NBA Predictions 2011-12: 50 Bold Predictions for Shortened Season

A shortened 2011-12 NBA season due to the lockout is better than not seeing basketball at all.

With a compacted schedule comes certain repercussions for some while it presents glorious opportunities for others, and an extended offseason has had different meanings for players around the league.

How will it impact aging clubs like San Antonio, Los Angeles and Boston?

What about exciting youngsters like John Wall and Blake Griffin?

Would a more jam-packed schedule lead to more competitive balance, or would veteran teams struggle while young ones like Memphis, Oklahoma City and Chicago rise to the top?

That's what we're here to discuss.

50. Markieff Morris > Marcus Morris in Year 1

There were some surprises when Markieff was drafted ahead of twin brother Marcus, but the Suns saw something that a lot of other teams noticed as well: Markieff may very well be the better power forward in the NBA.

With Phoenix firmly in rebuilding mode and the team looking to add young talents who can contribute immediately, Markieff looks like a decent bet to out produce his twin, who was drafted just a single slot behind him. 

49. Arron Afflalo Makes an NBA All-Defense Team

Afflalo’s defense is not something that should be understated, as it was a huge part of his development as a talented guard last season.

With his ability to clamp down on that end of the floor and a firm understanding of statistics like efficiency ratings, this is one of the boldest predictions on the list.

48. Boston Regrets Trading MarShon Brooks

Boston actually drafted MarShon Brooks before dealing his rights to New Jersey, and that’s a shame because he’d really do well to anchor the scoring surge in the second unit.

The Celtics really need to get youth onto the roster, and with a core of talent that’s rapidly aging, trading Brooks may very well be a move that the club winds up regretting for the long-term.

47. Chase Budinger Is Not the Small Forward of the Future in Houston

For Rockets fans hopeful that Budinger is the long-term answer for the team at the small forward spot—he’s not.

While he has shown some ability to score previously in the league, his game is best suited as a player who spends 20-25 minutes per night on the bench as a scorer in the reserve unit, not being overexposed in the starting five.

46. Derrick Williams Has More Immediate Success Than Kyrie Irving

Irving was the first overall pick, but as for their rookie seasons, Williams should fare better than Irving.

While Irving has (arguably) a higher ceiling than Williams, the latter was far more ready for the NBA coming out of college, and without summer league, training camp or the preseason, there’s going to be a steep learning curve for Irving to endure.

45. Raymond Felton Finds a Long-Term Home in Portland

Felton signed a two-year contract with New York prior to the 2010-11 campaign, but has since been dealt to Denver as part of the Carmelo Anthony trade and subsequently dealt to Portland on draft night.

Now that he seems happy to be a member of the Trail Blazers and on a team that could definitely use him, Felton’s play could return to the level that we saw from him upon his time with the Knicks.

44. Josh Selby Is the Steal of the Draft

Selby’s slide to No. 49 overall was completely shocking, and it still remains one of the biggest mysteries from the 2011 class.

He’s got unbelievable potential waiting to be unlocked, his athleticism is understated, and he makes an improving Memphis team even deeper with an ability to assert himself on the offensive end of the court.

43. Gary Neal Is Ticketed for a Major Role

Neal surprised everybody as an undrafted rookie at age 26, and now he’s ticketed for a heavy workload at age 27.

With Manu Ginobili aging and Tim Duncan unable to do the heavy lifting on his own, Neal is going to have to play a sizable role for the Spurs out of necessity.

James Anderson and Cory Joseph still have some time in front of them before either can be counted on to contribute in an emphatic fashion.

42. Remember Lou Williams? He's Back.

Williams’ role was inconsistent with the Sixers last year, and despite the presence of Jrue Holiday, Williams should see a little bit more playing time than we saw last season.

He’s got an innate ability to step onto the court with the second unit and light it up in a hurry, and he’s really a dynamic weapon that Philadelphia would be wise to use extensively.

41. Tony Allen Continues to Be a Bargain for Memphis

Allen’s contract is one of the best deals in the league at just three years and $10 million, and everyone saw last season why that’s the case.

While he’s certainly not going to light it up on the offensive end consistently, he is more than capable of contributing.

With his stout defense on the perimeter paired with his veteran leadership on a young squad, he’ll continue to rise and prove why he should’ve gotten a fatter deal in free agency.

40. Ty Lawson Makes David Kahn Look Really Bad

Lawson has proven to be a legitimate weapon for the Nuggets, and after David Kahn drafted three point guards in same first round, the one he dealt has proven to be the most talented thus far.

Now that he’s a major cog of the future in Denver, this is the season where Lawson proves that he wasn’t the one the T-Wolves should’ve let slip away.

