2012 NFL Mock Draft: Complete 1st Round Predictions
While we're only in Week 11 of the 2011 NFL season, some fans are already looking ahead to April when the 2012 NFL draft will kickoff.
I figured it would be best to give something to those fans unlucky enough to be thinking of such things at this point in the season.
College football is brimming with talent right now and a lot of those players will be making an impact on Sundays in 2012. Several of the draft-eligible prospects that will be available could be instant-impact guys, meaning they could turn around the fortunes of the franchises who select them.
I will be using this handy projection to determine the order for my projections for the 2012 NFL draft. Feel free to comment with your own take on the draft, and with where you think I got it wrong or right.
1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
1 of 32You can debate whether or not the Colts will actually select him all day long, but here is what I know for certain: Andrew Luck will be the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NFL draft. This might come down to who offers Indianapolis the most in exchange for the top selection, but still he goes with the top pick and the Colts have that in this projection.
I personally think the Colts should basically hold this selection for ransom and send it to the highest bidder, even if that means actually selecting Luck with the top pick then trading him later in the day. Indianapolis has so many holes to fill that taking the Stanford signal-caller won't possibly fix them. In fact, it may just make things worse since the team will be a year older with the same holes next season.
Luck is a redshirt junior and he would have been the top overall selection in the 2011 draft. This season he has done nothing to change his status as the top player in the land. He has every tool you'd want from a franchise quarterback and will be ready to start from his first day in the league.
Luck will be the top pick in April, it is up to the Colts to figure out what to do with him.
2. Miami Dolphins: Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma
2 of 32The Miami Dolphins have shown life over the past few weeks but it is almost certain they will end up near the top of the 2012 draft. Clearly the team's biggest weakness is at the quarterback position and the Dolphins will need to take someone who can step in and provide a long-term boost to the position.
While Jones has certainly seen his stock fall over the past few weeks thanks to his inconsistency, he still is a big, toolsy quarterback who is sure to grade out as a top-seven player in this class.
Jones checks in at 6'4" and 229 pounds and is behind only Luck as the most prototypical passer in this class. He has been a starter for three years (thanks to Sam Bradford's shoulder injury in 2009) and has put up huge numbers.
The bottom line is that the Dolphins are in desperate need of help at the quarterback position and Jones is the pick that makes the most sense for long-term stability at the position.
While he's not the second-best player in the draft he's likely to be the second pick in this scenario.
3. Cleveland Browns: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
3 of 32While most expect the Browns to focus on improving their defense, I think they need an elite play-maker. If the franchise truly believes in Colt McCoy as its future at the quarterback position, then it needs to get that kid some help.
Running backs Montario Hardesty and Peyton Hillis have been injured all season, and while Greg Little and Josh Cribbs are nice, Blackmon is an absolute stud.
The Oklahoma State wideout plays much bigger than his 6'1" 211-pound frame would suggest and his ability to separate and then go up and get balls in coverage and traffic is unparalleled in college football.
While his measureables may not be exactly what NFL scouts are looking for, Blackmon is a flat-out stud who has earned every bit of this No. 3 pick.
With two first round picks (thanks to Atlanta's trade up for Julio Jones last year) the Browns can afford to add a luxury this high. A guy like Blackmon doesn't come around that often.
4. Washington Redskins: Matt Barkley, QB, USC
4 of 32Matt Barkley has elevated himself to a ridiculous degree over the past few weeks with some truly outstanding performances. While there have been lots of whispers that the true junior would return for his senior year and a chance to chase both a BCS championship and a Heisman Trophy, for this I'm going to go ahead and assume he comes out.
To say this draft is quarterback-heavy would be an understatement, and though Barkley isn't among the top 10 players eligible, if the Redskins stay in this spot and don't trade out, they simply can't afford to miss an opportunity to upgrade the quarterback position.
The combination of John Beck and Rex Grossman just isn't getting it done and with no really good options ready to be available through free agency, head coach Mike Shanahan has to pick a quarterback he can groom.
