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NBA Free Agents 2011: Predicting the Top 15 Fattest Contracts

Ethan NorofNov 26, 2011

This season's free-agent crop isn't as loaded as the prized 2012 class headlined by Chris Paul and Dwight Howard, but there's still plenty of talent to be harbored from this group.

Teams in need of a big man are going to have a few interesting options available with some top-tier options available, and it will certainly be interesting to track all of the developments and see the level of interest each draws on the open market.

It will be fun to watch how player movement is affected by a truncated offseason, as these high-profile free agents have been waiting to cash in on a serious payday.

Note: All asterisks denote restricted free agents. Those who reached free agency via the amnesty clause have not been included.

15. Kris Humphries, Power Forward

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Humphries was the beneficiary of an underwhelming performance by raw rookie Derrick Favors and Brook Lopez's inability to grab a rebound.

He's never been flashy throughout his career, but he did make the most of his opportunity on the court by averaging a double-double last season with 10.0 points per game and 10.4 rebounds.

The majority of his offensive looks come around the basket, so he's best paired with a center who can stretch the floor from the perimeter.

His stock will be among the most volatile in free agency, but someone is going to pay him to dominate the glass.

Predicted Landing Spot: Toronto Raptors

14. Carl Landry, Power Forward

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All Landry does is consistently contribute at a high level when given the opportunity, and he's illustrated that with three different teams: Houston, Sacramento and New Orleans.

Now, he'll get a chance to prove it when a club inks him to have the role that he deserves.

Although his career averages of 12.1 points and 5.1 rebounds might be a bit underwhelming on the surface, Landry embodies the type of grit and toughness that teams could really use beneath the bucket, and that intangible contribution boosts his value significantly.

There will be some teams scared off by his size at just 6'9" and 248 lbs, but he's been able to overcome that throughout his career and has shown that he's a successful NBA player.

Predicted landing spot: Boston Celtics

13. Jason Richardson, Shooting Guard

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Richardson made more than $14 million with Orlando last season, but he's already gone on the record as someone willing to take a pay cut in an effort to win a championship.

It's widely expected that the Magic will turn to J.J. Redick as a starter, so Richardson won't be back with the club.

While Richardson would represent an upgrade for several teams with a deficiency at the shooting guard position, it's going to have to be one that has the short-term cap space necessary to land the accomplished veteran.

There are only a handful of teams he could join if he's serious about a title, and an obvious one springs to the forefront when reading into his comments.

Predicted landing spot: Chicago Bulls

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12. Rodney Stuckey, Point Guard*

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The curious case of Rodney Stuckey is one that even the Detroit Pistons haven't yet figured out.

Although the team has had some preliminary talks about potentially pairing Stuckey next to rookie Brandon Knight in the backcourt, there are serious question marks about how the duo could fare together.

He's a bit of a 'tweener, which hurts his stock from some perspectives, and he's never really been shown to be the facilitator that the team had hoped for when selecting him out of Eastern Washington.

It's very possible that Stuckey signs an offer sheet with a different club, but it's going to have to be a completely outlandish offer for the Pistons to choose not to match it, and that's rather unlikely.

Predicted landing spot: Detroit Pistons

11. DeAndre Jordan, Center*

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Jordan flashed exactly what he was capable of doing with the Clippers last season, and finally showed the potential that many had seen in him since coming out of Texas A&M.

Averaging 7.8 rebounds and a stout 1.8 blocks in just 27 minutes of playing time over 66 games as a starter, Los Angeles would be foolish to do anything that stunts his development, and they would be especially short-sighted to let him slip away.

Still just 23 years old, Jordan has the size to really dominate near the rim, and his ability to jam it home is not one that should be understated.

The team might have to pay more for his potential now than his production, but that's a trend that's going to be bucked sooner than later.

Predicted landing spot: Los Angeles Clippers

10. Marcus Thornton, Shooting Guard*

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Thornton barely got off of the bench in New Orleans, so it's obvious that a change of scenery and a legitimate chance at playing time is exactly what Thornton needed.

Upon arriving in Sacramento, Thornton absolutely exploded on the offensive end for the Kings, pouring in 20 (or more) points on a regular basis and looking like a very nice weapon.

His defense is still admittedly a work in progress, but that's not what makes him most valuable as a player, and any interested club will know that.

He's already said that he wants to be back in California's capital, so how will playing time be divvied up amongst a crowded backcourt?

Predicted landing spot: Sacramento Kings

9. Nick Young, Shooting Guard*

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Young proved to be a volume scorer for Washington last season, and he more than doubled up on his scoring output from 2009-10 (8.6 points) to his 2010-11 mark of 17.4 points per game.

While he will never be a master of shot selection, Young showed that he wasn't afraid to extend his game to new ends last season, taking 271 three-point shots as juxtaposed to the previous season when he launched just 170 from distance.

His athleticism is underrated, and he's consistently shot above 80 percent from the foul line, but he'll have to continue to improve defensively if he wants to be seen as a better all-around contributor.