39. Evan Turner Turns It Around

Turner drew a lot of criticism as the second overall selection in the 2010 class, but he showed some intrigue toward the end of the season and should be in line for a much better sophomore campaign.

He worked with infamous shot doctor Herb Magee, as the majority of his critics have focused around his inability to develop a consistent jumper.

38. Corey Maggette Re-Charges in Charlotte

Maggette was kind of lost searching for a role in Milwaukee, but now that he’s landed in Charlotte, he’s got a real chance to get back to doing what he does best: scoring.

While health is always a concern for the oft-injured forward, he has shown the ability to be a consistent source of offense when he’s on the court, and the Bobcats are desperate for exactly that.

37. Jamal Crawford Goes for 50...Again.

Crawford has scored an incredible 50 points in a single game three times for three different teams.

No matter where he lands next, Crawford is going to be counted on to score, and this could very well be the season he goes off for 50 yet another time during his career.

Crawford has always been a volume scorer.

36. Al Jefferson Averages 20 & 10

Jefferson had a really solid season for Utah last year, and despite his success, a shockingly small amount of people were discussing just how effective he was for a transitioning Jazz team.

He played in all 82 games and put up 18.6 points and 9.7 rebounds, and despite the surplus of size on the roster, there won’t be anyone stealing playing time away from Jefferson.

35. The Nets Make a Legitimate Push for Dwight Howard

This is not a prediction that Howard gets traded during the season, but simply a case that New Jersey goes about its pursuit of Howard very aggressively.

Despite many suggesting that only the Lakers have the necessary resources to pull of such a move, the Nets could be a legitimate contender in a package that involves Brook Lopez and simultaneously appeases Deron Williams.

34. Rudy Gay Exceeds Expectations

Gay was on pace to have a really nice season for the Grizzlies prior to a season-ending shoulder injury, and he’s been underrated around the league for far too long.

While his maximum contract is the subject of scrutiny for some, it’s time to look past his paycheck and see what he’s doing for the Grizzlies—becoming a star.

33. J.J. Redick Exceeds Thrives as a Starter in Orlando

When Orlando matched the three-year, $19 million offer sheet that Redick signed with Chicago, the Magic were going to have to justify it with increased usage of him in the rotation.

With Jason Richardson more than likely to bolt via free agency, Redick will slide in as the starting shooting guard and should produce in a fashion that we haven’t seen from him heretofore during his professional tenure.

32. DeMar DeRozan Averages 20 Points Per Game

DeRozan literally doubled his scoring average from his rookie season during his sophomore campaign.

Although the Raptors are struggling to find a team identity, DeRozan should be prominently featured given his natural scoring prowess. 

He can use his unreal athleticism to an obvious advantage, and it's time for the Raptors to let him loose.

31. Iman Shumpert Thrives for New York

There were a lot of eyebrows raised when Shumpert was taken No. 17 overall by New York, but with every passing day it’s looking like an increasingly shrewd pick.

He’s got legitimate size, unbelievable athleticism and a clear desire to learn, and with the Knicks searching for help in the backcourt, he’ll certainly get an opportunity to show what he can do.

30. Eric Bledsoe Plays an Increased Role for the Clippers

Mo Williams is the starter for the Clippers, but there’s a reason the Clippers traded a future first-round pick to acquire the rights to Bledsoe.

As a starter, he showed interesting intrigue with his ability to contribute across the board, and the Clippers would be wise to get him involved sooner rather than later and capitalize on the immense amount of athleticism harbored on that roster.

29. Kyle Lowry Continues His Breakout Party

Lowry’s breakout season came as a surprise for some, but he’s always been a talent that hasn’t received the playing time he deserves.

Now that he’s the unquestioned starter for the Rockets, he should improve upon his 6.8 assists as a starter and really pour it in on the offensive end as well.

28. Jordan Hamilton Looks Good in Denver

Hamilton slipped in the draft and was actually a part of the trade that brought Rudy Fernandez to Dallas, but Denver is a pretty solid landing spot for the scoring swingman.

He can instantly help the Nuggets’ offense which has lost both Wilson Chandler and J.R. Smith to China, and he’s going to earn a lot of burn right off of the bat.

27. Dexter Pittman Emerges as a Player for Miami

Pittman was an afterthought for Miami after the team selected him in the second round last season, but he’s kept busy at the advice of LeBron James and has used this offseason to really work on his conditioning.

With the Heat still looking for serious answers in the middle, Pittman will have a chance to show what he can do for the club.

26. Chicago Finds a Shooting Guard

Chicago has made no secret about the desire to upgrade at the shooting guard spot, and that’s exactly what’s going to happen this year.

Whether through trade or free agency is to be determined, but this group won’t go through another season with a combination of Ronnie Brewer, Keith Bogans and Kyle Korver manning the position.