Barkley may be the most mentally ready of all the quarterback available in this class. He has been a three-year starter and almost seems to relish the spotlight and playing in hostile environments. Heck, in his second college game he led USC on a remarkable late fourth-quarter drive against Ohio State at the Horseshoe, and Saturday night he led the Trojans past a top-five Oregon team that had won 21 straight home games.
Barkley is a great kid who will excel during the interview process. He can make all the throws, is incredibly accurate and can throw on the run. The only area that needs improvement is his placement of deep balls, but that is something that can be worked on.
In this spot, looking at the board, the Redskins can't afford to miss out on what Barkley brings to the table.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
5 of 32Yes, I know I have gone all offense so far in this thing and the picks have all been from the skill positions, but if you look at the board and the teams drafting it makes complete sense.
The Jaguars rank dead-last in passing yardage in the NFL this season averaging an atrocious 122.1 yards per game. With a rookie quarterback in Blaine Gabbert struggling with his accuracy, he needs a guy who can just flat-out go up and get the football even when it isn't thrown perfectly.
Enter Alshon Jeffery, who might be the best at doing that we've seen in college football in years. While he may not blow people away with his speed, Jeffery simply knows how to get to the football.
His ability to go up and get the ball in traffic, and make spectacular catches is unmatched in college football.
He doesn't have the speed or separation ability of a guy like Calvin Johnson, but he has the same type of play-making skill. That kind of thing can't be taught.
Jeffery is 6'4" and 232 pounds, has incredible hands and does possess good short-area burst to get off the and get open initially. He also plays a premium position in an area of need for the Jaguars.
Jacksonville just can't pass up the chance to get Gabbert a reliable play-maker to pair with a solid prospect like Mike Thomas at receiver.
6. Denver Broncos: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
6 of 32The Denver Broncos are a team without a real identity right now. Are they going to stick with this all-run attack centered on Tim Tebow or will they look to change things dramatically in their first full offseason with John Fox as the head coach?
We really don't know. What I do know is that you can never have enough good cornerbacks and LSU's Morris Claiborne is arguably the best defensive player in this draft. With an aging Champ Bailey on the outside, the Broncos would love to grab a young shutdown corner for him to groom as his long-term replacement.
Claiborne checks in at 6' and 173 pounds, and has the size, speed, fluidity and ball skills to be a Pro Bowl cornerback for a long time at the next level. While he gets overshadowed a bit by his play-making teammate Tyrann Mathieu, Claiborne may actually be the better long-term prospect.
The Broncos would love to snatch him up at No. 6.
7. Kansas City Chiefs: Matt Kalil, OT, USC
7 of 32Finally the second-best player int he class comes off the board. I have a hard time believing a team won't trade up to snag Kalil, who might be the best offensive tackle prospect to enter the draft since Jake Long was taken with the top pick back in 2008.
Kalil is 6'7" and 295 pounds with plenty of room to add additional bulk. For a guy his size he has incredible quickness and great feet. He excels in pass protection and mauls opponents on the run. His brother Ryan is a Pro Bowl center for the Carolina Panthers, so he also has great bloodlines. By midseason Kalil had established himself as clearly the second-best player in this class.
The Chiefs have Braden Albert starting on the left side, but he isn't elite. Sliding him over to right tackle and putting Kalil in his place on the left side would give Kansas City one of the best tackle tandems in the NFL.
If Kalil lasts this long the Chiefs will be deliriously happy. He's a great kid, a leader along the offensive line and should be a franchise cornerstone for a decade.
8. Arizona Cardinals: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
8 of 32And here comes the run on offensive tackles. Obviously Martin gets overshadowed by his quarterback but he is destined to be a top 10 pick this April.
While Kevin Kolb hasn't lived up to the enormous contract he signed when Arizona traded for him, the Cardinals still need to protect that investment.
Martin has prototypical size and athleticism and should be a stout left tackle for a long time in the NFL. At 6'6" and 304 pounds he has been excellent as the blindside protector for Andrew Luck, and he also does a great job clearing paths in the running game.
