Georgia vs. Auburn: 5 Reasons the "War Dawgs" Bite Tigers to Win the SEC East

As the old adage states, a picture is worth a thousand words. Georgia vs. Auburn is one of the oldest and most storied rivalries in the South, pitting neighbor against neighbor. Saturday's contest will be the 115th meeting of the two schools. Auburn leads the series 52-54-8. 

But this game is not just another fiercely contested Cat 'n' Dog fight. No. This game is special. For the Bulldogs, trying to right themselves from a tailspin over the last three seasons, the game has special significance. If the Bulldogs win, then they determine their own destiny and lay claim to the SEC East title and a spot in the SEC championship game, a far, far cry from the nadir they found themselves hitting just a little more than 11 months ago when they lost to Central Florida in the Liberty Bowl.

The win would symbolize atonement for the past and validation of themselves, their coach Mark Richt, and the program in the present. It would mean a return to relevancy in the SEC and would part the clouds that have been hanging over the program, allowing the sun to shine down on its future. Oh, yeah, and it probably would hurt recruiting either.

Annually, the game holds special significance for this correspondent. In a recent exchange on a social network with a Florida fan, wallowing in self pity after the loss to Georgia, the Gator inexplicably proclaimed, "Well, I've been a Gator since Charlie Pell (my insertion, 1979-1984) was the coach." To which I replied, "I'm not sure what your point is, but I've been a Bulldog since Johnny Griffith (1961-1963) was the coach...and that was before Vince Dooley!"

Make no mistake. I'm a lifelong Dawg. However, I am also a proud graduate of Auburn University. I began my dream of attending the University of Georgia in 1974, but never quite found my niche there in the wild and woolly (actually their was more nakedness than wool) days of the mid-70s. Having some of my best friends at Auburn, I transferred to the "loveliest village on the Plains" in the winter of 1976. While I never for a moment wavered on my loyalty to my Bulldogs, I loved my time at my alma mater and think of myself as a proud "War Dawg".

This "War Dawg" has chronicled his dismay with Georgia's misfortunes in recent seasons. In my last article, I pointed to this game as the litmus test, in my mind, for just how much Georgia has really improved, noting the collective 4-22 record of the Bulldogs' league contests and the fact that Auburn is arguably the second best team that they will have faced in the current season.

Despite my admitted skeptical and cynical nature, the ol' "War Dawg" believes that these Dawgs are due there day.

Let's take a look the five reasons that the Dogs will skin the Cats this Saturday!

Shock and Awe: Dawgs Will Bombard the Auburn Secondary

Come Saturday evening about seven o'clock, the Auburn Tigers will have the lyrics of a classic 1982 tune by The Gap Band bouncing around in their heads, "I, II, III won't forget it, I, II, III won't forget it, You dropped a bomb on me, baby, you dropped a bomb on me.

To cut to the chase, as erratic as the Dawgs' Aaron Murray has been, in addition to having to play the last two games without his most dangerous weapon, freshman wide receiver sensation Malcolm Mitchell, the Georgia Bulldogs have managed to field what is arguably the best passing attack in the SEC.

While Arkansas is ranked first in passing offense, a statistic that is based primarily upon average per game and aggregate passing yardage, the Bulldogs are ranked first in the conference in passing efficiency—in other words, what they accomplish with their passing attack, taking into account both the good and the bad.

The Bulldogs, second in per game and gross passing yardage, and the Razorbacks both average 8.29 yards per passing attempt. However, the Bulldogs lead the league in yards per completion (13.34), percentage of attempts for touchdowns (9.09 percent), and passing touchdowns (25). Georgia is fourth in pass completion percentage (61.09).

While the Dawgs' 2.91 percent of passes intercepted is only the fifth lowest mark, it is still a far cry from South Carolina's 5.22 percent and Auburn's (cough, cough) 5.34 percent of throws having been picked off. In sum, Georgia has been more slightly more efficient and effective with its passing attack in yards per completion and points than has Arkansas.

Flipping the coin, Auburn is 11th, or next to last, in passing defense, pass defense efficiency and scoring defense, thankful, I am certain, for the much-maligned and soon-to-be Houston Nutt-less "hotty toddies" (like it better than the bear) of Ole Miss who prevented it from being dead last in each category. In short, the Tigers defensive weakness is Georgia's offensive strength. Auburn faced the conference's other top passing attack in Arkansas last month and eventually succumbed to it.

