Big 10 Power Rankings: What We Learned in Week 12

Week 12 has come and gone, and now we are starting to get clear answers to the questions posed through the season.

Michigan State, Wisconsin and Penn State have been the closest things the conference has had to favorites all year, and despite ups and downs, two of the three will play for the conference title in Indianapolis in two weeks.

Michigan and Ohio State have shown themselves to be two programs moving in opposite directions.  The Wolverines come out of a period of instability back towards being a team capable of winning big matchups in November, and the Buckeyes enter into a period of disarray following their massive coaching change. The next game can either confirm Michigan's resurgence or save Ohio State's season.

Indiana and Minnesota have proven themselves to be at least four years away from once again being competitive in the Big Ten.  Despite Minnesota's surprise victory over Iowa, both teams have continually shown a large talent gap and an inability to put together a full game against a quality Big Ten opponent.

Illinois has proven, once again, that Ron Zook is the terrible flesh-eating-disease of football coaches and should be avoided at all costs.

Northwestern, Purdue and Iowa have shown that sometimes a program has to knock on the door for a while before breaking through to a higher plane of existence.

And Nebraska has proven that a Big XII team can't just come into the Big Ten and teach all us sorry Midwesterners a thing or two about how to play football.

With one week left before the inaugural Big Ten championship, what answers will we get?

12. Indiana (1-10, 0-7) (12)

Last Week: Lost to Michigan State 55-3

There were reports that a game of football was supposed to happen between the Michigan State Spartans and the Indiana Hoosiers on Saturday.  No witnesses from Indiana could be reached for comment.

While someone did accrue statistics under the guise of the elusive "Hoosier"—and points were even scored—it is most likely that the real Hoosiers didn't show up for this one.  At least that's how the postgame wrap-up reads.  Michigan State scored 17 points in each of its first two quarters on the way to shutting this one down, oh, somewhere in the second quarter.

Since this is a discussion of Indiana's place in this list, a quick look at the stats.  The Hoosiers only gained 237 yards in the game on 3.4 yards per play.  Tre Roberson threw for only 93 yards with two interceptions while running for only 13 more yards.  Stephen Houston had 39 yards on 13 carries.  Indiana was only able to convert three of its 15 third-down attempts.

There is little to take from this game that is positive if you are an Indiana fan.  The Hoosiers were outplayed in every area of the game.  This was a chance for Kevin Wilson's bunch to build positive momentum going into a final week showdown with Purdue.  Instead, Indiana was laughed off the field early and often on Saturday.  

The chance still remains for Indiana to get its second win of the season, but at this point a win against Purdue is about the equivalent of putting a Band-Aid on a broken arm.  The problems in Indiana run deep.  Good luck, Kevin.

Next Week: vs. Purdue

11. Minnesota (2-9, 1-6) (11)

Last Week: Lost to Northwestern 28-13

The Gophers had a one-quarter defensive lapse, and that was all it took to surrender a lead to Northwestern that Minnesota wouldn't be able to overcome.

Minnesota allowed Northwestern to score on each of the Wildcats first three drives of the game, and those three scores would be more than enough against a Minnesota offense that struggled the whole game to find the end zone.

MarQueis Gray completed just over 40% of his passes for 124 yards and one interception against one of the worst secondaries in the conference.  However, it was on the ground that Minnesota was able to do most of its damage.  Gray ran for 147 yards and a touchdown while Duane Bennett ran for 127 yards.  

Despite a 5.2 yards per carry average and seven third-down conversions in 15 tries, Minnesota was only able to score one touchdown on the day.  Two drives stalled and yielded field goals, but three second-half possessions went more than 40 yards and ended in a turnover (one interception, one fumble, one turnover on downs).

A large issue for Minnesota in this one was special teams.  Two of Northwestern's first-quarter touchdown drives started in Minnesota territory, and the third was close, all due to returns.  The only long field Northwestern turned into a touchdown drive was the 80 yards Northwestern went in the end of the third quarter following an interception in the end zone—effectively slamming the door shut on any hope of a Minnesota comeback.

