rusher in the NFL, right behind teammate Arian Foster, thanks to generating 686 rushing yards so far on the year.

Tate is averaging 5.6 yards per rush, and now that the Texans have lost Matt Schaub to injury, it will be vital that Foster and Tate stay healthy to help carry the load for the Texans down the stretch.

While Tate is a pleasant surprise, the biggest surprise for me has to be the amazing turnaround of the Houston Texans defense under defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. It has been a startling turnaround, to say the least.

In 2010, the Texans defense ranked No. 30 overall in the NFL, allowing 376.9 yards per game. The defense allowed 26.7 points to be scored on it per game.

Now, one season later, the Texans have become the No. 1 overall defense in the NFL. They have trimmed more than 100 yards per game off their average, bringing the total down to 269.7 yards per game. The defense has also trimmed more than 10 points off its average, cutting it down to 16.6 points per game.

If there were an award for outstanding coordinator/coach of the year, it would have to go to Wade Phillips.

Indianapolis Colts

I suppose I could write about how surprising it is that the Indianapolis Colts are playing as terrible as they are or how surprising it is that head coach Jim Caldwell still has a job. Maybe I could speculate about how surprising it might be to determine which college teams the Colts were capable of beating this year.

Everyone else is doing that right now, so I am going to go in a different direction.

Instead, I prefer to talk about linebacker Pat Angerer. Angerer was drafted at the bottom of Round 2 in the 2010 NFL draft (pick 63). He appeared in every game as a rookie and managed to play well enough that he got some starts in his rookie season and racked up 88 tackles.

This year, Angerer has taken his game to another level. As of this weekend, Angerer leads the entire NFL in tackles with 105 and is on a current pace to generate 168 tackles, which would be quite a jump from his rookie campaign. While some Colts could be accused of mailing in the rest of the season, it is clear Angerer is not one of them.

Jacksonville Jaguars

What is the biggest surprise to me about the 2011 Jacksonville Jaguars? It would be an insult to Maurice Jones-Drew to say I am surprised he is currently ranked as the No. 2 running back in the NFL because Jones-Drew has been good for many years. This is not a surprising development, especially when you consider that a rookie quarterback is running the offense and they want to keep it conservative.

The thing that surprised me the most about the Jaguars was that there actually is a quarterback that doesn't throw for as many yards as Tim Tebow, who is the antithesis of a throwing quarterback.

There were the results—as shocking as they are—that in Week 7 Tebow threw for 161 yards and Gabbert threw for only 93. Then in Week 8, Tebow again topped him, 172 to 97—not even close.

Somebody must have tipped Gabbert and the Jaguars that I was taking notes, because in the last two weeks the tables have turned. In Week 10 Gabbert threw for 118 yards, while Tebow only managed 69, and then in Week 11 Gabbert exploded for 210 yards while Tebow pulled in at 104.

The point of all this is that if the Jaguars are going to let Gabbert grow, then take off the handcuffs. Let him play. He is going to make his mistakes, but it is not like the Jaguars are going to the playoffs or anything like that. Next.

Kansas City Chiefs

The biggest surprise to me about the 2011 Kansas City Chiefs is how streaky this team has become. The Chiefs were decimated by injuries to start out the year, weathered the storm to put a nice little run together and now are in the midst of another losing streak.

The Chiefs began with a three-game losing streak, won four games in a row and dropped their third game in a row when Tyler Palko squared off against Tom Brady on Monday Night Football in a 34-3 loss this week.

The Chiefs did very well to piece together a four-game winning streak, but now I am wondering how they pulled that off. The AFC West is still a very bunched-up division, so if any team finds a way to go on a prolonged winning streak, it would have a great chance to take the division.

One of the more encouraging surprises is the emergence of Jackie Battle at running back, who has taken over for the injured Jamaal Charles. Battle has rushed the ball 95 times for 436 yards and an average of nearly 4.6 yards per rush.

