Arkansas vs. LSU: Breaking Down What Could Be the Game of the Year

All the hell that broke loose in Week 12 of the 2011 college football season literally oozes with implications from a national, conference and divisional standpoint.

Contests that once were circled in red as absolutely critical have been downgraded to minimally important, while other games that at one time seemed possibly intriguing are now the matchups that will be deciding factors in the race to grasp a steaming hunk of championship hardware.

The 2011 regular season finale pitting LSU vs. Arkansas always had the potential to be fraught with meaning, but after the monumental post-Week 12 reshuffle, suddenly, it is the hinge on which the SEC West door swings.

The scenario is complicated (and includes the need for Auburn to knock off Alabama), but simply put, if the Hogs triumph in Baton Rouge this coming Friday, then we’ve got a real mess on our hands.

Suddenly, LSU goes from having punched their ticket to the SEC title game and the BCS national crystal pigskin festivities to finding a back door into the dance, and then what about Arkansas, Alabama, Stanford, Virginia Tech and other potential one-loss winners with their eye on the big prize?

Sweet molasses! This is getting good.

The following slideshow offers up a generous helping of 15 key statistical areas that may give us a clue of who has the advantage in the 2012 edition of LSU vs. Alabama and then wraps up with a numeric driven prediction in the final stanza.

Both Score a High Number of Points, but by Different Means

LSU averages 37.9 points per game while Arkansas averages 39.3, but that is where the offensive similarities end between the two.

LSU is primarily a running team (No. 21 nationally in rushing yards and No. 103 in passing yards), while Arkansas gets it done through the air (No. 10 in passing yards and No. 72 in rushing yards).

Overall, LSU is the more balanced team from a yardage standpoint. Arkansas averages almost 100 yards more per game, but produces only 1.4 more points per game in scoring.

LSU Clearly Has the Better Defense

The Tigers have an advantage defensively over the Hogs in virtually every statistical category.

LSU is ranked in the top five nationally in points allowed, rushing defense, total defense and, perhaps most importantly in this matchup, in passing defense.

Yes, with Arkansas’ prolific passing attack (No. 10 nationally, 316.9 yards per game), LSU’s No. 5 ranked pass defense (158.3 yards per game) will come in handy.

The Razorbacks must find away to exploit LSU’s stingy defense to stay in the game.

Arkansas Must Stop LSU’s Running Attack

One of the more notable differences discovered when breaking down LSU and Arkansas involves the Tigers ground game clashing with the Hogs rushing defense.

Arkansas' biggest defensive statistical weakness is its running defense, which is ranked No. 70 nationally and has allowed 164.2 yards per game thus far in 2011.

On the other side of the ball will be LSU’s No. 21 ranked rushing offense that has reeled off 209.5 yards per game on the ground, setting up what could be the mismatch that contributes to the scales tipping in the Tigers favor.

Arkansas must stop LSU on the ground and force them to pass the ball, where the Tigers No. 103 passing game will square off with the Razorbacks No. 28 ranked passing D.

LSU Has a Big Advantage in Turnover Margin

It’s difficult to comprehend how careful LSU has been with the ball in 2011. Thus far, the Tigers have coughed up the ball only six total times (three interceptions and three fumbles, which is No. 1 nationally), and this vigilance, combined with their 24 takeaways, earns LSU a plus-18 margin in turnovers.

Arkansas, on the other hand, has suffered 16 turnovers (10 picks and six drops), while taking away 17 balls (10 picks and seven fumble recoveries), netting the Hogs a plus-one turnover margin.

If turnovers are going to be the deciding factor in this game, it’s hard to bet against a very careful yet opportunistic LSU squad.

LSU Is Better at Converting Third and Fourth Downs

Though on paper Arkansas’ offense has an overall advantage, LSU is slightly better at converting on third and fourth down scenarios.

The Tigers are 47.4 percent on third down, while the Razorbacks are 41.6 percent in the same category.

LSU also has the edge from a fourth down standpoint (80 percent vs. 73.3 percent), but this should be quantified by mentioning that the Tigers have only gone for it on fourth down five times this season, while Arkansas has made 15 attempts.

The Offenses Split the Red Zone Advantage

Even though LSU has a blazing edge in terms of red zone scoring percentage (96.1 vs. Arkansas’s 86.5 percent), Arkansas has the advantage in TDs scored from inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.

Yes, the Razorbacks rank No. 7 in the country in red zone TD percentage (74.5), while LSU lags behind at No. 46 with 63.5 percent.

LSU Has More Success Kicking Field Goals

This is a category in which LSU had a pregame statistical advantage over Alabama, which proved to, in hindsight, be nothing short of prophetic.

Yes, the kicking game is not important until…well…it is.

LSU is 87.5 percent in field goal kicking, while Arkansas is 73.9 percent.

Arkansas Will Not Win the Game on a Punt Return

In another statistical category that defies logic (and includes the number six), LSU has allowed only six total yards in punt returns this season.

Yes, the Tigers have allowed an average that comes out to less than 0.5 yards per return.

Wow.

On the other hand, Arkansas has allowed an average of 11 yards per return and 230 yards total, which earns them the No. 105 ranking nationally.

Arkansas Allows More Sacks and Tackles for Losses

In a scary scenario, when facing the No. 2 ranked defense in the land, Arkansas has allowed 20 sacks for 128 lost yards (No. 58 and No. 55, respectively, nationally), while LSU has only allowed 10 sacks for 55 yards (No. 14 and No. 9, respectively).