While he isn't as elite as Kalil, Martin is the kind of tackle you can rely on and not have to worry about. At worst he'll be a solid starter, at best a perennial Pro Bowler.
9. Seattle Seahawks: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
9 of 32While Pete Carroll and company would love to land one of the top three quarterbacks, they are off the board here. Instead, he'll take this opportunity to upgrade the team's running game that ranks 28th in the NFL (91.7 yards per game).
Richardson has an elite combination of speed, size and power, while possessing excellent balance and vision. He's easily the top back in this class and should be a solid back at the next level for years.
10. Minnesota Vikings: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
10 of 32The Vikings lost long-time left tackle Bryant McKinnie this offseason, jettisoning him after he battled serious weight and off-field issues.
They have yet to replace him and while Reiff is the third-best tackle in this draft, he's as dependable and consistent as they come. At 6'6" and 300 pounds he has good size and is as technically sound as any offensive lineman in this class.
11. St. Louis Rams: Vontaze Burfict, ILB, Arizona State
11 of 32While James Laurinaitis has the middle linebacker spot covered for the Rams, Burfict has lined up outside a lot for Arizona State this season and St. Louis simply can't pass up the opportunity to grab a guy who is a difference-maker on the defensive end.
Burfict plays sideline-to-sideline and might even push Laurinaitis to the outside because of how much ground he can cover. The ASU prospect is a physical freak at 6'3" and 252 pounds and if he can answer questions about his maturity and mental makeup he should be a stud in the NFL for a long time.
12. Carolina Panthers: Manti Te'o, LB, Notre Dame
12 of 32The Panthers lost both Thomas Davis and Jon Beason to season-ending injuries which depleted their linebacking corps considerably this year. As a result their rushing defense has suffered, ranking 28th in the league (allowing 137.6 yards per game).
Te'o has experience playing all over the field and could step in and be a huge boost to the team's run defense. He has great instincts and toughness and at 6'2 and 255 pounds he is physically ready for the NFL.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
13 of 32Ronde Barber is 36 years old and will be retiring sometime soon so it is time for the Buccaneers to start looking for his replacement.
Kirkpatrick has elite size at 6'2" and 190 pounds, and while he isn't phenomenal in man coverage, he has the frame to be excellent in run support, possesses excellent speed and has great instincts when running zone schemes. Luckily, the Bucs play a ton of zone coverage, so Kirkpatrick should be an excellent fit.
14. Cincinnati Bengals (From Oakland Raiders): Lamar Miller, RB, Miami
14 of 32The Bengals could either continue to rely on Cedric Benson and hope that he stays out of trouble, or they could go for a younger back with considerable upside. What do you think they will choose?
Miller has good size at 5'11" and 214 pounds, and is really fast. His exceptional speed helps when you factor in his hard running style and how explosive he is out of his cuts. With Andy Dalton and A.J. Green in place at quarterback and receiver adding Miller should take the Bengals' offense to the next level.
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College
15 of 32If there is a hole in Philadelphia's defense it is clearly the linebacking corps. Kuechly might have the best instincts of any defensive player in this class. While he has played on the inside for Boston College, he could probably play any linebacking spot in the NFL.
No matter where the Eagles stick him he will be successful. At 6'2" and 235 pounds he isn't as big as some other guys in the class, his knowledge and ability to diagnose plays will make up for any lack of elite athleticism.
16. Tennessee Titans: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
16 of 32While the Tennessee Titans have not been great offensively this season, they won't pass up an opportunity to take up an elite defensive end like Quinton Coples.
The only reason Coples slips this far is because of the needs of the teams ahead of him. At 6'6" and 285 pounds the North Carolina prospect has the size, speed and talent to be an elite 4-3 defensive end. While Jason Jones and Derrick Morgan not exactly lighting the world on fire from the outside, Coples could step in and start right away for the Titans.
17. Cincinnati Bengals: Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
17 of 32Alright so maybe I'm just making this fit a little too well. Jenkins is a problem child who was booted off the team at Florida because of off-field issues. Still he's a phenomenally talented cornerback who can really do it all.