Is it possible that the Bulldogs will be unable to exploit this War Eagle weakness and parlay it into enough points to bury the Plainsmen? Sure. Anything's possible, and games aren't played on paper. But the law of averages combined with the anticipated return to full strength with Malcolm Mitchell in tow suggest otherwise. Best guess here is that the mercurial Murray is going to rise to the occasion and will blow up the Tiger secondary Saturday afternoon.

Sing it, Gap Band, "You dropped a bomb on me, baby...".

Bulldog Air Force Gets Back-Up from Its Infantry (If It Shows Up)

Georgia's freshman tailback Isaiah Crowell, freshly paroled from a one-game suspension for failing a drug test, grew up in Columbus, Georgia. Auburn University is a short drive away across the Chattahoochee River, and Columbus is ripe with Auburn loyalists. In an interview this week, when asked about Auburn and his hard fought recruitment in a town largely divided between Georgia and Auburn fans, Crowell tersely stated, “I never liked Auburn. Point blank, I never liked (them),” he said. “I just never liked Auburn, I don’t know why.”

Crowell went on to offer his mea culpa for having let down teammates, fans, friends, and family via his suspension, his second benching of his young career. One has to imagine that, unless he has been holed up in his dorm room a la Osama Bin Laden over the last few weeks, Crowell has to be hearing the talk. "What's wrong with Isaiah?" "He's too fragile and injury prone." "He sure does take himself out of the game a lot?" "I think he's got either an engine problem or maybe needs heart surgery—so that he will have one."

His decline in productivity combined with the suspension have caused some to question if he is all he was purported to be. Just last week, I observed that his name and Herschel Walker's should never be uttered within the same sentence.

Well, on Saturday, Isaiah has a chance to redeem himself. In Auburn, Georgia and Crowell will be facing the 10th ranked rushing defense in the 12 team SEC. The Tigers have yielded just under 186 yards per game. Only the Kentucky Wildcats and, you got it, the Ole Miss Reb-ears give up more yards on the ground per game than Auburn.  

What better opportunity to make things right by posting a solid game running the football and turning up the heat on a defense that already struggles against and expects to be besieged by the pass and against a school that you "never liked" anyway? Right?

My sense is that young Crowell's attention has been gotten by the negative fallout and blow back related to his suspension and by his coaches. Perhaps the experience has given him a much needed engine tune-up, he and will be revved up and ready to roll to prove himself against the Tigers on Saturday. 

And, hey, if his engine is still idling low and he needs more work under the hood still, then maybe sophomore Brandon Harton's less touted, but clearly revved motor will be running on all cylinders. He looked like he was loaded for bear—oh, but Georgia's not playing Ole Miss—last week in the role of the starter.

Granted, it was against New Mexico State. But, nevertheless, there is something to be said for high motor guys. Playing hard is a virtue.

Todd Grantham Has the Defense on Track

When one takes pause to reflect upon the 2008 and 2009 seasons, where Georgia's defense stands after nine weeks of the 2011 campaign, by comparison, borders on the incredible. During those two seasons, the Bulldog defense hemorrhaged points so profusely that it was in need of a tourniquet and a call to 9-1-1. Let's give the man his due. Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham is either a Houdini or he just knows what the heck he is doing.

After nine weeks, the Bulldogs are ranked seventh in the nation in total defense. Se-venth. Between six and eight. Out of 120 teams. In the nation. The whole country. Right up there with the big boys, Alabama and LSU, who are ranked one and three respectively. Boy howdy!

In Auburn, the Dawgs face a team whose forte is running the football. Auburn, led by tailback Michael Dyer, is second in the SEC in rushing offense, averaging 191.1 yards per game. That strength, however, is right in Georgia's wheelhouse as it is eighth in the nation in rushing defense, yielding just over 91 yards per contest.

On the other hand, Auburn is next to last in the league in passing offense and seventh in passing efficiency . While the Bulldogs are seventh is pass defense (yards yielded), they rank fourth in the SEC and sixth in the nation in pass defense efficiency. 

The Tigers' offense has been very efficient in the red zone, scoring on 88 percent of their opportunities and 60 percent of the time punching it across the goal line. While this closely mirrors the rates of success that opposing offenses have had against Georgia' offense, it should be noted that Bulldog foes have managed to penetrate scoring territory but 19 times, or twice a game, over the course of the season.

What all of this should translate to, especially when you mix in the Dawgs' No. 2 ranking in the SEC in sacks per game and tackles for loss per game (tied for second with Alabama), is that Georgia should be able to focus on stopping Auburn's strength, the run, while forcing them into passing situations where they struggle and the Dawgs have been effective. 