Minnesota put together another inconsistent effort in this game.  Despite playing three quarters of good defense, Minnesota's early lapses put the Gophers in too deep of a hole.  

Jerry Kill's team now gets one more shot at win No. 3 against a team that might be more shell-shocked than any other in the Big Ten—Illinois.  If Minnesota can end the season with one more win, it will be another positive step forward in rebuilding this once-solid program.

Next Week: vs Illinois

10. Illinois (6-5, 2-5) (10)

Last Week: Lost to Wisconsin 28-17

Illinois was halfway to an upset that could have put to rest a great deal of disappointment.  That was as close as Zook's team would get.

The Illini looked great early in the game, scoring on three of the teams five first-half possessions and taking advantage of a number of short fields in the process. Illinois used an effective run game to move the ball and score in the first half and ended the day with 150 yards rushing on 4.4 yards per carry.  Had it not been for a botched punt, Illinois would have led 17-0 going into the break.

Wisconsin, however, was not out of it because of the failure of the Illinois passing game.  Nathan Scheelhaase completed 17 of his 21 passes for 110 yards, and Reilly O'Toole added another 42 yards passing, but the two combined for three crucial interceptions that would eventually kill any chance for an Illinois comeback.  The way Illinois second-half drives ended: fumble, interception, punt, interception, interception.

Illinois defense, which had held up so well in the first half, forcing three punts and a fumble, couldn't deal with Wisconsin's offense in short-field situations (all three Wisconsin touchdown drives in the second half were under 45 yards) on little rest (Illinois first four offensive possessions of the second half ended in three plays).

More than any other game this season, this one contest encapsulates the Illinois collapse of 2011.  The first half was a wild success marked by a couple ominous signs (crippling special teams mistake, short fields for offensive scores), followed by a complete second-half meltdown where the offense shut down almost completely and left its good defense in a series of very bad situations that were too much to overcome.

It is hard to say definitively that this game has effectively sealed Zook's fate.  The sum total of the last five losses after such a hot start is a more powerful indictment of the man's ability to watch his team splinter into a million pieces right in front of his eyes.  All Zook can hope for on his way out is a bit of dignity that comes with avoiding a loss to Minnesota.  That might be too much to ask.  

Next Week: at Minnesota

9. Purdue (5-6, 3-4) (7)

Last Week: Lost to Iowa 31-21

Purdue has been the most inconsistent team in the Big Ten this year, and continued that trend with a mistake-filled game against Iowa after a stunning upset of Ohio State.

The Boilermakers were thoroughly out-gained in the game, 408 yards to just 280, but despite this Purdue kept the game relatively close only to crumble under the weight of turnovers.  

The quarterback duo of Caleb TerBush and Robert Marve combined to complete just half of their 34 pass attempts for 181 yards and two interceptions.  On the ground, Purdue was held to less than 100 yards and only 2.8 yards per carry on 36 carries.  When Purdue wasn't failing to gain yards, it was usually coughing the ball up.  Purdue gave the ball away four times, including a fumble out of the end zone that was ruled a touchback for Iowa.

Defensively, Iowa's big three were too much for Purdue.  Marcus Coker rushed for 140 yards and a touchdown, James Vandenberg threw for 273 yards and three touchdowns, and Marvin McNutt caught nine passes for 151 yards and two touchdowns.  Iowa had three scoring drives go for over 70 yards and two more go for over 50.

Purdue now faces down a final game with Indiana that will decide whether the Boilermakers have enough wins for bowl eligibility.  In Purdue can get to six wins and a bowl game, it could finally be the bit of good news that Danny Hope has been waiting on for a couple years.  If Purdue can't get the win, it is hard to imagine the heat not turning up on Hope this offseason.