Miami Dolphins

The biggest surprise of the 2011 season is that the Miami Dolphins didn't fire head coach Tony Sparano when the team started out 0-7. To their credit, they stuck with Sparano (because he was under contract?) and are now the proud owners of a three-game winning streak.

The Dolphins played a very solid game this past Sunday, excelling on offense, defense and special teams in their thrashing of the Buffalo Bills.

I watched quarterback Matt Moore run a balanced offense yesterday, and he didn't make any mistakes with his passes or throw the ball into bad coverage situations. Then again, since the Bills didn't offer up any pass rush to speak of, he had all day to find his open receivers. (Just keeping it real here, folks.)

The interesting thing to discover is what will happen in 2012. Let's say Moore leads the Dolphins to a .500 record the rest of the year. Moore is still under contract to Miami for the 2012 season. Will the Dolphins bring back Chad Henne to compete with Moore for the starting job? Or will the Dolphins still try to draft a franchise quarterback in the 2012 NFL draft?

Minnesota Vikings

One of the biggest surprises coming out of the Minnesota Vikings in 2011 is the rather quick development of Christian Ponder. Please understand, we are not talking about fully developed to the point that he is an All-Pro quarterback. We are talking about developed to the point he is able to run the Vikings offense and sustain drives better than his predecessor, Donovan McNabb.

Coming into the recent game against the Green Bay Packers, Ponder had led the Vikings offense to go 10-of-16 in third-down opportunities. That is impressive. For what it's worth, the Vikings had gone 4-of-17 in third-down conversions when McNabb was running the show.

If that difference doesn't strike you as surprising, I am not sure what would, given the difference in years of experience between the two quarterbacks.

Granted, Ponder will have some rocky bumps along the road, as he did against the Packers, but the team will ultimately be better off with him gaining the valuable experience that he is now. Now, if the Vikings can only surround him with some more viable weapons, he will be in business.

New England Patriots

There are a number of surprises regarding the current situation with the New England Patriots, so I am not sure exactly where to start first.

The biggest surprise to me has to be that a team coached by Bill Belichick could have an overall defense that is ranked dead last in the NFL and that it would be allowing more than 400 yards of offense on average per game. What is wrong with this picture? Plenty. 

The next surprise in order of slightly less of a surprise is that with such a weak defense, how could this team still be in first place? The other seven division leaders' defenses, just to give you an idea, are ranked as follows: Houston (No. 1, 269.7 yards per game), Baltimore (No. 4, 304.5), San Francisco (No. 8, 323.1), Dallas (No. 10, 328.6), New Orleans (No. 20, 361.4), Oakland (No. 24, 371.7) and Green Bay (No. 30, 391.8).

I imagine it would be fitting for Green Bay with the No. 30 defense to go up against the No. 32 defense in New England in the Super Bowl. It could then be advertised as the wildest offensive outburst in Super Bowl history.

The final surprise is that wide receiver Chad Ochocinco is still on the team and that he has not followed Albert Haynesworth out of the Patriots' revolving door by now.

New Orleans Saints

In doing research for this article, I stumbled across this little statistical oddity I thought I would share with readers. The New Orleans Saints have perfected the running-back-by-committee concept to the tune that they have made it an equal time-share proposition.

Coming into Week 12, there are only eight yards that separate the three leading rushers on the Saints. They are ranked in order on the NFL rushing leader board, and I don't know if I have ever seen something like that before. They are Darren Sproles (No. 36, 348 rushing yards) and Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram (tied for No. 37, 340 yards each).

What is different between the three backs is how they have arrived at those totals. The number of carries and average yards per rush are far different. Sproles has the fewest carries (51) and the highest average (6.8 yards per rush). Thomas is averaging 4.7 yards per rush on 72 carries, while Ingram is averaging only 3.7 yards per rush on 93 rushes.

Now that we have that out of the way, we can focus on my biggest surprise: tight end Jimmy Graham. Graham is the top tight end in football. He is leading the Saints in the following categories: receptions, receiving yardage, catches of 20-plus yards, touchdown receptions and average yardage per game. He is No. 2 in regards to average yardage per catch.