Auburn's Gus Malzahn is is one of the best, most creative offensive coordinators in college football (as well as highest paid). His misdirecting, stretch offense is capable of confounding defenses and producing yards and points. But this year, there is no Cam Newton taking the snaps, making the decisions, running roughshod and pinpointing passes—just mere humans.

Look for the Dawgs' defense to stuff that junk in their yard, get the War Buzzards off the field, and give the offense with more time for tactical strikes against the enemy.

Walsh and Butler Win Rally from Redemption Island to Return to the Game

On paper, though it likely pains Georgia fans to say it, the Auburn Tigers have the edge when it comes to the kicking game. The Plainsmen always seem to have a trusty field goal specialist. Auburn placekicker Cody Parker is no exception. He is a 11-for-14 on the season, 10-for-13 from between the 30 and 50 yard lines. Pretty dependable.

By now, the struggles of Georgia's two-time Groza award nominee Blair Walsh are well chronicled. His erstwhile accuracy of bygone days has given way to exceptionally erratic performance during this his senior season. Walsh's tailspin found him reduced to sharing the kicking duties with Brandon Bogatay last Saturday against New Mexico State.

While Tiger punter Steven Clark averages just a little more than 40 yards per boot, his punt coverage team makes him effective. Auburn is fourth in the SEC in net punting. Georgia's 2009 Ray Guy Award winning punter Drew Butler has seen his punting average dwindle to a paltry (compared to his past averages) 41.94 yards per punt. Unfortunately, his punt defense comrades have not been nearly as supportive of Butler as have Clark's. Georgia has given up a league leading 243 punt return yards, placing them dead last in the conference in net punting (and 104th of the 120 FBS schools) at 34.08. In a battle for field position, this deficiency could be problematic.

In addition, while the Bulldogs have given up two kickoff return touchdowns, one punt return score, and have had one punt blocked, the Tigers' special teams have put up goose eggs in all of these areas.

So by the numbers, everything suggests that Auburn has a solid advantage in the kicking game. But while the stats don't and won't support it, in this case, I have a hunch that Georgia's two proud and accomplished senior kicking specialists are due for a big game. And in their careers as Bulldogs, if ever there was a big game, this is it.

With all that is at stake, look for the Walsh and Butler to win their challenges on Redemption Island and to return to their forms of old in helping to make the Bulldogs the Sole Survivor in the poor stepchild SEC East. Walsh will be perfect on the day, and  Butler will bury the Tigers deep with his signature mortar shots.

"Come on in, guys!"

You Can't Keep a Good Man Down

Ever feel like you are going through a rough patch? Well, most of our rough patches would pale in comparison to the last couple of years for Georgia head coach Mark Richt. The term 'hot seat" has been vastly overused. In the spirit of greater candor, the dude has been on the brink of getting fired, canned, terminated, pink-slipped every day for the last year. If many had their way, he would be gone already.

Most fans can't begin to relate to the mental, physical, and psychological stresses that living and working under the microscopic scrutiny of public opinion that Richt, his family, and staff have been subjected to and have had to endure over these last months.

Richt has had some success against the Tigers in his decade at the Georgia helm. Going into Saturday's contest, Richt is 6-4 against the War Eagles, 3-2 in Sanford Stadium, and had run off a string of four consecutive wins against Auburn before putting up a valiant effort but eventually succumbing to last year's eventual national champion.

Following the win over Florida, both on the field and in the media, Georgia fans were able to see palpable evidence of what most of them already knew. Regardless of the questions surrounding the state of the program and his leadership, Mark Richt is unquestionably a good man. His players gush about what he means to them and about their desire to validate not only themselves but their beleaguered coach, as well.  

As emphasized throughout, this is a high stakes game for the Bulldogs, and they know it. Given their wounded pride from suffering through last year's debacle 6-7 season, their possessing the home field advantage, their genuine affection for their leader and their awareness of all that he has been through, and the fact that the opportunity to win the SEC East title outright is within their grasp, one would find it difficult to imagine that this Bulldog squad will not take the field ready to rise up and leave everything on the Sanford Stadium turf "to win one for the Richt-er".

Nothing against Gene Chizik and the Tigers, but Saturday should be the Dawgs day to shine and for a good man and a good coach to find some respite and redemption.

Call it the Dog Days of fall, if you will. Dawgs bite the Tigers 38-28 to win the SEC East.