Next Week: at Indiana

8. Northwestern (6-5, 3-4) (9)

Last Week: Beat Minnesota 28-13

After winning its first two games, Northwestern lost five in a row.  Now, the Wildcats are facing an opportunity to make it five straight wins when Michigan State comes to town next week.

Dan Persa continues to put together ridiculously accurate games at quarterback.  The once-hobbled signal caller threw 31 times for 22 completions, 216 yards and two touchdowns.  On the ground, it was a team effort as five players had more than six carries and three tallied more than 20 yards.  Northwestern finished the game with 152 yards on 3.2 yards per carry.

On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats made the plays when needed to keep Minnesota out of the end zone.  The Gophers gained almost 400 yards and gained over 250 of those on the ground at 5.3 yards per carry. However, Northwestern continually came up with turnovers and big third-down stops in its own territory to hold Minnesota to just 13 points for the game.

Now Northwestern, once all but left for dead when it came to bowl odds, has gotten its crucial sixth win necessary to qualify for the postseason.  A win against Michigan State would guarantee Northwestern a bowl spot (as it is, the Big Ten could qualify ten teams with only eight bowl tie-ins, creating an awkward situation where one Big Ten team gets six wins but no bowl invite).  

Not only that, but a five-game win streak that includes victories over two of the Legends Division's top teams to finish the season helps overcome some of the disappointment of the five-game losing streak earlier this year.

Next Week: vs. Michigan State

7. Ohio State (6-5, 3-4) (6)

Last Week: Lost to Penn State 20-14

The Buckeyes have been officially eliminated from Big Ten championship contention for the first time in a long time.  Now, the focus in Columbus turns to finishing with a record that is better than .500.

This loss falls on the shoulders of the Ohio State offense.  The Buckeyes only gained 289 yards for the game, lost two fumbles, and only put together one drive of longer than 45 yards in the first three quarters. Dan Herron finished a second straight game under the century mark, with 76 yards on 18 carries, and backup running backs Jordan Hall and Carlos Hyde each fumbled once.

Defensively, Ohio State was beaten up on the ground.  Three Penn State running backs tallied over 50 yards each on the ground: Stephfon Green ran 16 times for 93 yards and two touchdowns while Silas Redd had 63 yards and Curtis Drake had 50.  For the game, Penn State gained 6.1 yards per carry, taking the pressure off Matt McGloin.

The one bright spot for Ohio State was the play of Braxton Miller.  The freshman quarterback threw for 83 yards and a touchdown while leading the team in rushing with 105 yards and a touchdown.  Miller routinely made big plays to keep drives alive and has shown a great deal of improvement over his early season struggles.  Miller is the best offensive building block on the team and looks like he will develop into a very good quarterback soon.

Now, Ohio State has the only game that matters.  Despite winning only six games to this point, a win next week against Michigan would stop the Wolverines from getting to 10 regular season wins, extend Ohio State's win streak in the series, and provide a jumping-off point for the team that will almost certainly be coached by someone else next year (cough, Urban Meyer, cough).  This is Ohio State's Super Bowl.

Next Week: at Michigan

6. Iowa (7-4, 4-3) (8)

Last Week: Beat Purdue 31-21

Iowa leaned on its three best offensive players and got a little help in the turnover department to move to seven wins on the season.

James Vandenberg was very good, passing 32 times for 22 completions on his way to 273 yards and three touchdowns.  Marvin McNutt did most of the work catching Vandenberg's passes—nine to be exact—on his way to 151 yards and two touchdowns.  Finally, Marcus Coker carried the ball 30 times for 140 yards and a touchdown.  This trio of offensive players was primarily responsible for three long drives (two of 80 yards and one of 70) that ended in touchdowns.

Defensively, the Hawkeyes did enough to take advantage of Purdue mistakes (four turnovers) while clogging up running lanes.  Iowa intercepted two passes and held Purdue to a combined 2.8 yards per carry.