Furthermore, the Hogs have allowed 65 tackles for 254 total lost yards (No. 71 and No. 72 respectively), while the Tigers have allowed only 47 TFLs for 122 yards (No. 12 and No. 3 respectively).

These numbers mean Arkansas will have to shore up their offensive line in order to get anything going in terms of point scoring and that they may experience great difficulty in getting around a beastly LSU D-line.

The Defenses also Split the Red Zone Advantage

In the biggest statistical deficiency in our presentation, LSU ranks a dismal No. 109 nationally in opponents' red zone scoring.

Yes, the Tigers have allowed foes to score inside their 20-yard line 89.5 percent of the time, which sounds almost ridiculous until you save face by mentioning that only 52.6 percent of these scores were touchdowns (garnering LSU a No. 2 ranking in that category).

Arkansas has the overall opponent’s red zone scoring edge with a 73.1 percentage mark (No. 14 in the country), but 61.5 percent of these have been TDs (No. 19 in the country).

Despite LSUs defensive prowess and the fact that their red zone TD rate is stellar, this could definitely be classified as an advantage for the Razorbacks.

Arkansas Scores More Big Plays and Allows More Big Plays

In terms of big plays, the Razorbacks have enjoyed more 10-plus yard gains than LSU, but they’ve also allowed more huge gainers than the Tigers.

Arkansas is No. 8 nationally in 10-plus yard offensive plays, while LSU is No. 80. From a defensive standpoint, the Razorbacks are No. 34 in 10-plus yard plays allowed, while the Tigers are a lofty No. 8.

You have to give the edge to LSU in this category because of their top ranked defense, which should be able to thwart potential huge plays from Arkansas’ relatively marginally ranked offensive unit.

LSU has Played Better Opponents

There is a bunch of different ways to back up the claim that LSU has played a more difficult 2011 schedule than Arkansas, but we’ll try to stick to only a few of the most blaring.

First, ranked teams: LSU has played six vs. Arkansas four.

Secondly, opponents' winning percentages…the Tigers have played teams that have a 56 percent winning ratio, while the Hogs have played teams that have won 49 percent of their games.

Third, number of teams faced who have a winning record: LSU six, Arkansas four.

What’s really interesting is to throw out the two teams' common opponents and compare who’s left.

LSU has played Oregon from the Pac-12, an FCS team, West Virginia from the Big East, Kentucky and Florida from the SEC East and Western Kentucky from the Sun Belt.

Arkansas has played New Mexico from the Mountain West, an FCS team, Troy from the Sun Belt, Texas A&M from the Big 12 and then Vanderbilt and South Carolina from the SEC East.

The only edge for Arkansas at all in this comparison is the fact that they faced South Carolina, which is clearly the best team either squad faced from the East; otherwise, it’s all LSU.

The strength of opponents played is crucial to any discussion of comparative statistics because who you put the numbers up against is almost as important as the numbers themselves.

To illustrate, if you are the No. 1 ranked team in passing yards and you’ve played Middle Tennessee, North Texas and New Mexico State, then you may want to reconsider talking smack to the No. 17 ranked passing team who has earned their ranking against Alabama, Virginia Tech and Michigan State.

LSU has a clear advantage in terms of strength of schedule a fact, which makes its overall statistical resume shine even brighter.

LSU Wins the Margin of Victory Battle

Taking the strength of opponents played discussion a step further, LSU scores yet another blow to Arkansas in terms of margin of victory.

Overall, the Tigers have beaten foes by an average of 24 points, which is marginally better than the Razorbacks 22.5 points, but after that, level LSU begins to run away with it.

LSU has enjoyed a 25.2-point margin of victory over BCS teams vs. Arkansas’ 14.4 points, and in terms of ranked foes, LSU holds a 20-point average advantage, while the Razorbacks have earned a 17-point mark.

This is yet another indication that LSU has enjoyed higher level success against better teams.

LSU has a Clear Advantage over Arkansas in Baton Rouge

LSU and Arkansas have met 19 times since 1992 (before that their last meeting was in 1966), and on nine of these occasions, they’ve squared off in Baton Rouge.

The Razorbacks have bested the Tigers on their home field once twice in this time period (2007 and 1993), with the other seven going LSU’s way.

Les Miles Trumps Bobby Petrino Against Top 10 Opponents

Bobby Petrino is 2-8 against Top 10 teams during his four seasons at Arkansas and 4-9 overall, while Les Miles is 11-8 against Top 10 foes in seven years at LSU and then 13-12 all-time.

The Bottom Line

Well, once you put the Tigers and Hogs on paper, it would be difficult to not give a clear edge in this game to LSU.

LSU is much better defensively, and if they can successfully run the ball on Arkansas and continue to avoid mistakes, they should win this game easily and advance blameless to the SEC championship game against Georgia.

My pick?

LSU by 14.

But (and excuse me for having a big but), if it were as easy as lining two teams up on paper and deciding a winner, then we could just let the BCS computer decide every game to be played in a season and call it a day.

Yes, if it were as simple as running a statistical analysis, then Iowa State would have gotten killed by Oklahoma State last Friday night, and Oklahoma would have left Waco with only one loss.

Oregon would have thumped USC, Clemson would have beaten NC State handily and Nebraska would have imposed their will on Michigan.

Yes, that’s the beautiful, tasty and alluring thing about college football…on any given day, any team can beat another team, regardless of who is supposed to be better.

And, in the case of LSU vs. Arkansas, these are two very good football teams with a lot to win and perhaps even more to lose.

Will LSU win?

More than likely, yes they will.

Can Arkansas triumph in Baton Rouge?

Definitely.

And that’s why we’ll all be watching!