While he checks in at just under 5'10" and weights 177 pounds, Jenkins has incredible top-end speed and is also a dynamic punt returner. While he's stuck at the Division II level this year, the Bengals will give him the benefit of the doubt because of his exceptional physical gifts and very good instincts.
18. Buffalo Bills: Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina
18 of 32The Buffalo Bills missed with Aaron Maybin, and had to cut the former first-rounder loose before the 2011 season. The Bills are still in need of a pass rushing outside linebacker for their 3-4 system, and South Carolina's Melvin Ingram could be that guy.
Ingram plays defensive end for the Gamecocks right now, but he is a play-maker with incredible athleticism who should be able to make the transition to OLB at the next level.
19. Dallas Cowboys: Courtney Upshaw, LB, Alabama
19 of 32Another Alabama guy comes off the board here as the Cowboys could really use some more toughness in their linebacking corps.
Courtney Upshaw is a 6'2" 265-pound linebacker who has played all over Alabama's defense. He's likely headed for outside linebacker in a 3-4 set, which would make him perfect for the Cowboys. He compares favorably to Pittsburgh's LaMarr Woodley and could replace former first-round pick Anthony Spencer who has been a disappointment in Dallas so far.
20. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta Falcons): Mark Barron, S, Alabama
20 of 32The Browns already have cornerbacks Joe Haden and Sheldon Brown in the secondary but could certainly use an upgrade over Usama Young and Mike Adams at safety.
Mark Barron has been rising all year long, and at 6'1" and 223 pounds he provides an imposing presence in the secondary. He is a big hitter, makes plays on the ball and is excellent in run support.
21. San Diego Chargers: Ronnell Lewis, DE/OLB, Oklahoma
21 of 32The San Diego Chargers have failed in their previous attempts to replace Shawne Merriman as Larry English is just one of a host of players who have busted out as the pass rushing linebacker across from Shaun Phillips.
While Oklahoma's Ronnell Lewis would probably be best served by coming back for another year and adding some more good weight, the 6'2" 245-pound defensive end/outside linebacker has the raw ability to make the jump.
He has outstanding pass rush skills from both sides of the line and the Chargers could really use his athleticism as they try and figure out a way to get to the quarterback.
22. Houston Texans: David DeCastro, G, Stanford
22 of 32The "other guy" from Stanford's first-round trio would be a perfect fit with a Texans team that is starting two average players at guard. Wade Smith and Mike Brisiel are nice, but they don't have the ability that DeCastro does.
DeCastro checks in at 6'4" and 314 pounds and has been the nation's best interior lineman to this point in the season. Don't expect him to last past this pick as teams are increasingly placing much more draft value in interior linemen on both sides of the ball.
23. Detroit Lions: Cordy Glenn, OT/G, Georgia
23 of 32The Lions will look to improve either their secondary or their offensive line with this pick, and with a very experienced lineman like Georgia's Cordy Glenn available it would be far too difficult for them to pass him up.
Glenn is a massive 6'5" and 348 pounds and can play both tackle and guard. While he is a decent tackle, he could be a dominant guard in the NFL. He would automatically upgrade Detroit's pass protection and should be a mauler in the run game.
24. Chicago Bears: Brandon Thompson, DT, Clemson
24 of 32Chicago desperately needs to upgrade its offensive line but at this point there are no guys left worthy of a first-round pick.
Therefore the Bears will look to take the best player available and Clemson's Brandon Thompson is that guy. The 6'2" 310 pound defensive tackle is a disruptive force along the defensive line. He has been outstanding plugging running lanes and penetrating this year and may be one of the nation's most consistent defensive linemen.
Thompson is better than anything the Bears currently have at defensive tackle and could step in and play right away.
25. New York Jets: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
25 of 32I'm not sure this is a good pick by the Jets, but they need more play-makers on offense and Notre Dame receiver Michael Floyd does have a habit of making plays.