25. Tony Parker Bounces Back in a Big Way After Strong Eurobasket

Parker actually had a much better 2010-11 than 2009-10, but for some reason his stock seemingly dropped around the league in a big way.

Well, that won’t be the case this season.

Parker looked completely re-energized at the Eurobasket tournament playing for France, and he needs to be the man leading the charge for the Spurs if the team is going to enjoy anything close to the success that they’ve become accustomed to in San Antonio.

24. Chris Kaman Gets Dealt out of Los Angeles

Between the emergence of DeAndre Jordan and the $12.2 million set to expire on Kaman’s deal, it makes the Clippers’ center a natural target for teams with a void at center.

There’s no reason for Los Angeles to stunt Jordan’s development and keep him off the court assuming the club can get something reasonable in return for Kaman, and that shouldn’t be hard considering the lack of quality centers in this league.

23. Roy Hibbert Cashes in on an Extended Offseason

Hibbert has used the majority of the extended offseason to study the offensive games of those such as Tim Duncan, and it’s really going to benefit his long-term outlook.

At a legitimate 7’2”, Hibbert has the potential to really dominate if he can stay on the court and out of foul trouble, and his success will largely dictate what the Pacers will be able to accomplish.

22. Greg Monroe Becomes Franchise Face of Pistons

The Golden State Warriors drafted Ekpe Udoh one pick before Monroe in 2010, and while Udoh may turn into a player in his own right, the Warriors probably would like to have that pick back.

Monroe really showed out when he got an increased opportunity by averaging 12.0 ppg, 9.1 rebounds, 1.4 steals and shooting 59.2 percent as a starter, and that’s extraordinarily impressive as a young center in this league.

21. Darren Collison Bounces Back for Pacers

When the Pacers traded for Collison prior to the 2010-11 season, it’s likely that the club had higher expectations of him than what he showed.

After averaging just 5.1 assists per game, Collison’s mark should rise to somewhere between seven and eight now that he’s got some further sources of offense surrounding him and the young talent has continued to develop.

20. Rudy Fernandez Keeps Waffling

Fernandez has been going back and forth between his desire to stay stateside in the NBA or return to Europe on a permanent basis, and his tenure in Dallas should go a long way toward making up his mind.

After struggling to earn a consistent role in Portland, the Mavericks are going to need him to assert himself as a prominent piece of the offense to continue the success, and that’s a role he could acclimate to very well.

However, there's legitimate concern that he'll seek to continue his career in Europe, and he's expected to inform the Mavericks prior to the season getting underway that he wants to remain with Real Madrid.

19. Kirk Hinrich Gets Traded. Again.

Hinrich was traded last season from Washington to Atlanta, but after Jeff Teague broke out in the postseason, Hinrich may very well be available.

He’s got an $8 million expiring contract, and while his services could certainly help a competitive club that needs a point guard now, the financial relief after his deal comes off the books adds to his value significantly.

18. Rajon Rondo Loses Ground in the Point Guard Rankings

Ever since Rondo emerged in Boston, most have become fascinated with his play, but this is the year he doesn’t impress quite as many people.

Along with averaging a career-high 11.2 assists last season, Rondo also averaged a career-high in turnovers (3.4), the lowest field goal percentage since his rookie season (47.5) and a putrid 56.8 percent from the foul line.

If the opposition forces him to shoot, there are going to be several long nights ahead.

17. Blake Griffin Develops His Defensive Game

Griffin was lauded last season for his exciting style of play and averaging better than 20 & 10 as a rookie, but he largely flopped on the defensive side of the court.

It’s time that he turns the corner on that end of the floor as well and use his elite athleticism to turn into a force around the rim for the opposition.

16. Ricky Rubio Struggles to Adapt

Some are hoping to see a lot from Rubio in his first season under Rick Adelman in Minnesota—those people may be waiting for a long time.

The European style of play is undoubtedly different from the NBA’s, but with no experience, a horrific jumper and a lack of talent on the roster around him, it’s going to be awfully difficult for him to excel.

15. John Wall Wins Most Improved Player

Wall’s exciting rookie campaign was somewhat put to the side with all of the awe over what Blake Griffin did, and the national audience is going to be floored when Wall hits the hardwood this year.

He’s going to have to cut down on the turnovers, but he’s honed his game all summer, has worked relentlessly on his jumper, and his stats after the All-Star break were eye-popping: 18.5 ppg, 7.4 assists, 1.9 steals.

14. Jamal Crawford Wins Sixth Man of the Year

If Crawford signs somewhere to slide in as the starting shooting guard this prediction goes out the window, but Crawford has shown the ability to thrive in a sixth man role off of the bench.

Many appreciate Lamar Odom’s contributions due to his versatility, but Crawford represents a spark plug within a second unit that simply can’t be ignored.