It wasn't always a pretty game. Iowa had two fumbles of its own, but the Hawkeyes put together enough strong drives to capture a lead that it wouldn't relinquish.

Iowa is now left with a Friday showdown against Nebraska.  With both teams having lost to Michigan State, the game doesn't carry any conference championship weight like it was expected to before the season, but for Iowa, eight wins would be the kind of positive momentum this team needs after a 7-5 finish a year ago.

Next Week: at Nebraska

5. Nebraska (8-3, 4-3) (2)

Last Week: Lost to Michigan 45-17

Despite Michigan and Nebraska being strikingly similar going into this weekends game at the Big House, there was one area where the Huskers had a definite advantage: Nebraska was much better in special teams.

Ironically, there wasn't one area of the game where Nebraska would be prove to play worse.

Michigan blew open a close game after halftime by forcing a fumble on the opening kickoff, leading to a score, and faking a field goal on the next drive.  Michigan never looked back.

Nebraska had its worst outing since playing Wisconsin in Madison.  Outside of a broken coverage by Michigan and a big interception (on a screen pass) that set up a field goal, Nebraska hardly looked good in the first half, and things only got worse as the special teams mistakes mounted in the second half.  

Taylor Martinez completed under 40% of his passes for 122 yards and a touchdown, and team-high 51 yards on the ground were not enough to sustain any offensive production.  Rex Burkhead was all but silent with just 3.6 yards per carry on 10 carries.

The real story of the game, however, was the way the Michigan defense shut down Nebraska on third down. The Cornhuskers didn't convert on third down until the second half and finished the game just 3 for 13. Because of turnovers, special teams mistakes and Michigan's defense, Nebraska would finish the game with just 53 offensive plays to Michigan's 80.

Now, Nebraska's last sliver of hope for a Big Ten championship is gone, and the Huskers are staring down a game with Iowa that could make or break the season's progress.  A loss would put Nebraska at 1-3 in November.  Not a good way to finish season number one in the Big Ten.

Next Week: vs. Iowa

4. Penn State (9-2, 6-1) (4)

Last Week: Beat Ohio State 20-14

There isn't much positive press in Happy Valley lately, so you can imagine a win against Ohio State is a welcome break in the news cycle.

Like it has done all season, Penn State won this one with stout defense and a brutally effective run game. Penn State held Ohio State to just 289 total yards and forced two turnovers in the second half—all that was necessary to hold Ohio State out of the end zone for three of four quarters (both Buckeye touchdowns came in the second quarter).

Of course, Penn State was also held scoreless in the second half, but with the powerful running of a trio of running backs (Stephfon Green, Silas Redd, and Curtis Drake), Penn State ran for 239 yards at over six yards per carry.  This was good enough to get Penn State scores on four of its first five possessions.

Now it is time for the Nittany Lions to travel to Wisconsin for the toughest Big Ten test of the year.  The Badgers have the conference's best offense and an opportunistic defense and special teams.  Penn State can certainly win the game, but it will take the kind of complete offensive effort that the Nittany Lions have yet to put up this year.  

If Penn State's defense can't hold Wisconsin to under 20 points—possible, but not likely—the Nittany Lion offense is going to have to find a way to move the ball consistently for four quarters.

Next Week: at Wisconsin

3. Wisconsin (9-2, 5-2) (3)

Last Week: Beat Illinois 28-17

It wasn't pretty, but Wisconsin clawed its way back from a two-score deficit to stay in the Big Ten Leaders Division hunt.

At first it looked like Wisconsin's game against Illinois was going to go like almost every Big Ten game with conference title ramifications has gone, but Wisconsin's defense stepped up and forced Illinois into a number of turnovers that set the Badgers up to get just enough offense to win.

As it stood, this was about the ugliest offensive game Wisconsin has played this year.  The Badgers gained just 284 yards at just five yards per play.  Russell Wilson wasn't called on much—just 13 attempts, of which he completed 10 for 90 yards and a touchdown.  