Very impressive season for Graham.

New York Giants

The emergence of New York Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz has been the most surprising thing to me about the Giants this season.

Cruz has gone from an undrafted rookie free agent to leading the team in receptions, receiving yardage and touchdowns—a remarkable story. Then there is the dancing in the end zone after scoring, but that makes him more fun to watch.

Cruz has caught at least six passes in each of the last four games and over that span has gained at least 84 yards in each game. The fact that he beat Nnamdi Asomugha for a big touchdown on Sunday is just one more feather in his hat. Cruz appears to be the real deal.

If it weren't for the emergence of Cruz, my biggest surprise was going to be Jake Ballard, who has also come on to be a big surprise for the Giants. Averaging 16.4 yards per catch, he is helping to open up the field for the wide receivers, as well as for quarterback Eli Manning.

New York Jets

The biggest surprise isn't that difficult. I am surprised the New York Jets were a good enough team for Rex Ryan to guarantee they would be a Super Bowl team, yet after 10 games, they are only a .500 team. How is possible that Ryan has coached them to such a poor record since they were that good? That is a big surprise.

OK, I am slightly reaching for a positive surprise out of the disappointing season to date, so I will have to focus on Aaron Maybin. I have personally been blasting him for the past two years for sucking a small Brinks truck filled with cash out of Ralph Wilson's bank account and not having contributed a thing in two years with the Buffalo Bills.

However, if you look over the Jets' stats, you will see that Maybin is the proud owner of three sacks this year, the first three sacks of his NFL career. I don't know how many he will come up with on the year, but the way that he played against the Bills earlier this year in no way resembled the way he ever played in Buffalo.

Oakland Raiders

For Oakland Raiders rookie wide receiver Denarius Moore, it seems like he has not had to suffer the traditional rookie growing pains to learn how to step in and contribute in the NFL.

Moore showed flashes of brilliance in the preseason and then continued to demonstrate how good he was in the regular season. Moore leads Raiders wide receivers in pass targets, average yardage per catch (17.1 yards) and 20-plus-yard catches (nine) and is second on the team in pass receptions, reception yardage and first downs from a catch (20).

Moore has one game of more than 100 yards with Jason Campbell and now has one with Carson Palmer as well. That is a good sign that he can prove to work with multiple quarterbacks and that they know he will make a play on the ball if they give him a chance.

Philadelphia Eagles

At 4-6, the Philadelphia Eagles aren't mathematically eliminated yet, but with the amount of talent this team has, the biggest surprise is that this team is not running away with the NFC East division.

Some players are less team-oriented than others, and we all know that unless you have somebody pulling on the same rope in the same direction, it is hard to get to where you want to go. That pretty well sums up what is going on in Philadelphia. Not everybody is pulling in the same direction.

Michael Vick gets hurt and decides he shouldn't tell anybody he is hurt. DeSean Jackson doesn't show up for a team meeting and has to be disciplined to sit out a game. Nnamdi Asomugha gets beat by second-year receiver Victor Cruz.

The point is that with all this talent and the limited training camp time available to work everything into a cohesive unit, the issue shouldn't have been can we really amass all of this talent, but to instead ask if it could all fit together into a team. They should know the answers to those questions over the next two to three weeks.

Pittsburgh Steelers

It is somewhat harder for me to draw a conclusion on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Looking at their schedule this year, they play against seven quality opponents and have nine games against lesser opponents. The seven quality games are Baltimore twice, Cincinnati twice, San Francisco, New England and Houston. In the first half they went 2-3 in their five games against quality teams, which is a red flag.

The second red flag, and the one that is the biggest surprise, is that the Steelers are tied for dead last in the NFL with the highest negative turnover ratio of minus-10. They have turned the ball over 16 times via nine interceptions and seven fumbles.