Quarterback Mark Sanchez hasn't been great this season, but Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes are both inconsistent and New York's running game has been atrocious. Adding another guy who could help make things happen will take some of the pressure off Sanchez.
Floyd is 6'3" and 224 pounds with great hands and the ability to go up and get the ball. He has been a consistent play-maker during his entire career with the Irish.
26. New York Giants: Zach Brown, LB, North Carolina
26 of 32The Giants are headed for the playoffs and have a solid roster already. In April they will be looking to address a need at outside linebacker.
Brown is a 6'2" 230-pound linebacker who isn't big but can absolutely fly around the field. He is great rushing the quarterback and is also excellent in coverage.
He could work in both 3-4 and 4-3 sets, but would be a perfect fit on the outside for the Giants.
27. Pittsburgh Steelers: Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
27 of 32The Pittsburgh Steelers are somehow treading water this year with only one solid cornerback (Ike Taylor) and they clearly need to add some youth and talent in the secondary this April.
Alfonzo Dennard plays bigger than his 5'10" 205-pound frame, has an incredible vertical leap and has a strong frame.
He does a great job handling bigger receivers, has excellent ball skills and seems to enjoy the challenge of playing against hyped competition. He should step in and start right away for the Steelers.
28. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Toon, WR, Wisconsin
28 of 32The San Francisco 49ers are finally getting some production out of former first-round pick Michael Crabtree and while it would seem a little redundant to take Wisconsin's Nick Toon here, the team needs more help in the passing game.
Toon is a 6'1" 213-pound wideout with NFL bloodlines who could be outstanding as a No. 2 guy. He has size and speed and is an excellent blocker in the run game.
Toon is the exact kind of hard-nosed skill position player 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh loves.
29. Baltimore Ravens: Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson
29 of 32The Baltimore Ravens like tight end Ed Dickson, but he's incredibly limited athletically and doesn't have much of an upside.
Clemson's Dwayne Allen has been a productive pass catcher who is polished and has outstanding hands. At 6'4" and 255 pounds, he is big and makes tough catches in traffic. While his speed and athleticism are not off the charts, he can separate from coverage and is a a good enough route runner to get himself open.
30. New England Patriots (from New Orleans Saints): Jared Crick, DT, Nebraska
30 of 32Bleacher Report's Matt Miller and I both agree on this pick.
Nebraska's Jared Crick would be one of the draft's top players had he not torn a pectoral muscle. He projects as an ideal 3-4 defensive end and given the Patriots' turnover and failed experiments along the defensive line they'd love to have him, assuming he will be fully recovered from his injury.
Expect Crick to fly under the radar approaching the draft but Bill Belichick loves to draft productive college players regardless of their off-field or injury problems. Crick is his kind of player.
31. New England Patriots: Jeff Fuller, WR, Texas A&M
31 of 32Judging by previous drafts the Patriots will probably end up trading one of these two back-to-back picks. But in this scenario they hang on to it and pick up another weapon for quarterback Tom Brady.
Fuller is almost 6'4" and is 217 pounds but could still add some bulk. He has the ability to go up and get balls in traffic, runs good routes and while he doesn't have "elite" top-end speed, he can be a deep threat thanks to a long stride that helps him cover a ton of yards downfield.
He's a tough kid who will give the Patriots a big wideout they don't currently have and should help improve an offense that has stalled at times this year.
32. Green Bay Packers: Devon Still, DT, Penn State
32 of 32The Packers are a fantastic team and while they have one of the best offenses I've ever seen, their defense could use some work. Green Bay needs to add ability at defense end and at the end of the first round they could get a great value by selecting Penn State's Devon Still.
Still is a massive 6'5" and 310 pounds and would be able to play both nose tackle and defensive end in Green Bay's 3-4. While B.J. Raji is excellent at the nose, Still would be able to spell him at times.
Still is an outstanding penetrator who has been very disruptive this season. He has been double-teamed almost all year but continues to dominate the opposition. While he's not a fantastic athlete he's probably the best overall defensive tackle in this class and the Packers would be getting a steal here.
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