13. Serge Ibaka Wins Defensive Player of the Year

It wouldn’t be a bold prediction if Dwight Howard’s name was listed here for a fourth straight time.
Ibaka averaged 2.41 blocks per game last season, ahead of Howard’s 2.38, and that’s awfully impressive when one considers the playing time both had available.

Ibaka averaged 28 minutes per game and a whopping 2.8 blocks per start over 44 games, while Howard managed his mark in 78 games started and 10 more minutes per game.

12. Kemba Walker Wins Rookie of the Year

Walker might have been selected ninth overall in a draft that was largely void of talent, but his chances to win Rookie of the Year may very well be the greatest of anyone.

He’s going to get a ton of time on the court on a Charlotte Bobcats team that is desperately searching for a scorer, and he showed in college that he’s a bona fide playmaker despite his lack of size.

11. Dwyane Wade Wins MVP

Wade has a title as well as a Finals MVP to his collection, but despite those accolades he’s missing the title of regular season MVP from his trophy case.

A lot of people predicted that when LeBron joined the fold that it would become a team controlled by him, but it’s become very clear that this is and will always be Wade’s team to lead.

10. Darius Morris Looks Like Lakers Point Guard of the Future

There has been a ton of discussion as to what the Lakers will do for the future at the point guard position, but the answer could very well already be on the roster in rookie Darius Morris.

He likely would have gone a lot higher than in the second round had he returned to school for another season, but this pick could wind up working out like DeAndre Jordan for the Clippers, and Morris could flourish alongside Bryant in the backcourt.

9. Eric Gordon Averages 20-5-5

Gordon averaged 22.3/2.9/4.4 in 2010-11 before his season ended early due to a wrist injury, but this is the year for him to shift it into overdrive.

On a rising Clippers squad, Gordon is very much considered one of the franchise faces within the group, and he should be ticketed for the biggest role of his career in his fourth season.

8. James Harden Proves Why He Was Drafted No. 3 Overall

Harden got off to a slow start when he originally entered the league, but he’s primed to become the starting shooting guard for the Thunder, and that’s a role he’s unlikely to cede to anyone else anytime soon.

Far more athletic than he gets credit for, Harden’s game extends to all over the floor, not just from the perimeter, and he will prove to be a key contributor in the Thunder continuing to grow as a team.

7. Andrei Kirilenko Returns to United States with Emphasis

Kirilenko signed a deal in Russia during the lockout, but with an option to return in his deal, he should certainly do so with a bang.

He’s looked like a completely new player than what we’ve seen from him in recent seasons, and if he can go back to being AK-47 and using his versatility to an advantage, he’s going to make some team very happy.

6. Patrick Patterson Explodes

This is a prediction that is predicated on Luis Scola seeing a dip in playing time, but Patterson’s potential is just oozing with intrigue and he can’t be kept off of the court.

Despite being undersized for the power forward position, Patterson showed that his athleticism allows him to excel, and he could very well show why No. 14 overall as far too low for his draft slot in 2010.

5. Kobe Bryant Has Best Statistical Season Since 2007-08

Much has been made about Bryant’s declining play over recent seasons, and while he’s certainly getting older, part of his falloff in production has to do with an attempt to get his teammates more involved.

After getting embarrassingly swept out of the postseason by Dallas and with an unorthodox knee procedure during the offseason looking as if it did him well, Bryant is looking to put the Lakers back on the map.

4. Golden State Will Not Trade Monta Ellis

There’s been a lot of speculation about Ellis getting dealt throughout the offseason as some have said he and Stephen Curry can’t co-exist in the same backcourt, but new head coach Mark Jackson is excited to see what they can do together.

It’s going to take a whopper of an offer to coax Ellis off of the Warriors roster, and it’s unlikely that a team will pay such a significant price in a truncated season.

3. Los Angeles Clippers Make the Playoffs

The Clippers are a really interesting bunch heading into this season, and this team has a legitimate chance to make the postseason.

It’s certainly not going to be easy, but the Clippers’ combination of exciting youth and talent makes it hard to ignore the rising stock of the “other” Los Angeles team.

They're called bold predictions for a reason.

2. Miami Heat Win the Title

Doesn’t that 9-8 regular season start in 2010 seem like it was ages ago?

The big three reached the championship in their first season together in Miami, and as a club that likely won’t have its chemistry impacted as the result of an extended work stoppage, 2012 could be the year that Wade, LeBron and Bosh bring a title back to South Beach.

1. Tim Duncan Retires After the Season

Duncan was on a very specific playing schedule last season in an effort to preserve him for the entire campaign, but the result was the first time in his prolific career that he failed to average double-digit rebounds.

In a shortened season, it’s going to force Duncan to play more regularly than we saw from him last season, and that type of grind may very well make this season his last.