There is little reason to go to the air with a workhorse like Montee Ball in the backfield.  Ball rushed 37 times for 221 yards and two touchdowns and caught a five-yard touchdown pass for good measure.

Wisconsin's defense didn't play as badly as the score made it seem early on.  Both Illinois first half touchdowns came on shorter drives (36 and 51 yards).  However, once the second half started, Wisconsin played lights out.  Illinois had five drives in the second half.  The first four each ended in three plays, and four of the five ended in a turnover.

Wisconsin now gets to focus on getting a rematch with Michigan State.  The Spartans clinched one spot in the Big Ten title game this weekend, and now Penn State visits Madison with the Big Ten title on the line.  If Wisconsin can win the game, its chance at a second straight Rose Bowl is still alive.  If Wisconsin loses, the best-case scenario is most likely the Capital One Bowl.

Next Week: vs. Penn State

2. Michigan (9-2, 5-2) (5)

Last Week: Beat Nebraska 45-17

This game was more than just a win for Brady Hoke's crew.  It was an announcement.

After four years of struggles, Michigan put together its most dominant effort against a ranked opponent since the 2006 season while erasing any chance that this season ends in the same sort of nervous limbo that the past two have.

Michigan won the game decisively in every area.  The Wolverines controlled the ball for two thirds of the game and kept Nebraska's offense off the field with turnovers and third-down stops, while putting up 400 yards of offense and six touchdowns.

Denard Robinson had his best game of the year, completing 11 of 18 passes for 179 yards and two touchdowns and rushing for 83 more yards and two touchdowns.  After throwing an interception on a screen pass to set up Nebraska's second-quarter field goal, Robinson led five touchdown drives and scored three of those touchdowns himself.

Fitzgerald Toussaint surpassed 100 yards for the third time in four games and has further tightened his grip on the No. 1 running back job.  Toussaint had 134 yards on 29 carries and added two touchdowns.

Defensively, the Wolverines held eight Nebraska drives to fewer than five plays (not including two scoring drives), and did so by only allowing three conversions on third down.  Meanwhile, Michigan special teams forced two fumbles on kick returns, blocked a punt and faked a field goal deep in Nebraska territory.

With this win, Brady Hoke has done two things that Rich Rodriguez never did: 1) win against a ranked conference opponent in November, and 2) finish over .500 in the Big Ten.  If Michigan can keep its momentum going for one more week, Hoke could do something no Michigan coach has done since 2003. 

Next Week: vs. Ohio State

1. Michigan State (9-2, 6-1) (1)

Last Week: Beat Indiana 55-3

Nobody had a better Saturday in the Big Ten than Michigan State.

The Spartans won in lopsided fashion on Senior Day while watching the only other challenger for the Legends Division title get knocked off, clinching a spot in the Big Ten title game for Michigan State.

First and foremost, the Spartans took care of business on their end.  Michigan State scored on six of its seven first-half possessions and gained 469 total yards on 7.2 yards per play.  Kirk Cousins only threw seven incomplete passes on the day and completed the rest of his 23 attempts for 273 yards and three touchdowns.  Edwin Baker only rushed for 33 yards but added two touchdowns on the ground.

Defensively, Michigan State was once again the dominant unit that was present in the beginning of the year. Michigan State only allowed Indiana to convert three of its 15 third downs, and the Spartans forced three turnovers.

This win puts the cap on another successful Big Ten season for Michigan State.  A year after the Spartans won a share of the conference title, Michigan State was able to be the first team to clinch a spot in the Big Ten championship game.  

Despite playing a harder schedule this year Michigan State is well on its way to double-digit wins for the second straight year, while being one championship game win away from a Rose Bowl birth.  Next week's game against Northwestern only matters for Michigan State's pride.  A loss still puts MSU in the Big Ten title game.  Not a bad place to sit if you are Mark Dantonio.

Next Week: at Northwestern