If the minus-10 ratio is scary enough, consider another red flag. No defense in the NFL has created fewer turnovers than the Steelers', which has forced just six on the year. What happened to the Steelers defense of 2010 that took the ball away 35 times? At their current pace, the Steelers will come up with 10 turnovers for the year, quite a drop-off from 35.

The Steelers averaged 120 rushing yards a game in 2010, and that number has dropped to 109.8 yards in 2011. When I look at all the issues addressed here, I just see too many red flags to think they can go all the way this year in the AFC.

San Diego Chargers

The biggest surprise for me with the San Diego Chargers this year is trying to understand what is wrong with Philip Rivers. Rivers has thrown at least one interception in nine of the 10 Chargers games so far this year. He has also thrown at least two interceptions in seven of the 10 games this year.

Consider that in 2008 and 2009, Rivers had a 3:1 ratio of touchdown passes to interceptions. He was well above a 2:1 ratio in 2010 as well. Since he became a starting quarterback, he has never thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. This year? Fifteen touchdown passes to 17 interceptions.

His current QB passer rating is 81.1, which represents the lowest mark of his career since he became a starter. In facing the New York Jets, he completed only 50 percent of his passes, and against the suspect Oakland Raiders secondary it was even worse, with just 48 percent completed.

Week after week Rivers takes the postgame press conference podium and proclaims nothing is physically wrong with him. He is fine, and he is just making some bad decisions. Maybe it is time to stop asking questions about his physical health and find out if there is some other reason for his bad year. It could be mental, emotional, psychological—who knows? Is his confidence shaken or gone?

All I know is the Philip Rivers we have come to expect is missing in action, and it appears he is nowhere to be found.

San Francisco 49ers

The biggest surprise regarding the improved play of the San Francisco 49ers is not only how well the team has responded to head coach Jim Harbaugh, but how well quarterback Alex Smith has played under the new coach.

From a 6-10 finish in 2010 to a 9-1 record in 2011, the 49ers' turnaround has been quite remarkable. They are playing with as much confidence and poise as any team in the NFL, and it is clear they are playing as a unified team.

That will be put to the test on Thanksgiving when they face another quality opponent in the Baltimore Ravens and the unique pairing of the brothers Harbaugh coaching against each other.

The bad taste Mike Singletary left is no longer around. The 49ers are running away with the NFC West and can start to use the final third of the season to start preparing for how they want to approach the playoffs, because nobody is going to be catching them in their division.

Smith has made some subtle changes to his game, but they have left an impact on the team for the better. His completion percentage has gone up from 59 percent to 62.4 percent this year. He threw 14 touchdowns to 10 interceptions in 2010; this year the ratio is 10 touchdowns to only four interceptions. The QB passer rating has gone from 82.1 last year (No. 21 in NFL) to 93.9 (No. 7 in the league).

Smith only has to do so much for the 49ers to keep winning. They have a top-10 running back in Frank Gore and a defense that allows the fewest points per game in the NFL (14.5 points per game). That is a winning formula, and it looks like the 49ers are poised to make some noise in the playoffs.

Seattle Seahawks

You look at the 4-6 Seattle Seahawks team, and when you see that record you immediately want to dismiss them due to the poor record. That and the fact they made the playoffs with a 7-9 record last year probably still makes you think poorly of them.

However, included in those four wins are two wins against very good teams, the Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants. The biggest surprise to me is that the Seahawks could score 22 points against a defense as good as Baltimore and then only score 15 points combined against the other three AFC North teams.

That is hard to imagine.

Marshawn Lynch, however, has run very well during the past three games, as he cranked out games of 135 rushing yards, followed by 109 and 88. But you really never know what you are going to get one week to the next from the Seahawks passing attack, as Tarvaris Jackson is just as likely to throw for 150 to 170 passing yards as he will throw for over 300 yards in a game.

The Seahawks play good, solid defense, as they are ranked No. 11 overall and are giving up just 20.9 points per game, which is a very respectable figure. They just need to add more weapons to the offense to be more competitive.

