9 Doomsday Scenarios for the BCS

Believe it or not, the powers that be at the BCS are apparently discussing altering the format of the “showcase of college football.”

Yes, according to an article posted on USA Today’s website, the BCS is discussing tantalizing revisions, including a pared-down playoff system, plus-one options and even the idea of eliminating the guaranteed “automatic” BCS berth for the elite conferences.

While all this sounds attractive, what would it take for the BCS to meet its ultimate demise and be replaced by another, more sensible solution to determining the best of the best in college football?

Yes, instead of revamping the BCS, what needs to happen for it become just another sordid chapter in the otherwise delightful history of our game?

The following slideshow highlights nine scenarios that could 86 the BCS, and while some of these potential events could be but a cog in the wheel of change, others could completely squash the BCS on their own.

Really, any advancement towards equality and fairness could spell disaster for what is basically an illogical scheme for deciding a football champion.

No Undefeated BCS Teams in 2011

There is no doubt that this season is setting up to be one for the history books on at least a few fronts, one of these being an opportunity to have at least one one-loss team in the championship game for the first time since 2008-09, when Florida bested Oklahoma for the big enchilada.

Yes, if LSU and/or Oklahoma State fail to reach the golden gates of perfection, then all of a sudden a beautiful mess is made of the BCS situation that will no doubt cause an eruption of debate over the fairness and viability of the system itself.

If LSU, Oklahoma State, Alabama, Oregon, Oklahoma, Stanford and then either Clemson or Virginia Tech all finish with one loss, then you’ve got a scenario that means the computer picks who goes to the championship.

Yes, two teams (and fanbases, university administrations and media representatives) will be thrilled while the others will be hostile, and with good reason, too.

Get the wrong folks upset by putting the inequality on display and your days might just be numbered…

LSU, Oregon and Virginia Tech lose their Conference Championship Games

Along the same lines as everybody finishing with one loss would be a setup that involved the regular season finishing as expected (Oklahoma State and LSU win out, other parties stay at one loss) and then all hell breaking loose at the conference championship level.

Yes, what happens if Oklahoma State is undefeated but LSU, Oregon and Virginia Tech (or Clemson) all lose their respective championship games?

Then, suddenly the conferences are championed by teams that in some cases lost straight up (earlier in the season) against the second-place teams, and in other cases you’ve got two-loss teams where there once was one…

Confusing?

Exactly.

A clear No. 2?

No way.

The BCS and ESPN Divorce

It’s hard to deny the suggestion that the BCS and ESPN are frolicking in bed together to some degree.

ESPN has the current TV contract for all the BCS games, which makes them partners in the boardroom. Provocative signs such as the presence of ESPN’s news feed on the BCS website leads one to believe that relationship may have progressed even further.

So, what happens if the “Worldwide Leader in Sports” and the “Showcase of College Football” have a spat that makes them certifiably irreconcilable?

Sure, the BCS could find another suitor (all it takes is a short skirt and a wad of cash), but would it have the same sustainable power base without the biggest media base in American sports?

A divorce would absolutely spell, at the very least, instability and questionable viability on the part of the BCS, and it could be the clearest path to its demise and then to a playoff system.

Keep in mind that the BCS’s current scheme (contracts with bowls, conferences, TV deal, etc.) is up for renewal at the end of the 2013 season.

ESPN Goes Off the Air

In a scenario that’s almost difficult to fathom, what if some catastrophic event caused the sudden or slow demise of ESPN?

Yes, ESPN stretches its hand a bit too far, goes bankrupt or slowly loses its grip on the sports nation…then what happens to the BCS?

I realize that this is the most absurd set of circumstances on the list, but I ask you, friend, who thought 2011 would pay witness to the firing of both Jim Tressel and Joe Paterno?

Power Schools Decide They Aren’t Making Enough Money

Several schools that dot the college football landscape basically control what goes on from a conference, or to a lesser degree, a national standpoint (i.e., Texas, USC, Florida, Notre Dame, etc.), and if and when these power players decide that the BCS format doesn’t offer the level of financial gain they desire, it’s over for the showcase of college football.

The financial actuality of the BCS system has been proven to be less than savory than assumed for schools gaining BCS berths and the conferences sending them. 