The Wizards have made every indication that they'll match whatever offer he receives, so it's hard to imagine him suiting up with another club.

Predicted landing spot: Washington Wizards

8. Arron Afflalo, Shooting Guard*

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Afflalo emerged as a serious player for Denver last season, and he's going to be an important part of what the team does going forward.

After the Nuggets lost both J.R. Smith and Wilson Chandler to China due to the lockout, it's imperative for the team to retain a blossoming player in Afflalo, who has shown he can be the starting shooting guard for the future.

He took a step forward in scoring, field goal and free throw percentage, and he registered a mark of above 40 percent from the three-point line for the third consecutive season.

That's the type of player who could make for a dangerous pairing alongside Ty Lawson for years to come.

Predicted landing spot: Denver Nuggets

7. Jeff Green, Forward*

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Let's just put it out there: Green did not look good during his initial tenure with the Celtics.

It's awfully tough to adjust to a veteran team when one arrives at the trade deadline, and Green looked like he was searching for a role throughout his first go-around in Boston.

There was a lot of pressure on Green's shoulders to immediately produce on both ends of the court upon his arrival, and sporadic playing time certainly didn't help his cause.

As the Celtics' big three ages and the club looks for depth while maintaining an eye on the future, Green helps the team achieve both of those goals and is a much better player than he showed.

Predicted landing spot: Boston Celtics

6. Jamal Crawford, Shooting Guard

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Crawford has bounced around the league throughout his career, playing for four different teams, but that hasn't stopped him from finding success in every stop along the way.

He's scored 50 (or more) points three times for three different teams, and that type of scoring isn't a skill that's suddenly going to dissipate over night.

With the ability to anchor a second unit as the sixth man, Crawford has value beyond what he brings to the table as a player, as he's demonstrated a consistent ability to thrive in that role.

Predicted landing spot: Portland Trail Blazers

5. Thaddeus Young, Forward

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While Young is someone the Sixers will have to overpay now to retain for the long term, it's going to be worth every cent the team spends.

After just four seasons in the league, Young has put his unreal athleticism on display fervently, and the only thing separating him from truly reaching new heights is playing time.

He's had to compete with Andre Iguodala for minutes at small forward, and with Evan Turner joining the party last season, Young saw the lowest amount of playing time of his career since his rookie season.

Interestingly, Young established a career high in field goal percentage and rebounds, and considering he's only 23 years old, there's plenty of time for his stock to continue to rise.

Predicted landing spot: Philadelphia 76ers

4. Tyson Chandler, Center

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Chandler's value will wind up being inflated from wherever it might have been prior to Dallas winning a title last season, but one season changes a lot in terms of a player's perceived value.

He'll be able to spin his case by stating he was the obvious missing link in the Mavericks' championship puzzle, and any team with a hole for a defensive-minded stopper in the middle will likely (cap space permitting) take a look.

It's going to be tough for the Mavs to retain Chandler under the new restrictions of the collective bargaining agreement, and he's already said he's not planning on giving the team any sort of discount to retain his services.

Predicted landing spot: Dallas Mavericks

3. David West, Power Forward

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West is an interesting candidate due to his decision to opt out of a guaranteed $7.5 million with New Orleans and test free agency coming off of reconstructive knee surgery, but he's said to be 100 percent healthy and ready to roll.

A master of the pick n' pop game, West can really pour it on in the right offense, but he has to have the right people around him in order to make it work.

He flourished alongside Chris Paul, and as one of the best power forwards available, West is going to command a lot of attention from teams looking to pair its point guard with a presence down low.

Previously, West was thought to have an interest in joining either New Jersey or Indiana, and both teams could really use his services.

Predicted landing spot: Indiana Pacers

2. Marc Gasol, Center*

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Gasol had a very mediocre regular season by his own standard, averaging just 11.7 points, 7.0 rebounds and 1.7 blocks, but the postseason was a completely different story.

He really brought it when it was time for the postseason, and he averaged 15 points, 11.2 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game, and those are the numbers he will use to make his next contract.

While the developing big man has made no secret about his desire to remain with Memphis for the long haul, it's going to be tough to fit his next deal under the cap after the team extended both Zach Randolph and Mike Conley.

As a restricted free agent, the Grizzlies will have the final say, and odds are this team finds a way to bring back its major piece.

Predicted landing spot: Memphis Grizzlies

1. Nene, Power Forward / Center

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Nene's decision to exercise his early termination clause has left Denver awfully thin along the front court, but that's not his concern.

He's entering the market as the best big man available, and that's not something that can be understated considering where his career looked like it was headed just a few seasons ago.

Nene has established himself as a dominant force around the basket, and he's shot better than 60 percent from the floor in two of the last three years.

Although some might consider him undersized and others would argue about whether he's a power forward or a center, there's something that everyone can agree on with Nene: He adds significant value to any team.

The Nuggets desperately need to retain him, and it's hard to imagine another team giving him as much as Denver could offer.

Predicted landing spot: New Jersey Nets

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