St. Louis Rams

Three, two and one. Of those three options off of the top of your head, how many games this year has Sam Bradford passed for more than 300 yards? How many times has Steven Jackson rushed for more than 100 yards in 2011? How many Rams receivers have topped 100 yards in receptions this season?

The answers: Jackson has three rushing games of more than 100 yards, Bradford has two passing games of more than 300 yards and only one receiver has topped 100 yards this year, and that was Danario Alexander (122 yards). That is just not enough production to be effective, and that is just one of the reasons the Rams find themselves struggling again this year with a 2-8 record.

The good news is that they will be getting help in the 2012 NFL draft. The bad news is that the other players have a hard time staying healthy. It feels like I am constantly reading about one injured Rams player after another injured Rams player all season long.

When I pulled up the Rams roster on their home page, the biggest surprise was finding out they only have nine players on IR. I had already braced myself for expecting to see something in the 15 to 20 range, possibly higher.

There is always next year, Rams fans.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Everybody was impressed with the job that Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris did for his team last year, when he turned a 3-13 team from 2009 into a 10-6 contender in 2010.

The Bucs were able to sneak up on some teams last year, but this year everybody was ready for them, so could Morris do the job to allow the Bucs to continue moving forward?

After 10 games, we have our answer: He couldn't. The Bucs have already lost as many games as they did for all of the 2010 season, and the only way they can match last year is to close out with a 6-0 record, which I don't see happening.

When I watch the highlights of Tampa Bay games, I just don't see players that seem to be on the same page or playing as one big family unit like they did last year.

The problems facing Morris are on both sides of the ball. The Bucs offense scored 21.3 points last year, and this year the number has slipped to 18.2 points per game. The Bucs defense was ranked No. 17 in 2010, allowing 332.7 yards per game. This year? It's 31st in the NFL, giving up 398.9 yards per game, which is an increase of 66 yards per game. That is a big drop and can easily be identified as the biggest surprise for the Bucs in 2011.

Tennessee Titans

The biggest surprise to me about the Tennessee Titans in 2011 is that Chris Johnson is still not a major factor in the offense after 11 weeks.

We are all aware of the well-publicized contract holdout Johnson staged. He finally got things in time for the regular season but did not really practice with the team leading up to the start of the 2011 campaign.

Everyone figured it would take him maybe three to four weeks to round himself back into shape and run like the Chris Johnson of old. Well, after the results from Week 11 came in—13 yards on 12 carries against the Atlanta Falcons—it is safe to say Johnson has been the biggest surprise, as in the biggest possible disappointment.

Maybe he knew he had to hold out because his body had taken too much pounding over the first three years and he knew that he wasn't going to be the same kind of player any longer.

You have to wonder when you look at how his average has been in a downward spiral for the last three years running—from 5.6 yards per rush in 2009 to 4.3 in 2010 to 3.2 yards per rush in 2011.

Johnson scored 14 touchdowns in 2009, 11 in 2010 and just two this year. His rushing yards have gone the same way: 2,006 in 2009, down to 1,364 in 2010 and now just 509 in 2011.

I wonder if Tennessee left itself with an escape clause because it looks like it will need one.

Washington Redskins

We know Mike Shanahan is in rebuilding mode with the Washington Redskins, but the biggest surprise has to be the gigantic egg the Redskins laid up in Toronto in Week 8 when they were shut out by the Buffalo Bills 23-0.

It was the first time a Mike Shanahan team had ever been shut out in his NFL coaching career. The Redskins gave up 10 sacks that game to one of the worst pass-rushing defenses currently in the NFL.The Bills have 16 sacks on the year, which means in the other nine games this year they have totaled six sacks.

If all of that isn't embarrassing enough, consider this is the same Buffalo Bills team that then proceeded to go out on a three-game road trip and get outscored 106-18. The losing margin of 88 points for the Bills is the worst three-game running total in the history of the Bills organization. That is the same team that shut out the Redskins. Case closed.