The foundation of the BCS and its partnerships with the bowls and their knock on cronies suck up a great deal of money before schools and conferences get their cut.

Yes, the BCS’s sustainability is almost triangular in form…you have the TV networks and rights on one point, the universities and conferences on the other and the BCS is third, relying on a delicate balance of the two to survive (aka the “Bizarre Love Triangle” BLT).

If enough power schools decide they’ve had enough of the injustice, then the BCS could pack up and leave in the night, not unlike the Baltimore Colts' sordid trip to Indianapolis in 1984.

University Brass Cries Foul

Another group that could potentially trip up the continued run of the BCS is the university chancellors and presidents who have recently put their stroke on display through the conference realignment debacle.

Yes, if this consortium, which is somewhat independent from the NCAA and is really at the root of the BCS’s powerful foundation, decides that they want the BCS to go, they could quite possibly pull off the coup necessary to end the reign permanently.

As academics, this group has just the level of credibility necessary to declare the BCS system inequitable, greedy and ultimately not in the best interest of their institutions and student athletes.

The underlying current for change would no doubt involve financial gain (just as the conference realignment flurry has proven) but on the surface, this learned faction has perhaps the perfect angle for attack.

TV Contracts are Not Renewed

As mentioned in the discussion of the BCS’s relationship with ESPN, the current scheme of the “showcase of college football” is up for renewal after the 2013 season, which presents an opportunity for the media to lay waste to the “Series.”

Yes, if ESPN decided to part ways with the BCS and other players such as FOX, NBC and CBS decided that the price was too high (or that they too wanted a better system), then all the sudden the BCS has a circus without a time slot.

It’s sort of like the old adage, “All dressed up with no place to go.”

A purposeful media block of the BCS seems outrageous, but if the correct dominoes were to fall and the BCS got a little greedy, then anything could happen.

One of the Big 4 Conferences Just Says “No”

Along the same lines as the university brass or influential institutions refusing to accept the terms of the BCS, one or two of the elite FBS conferences balking could produce a similar coup.

The most impact would be made by either the SEC or Big Ten saying “enough is enough” (and they both have the motivating factor of playing under the “two team per conference” limit when in theory their No. 3 and No. 4 teams are often thought of as superior to the No. 1 in other leagues), but the Pac-12 and Big 12 combined could make similar waves.

The truth is that the BCS is not the source of the huge financial windfall for conferences that it seems on the surface, and teams/conferences that make the big dance don’t always walk away with a fat paycheck.

At least part of this is due to the controlling nature of the BCS and its member bowls that ensures their own financial viability by dictating local travel arrangements, timing, etc. to what ultimately results in an unfair monetary burden for both the team and the conference they represent.

The conferences are in reality huge power bases, a fact that has never been more evident than these last two years…if they cry foul on the BCS and refuse participation, then the showcase will either be sustainably altered (which is what we’re seeing begin to happen now) or gone completely.

The FBS Splits

Realistically, splitting the FBS into two subdivisions would do more for fairness in major college football than any other option, and it could spell the end of the BCS at the same time.

It is absolutely ludicrous to believe that all teams are “created equal” in the FBS and therefore teams from the WAC and C-USA do not have the same opportunities for glory as those from the SEC and even Big East.

This fact is clearly illustrated this season by Houston and Oklahoma State; neither are necessarily longtime power brokers in the sport, but both are solid, long-standing football programs.

If both the Cougars and Cowboys finish their 2011 campaigns blameless (and what else could you ask a team to do), the Cowboys will make the BCS title game (as they should) and the Cougars will hope like hell they can become the first ever C-USA team to make a BCS bowl.

Now, you could argue (and I personally would agree) that by virtue of playing a “lesser” schedule that Houston deserves no more than a nod from the BCS, but that fact is exactly the problem.

If they can’t play for the FBS BCS title (no matter what they do, including blowing out teams in every single game on their schedule), then why are they “in” the FBS?

Are they there to pad the BCS schools' schedules?  Are they there so there can be 120 teams?  Are they there so they can fill the leftover slots in 35 bowl games?

Splitting the FBS into two separate (but now actually equal) divisions who both play for a real championship via a playoff system (look, it’s a football field, we’re going to play a game on it and the winner gets a crystal football) would not only end the BCS, it would end the inequality that is alive and well in major college football.