Alabama Football: How a Match with Boise State Would Play out in Sugar Bowl

It's no secret that Boise State and Alabama seem destined to meet each other at the end of a season in a clash between David and Goliath.  I reaffirmed this in an article yesterday.

Yes, this matchup certainly would be a great one, and the Sugar Bowl is a fine venue to host it.  It's almost fitting in an ugly sort of way for Alabama fans, as it will be like the Tide will be defending the conference and the home state of the opponent that just beat them, LSU, against foreign interlopers.  

The battle will have nothing to do with any history other than the history that is the 12 games of the 2011 regular season.

Here's a bit of what the pounding might look like.  

The Game Will Be Its Own History, Not a Subject of the Past

Let's get this out of the way first.  These are brand new teams that have little to nothing to do with older teams.  

Boise State is not who they were when they beat Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.  Quarterback Jared Zabransky and the 2006 Broncos' use of trickery in the victory over the Sooners has nothing to do with this team.

The Broncos are also not the same team that lost to Nevada in overtime last year, dashing their BCS bowl hopes.  

On the other side, Alabama is not the same team that lost to Utah in the 2008 Sugar Bowl, and they are not the same team that made Tim Tebow cry in the 2009 SEC Championship game and went 14-0 as national champions.  

To say something like, "An SEC team should always beat a small school," or, "Small schools have beaten big schools and will again!" is like saying, "It has rained before and it may again tomorrow."

Conference Inequalities Can Paint a Picture of the Game

This section will address the disparities between the SEC and the MWC.  

Boise State has moved from the Western Athletic Conference to the Mountain West Conference, a switch from a very weak conference to one slightly better.  It was really more like trading in a 1985 Toyota Corolla for a 1991 Ford Taurus with a primer-gray hood.  

They still play FBS opponents, but even the most proud Boise State fans cannot say with honesty (and credibility) that the average MWC schedule isn't easy.  

"Cupcakes" are often mentioned, as all SEC schools have a few.  Alabama has three weak out-of-conference opponents, one MAC opponent, one Sun Belt opponent and one FCS opponent.  They have one big out-of-conference opponent, a one-loss Penn State team.

Boise State has opponents in their conference and on their schedule that would be called "cupcakes" if they were slotted to play in Alabama's schedule, but the Broncos did play—and beat—SEC challenger Georgia, who looks like the de facto winner of the SEC East.  

Their out-of-conference opponents include "cupcakes" as well, though some fans would attribute this to the fact that big schools are "afraid" to schedule Boise.  This is a poor argument, as opponents are scheduled several years before the seasons begin, and the Broncos were nobodies until they beat Oklahoma.  

In non-conference games, they have beaten one MAC opponent, one C-USA opponent and two WAC opponents (where they took revenge against Nevada).  This is hardly a "tough" out-of-conference schedule, which most Boise State fans claim is an SEC school's "weakness."

Their in-conference schedule is very weak, and their out-of-conference schedule is about the same as Alabama's.  

Because of this, Boise State's numbers are more inflated than Alabama's.

The Boise State Offense Would Be Ineffective Against the Alabama Defense

Boise State supporters could not say, in good conscience, that Kellen Moore and the Broncos offense would shred Alabama.  Shred is an understatement, but irrelevant is not.  

Right now, Boise State has only proven their worth against one opponent, that being Georgia.  In the SEC the Bulldogs rank fifth in scoring defense, third in rushing defense, seventh in pass defense and third in total defense.

Those are decent rankings, but not even closing to being the "cream of the crop."

Alabama is ranked No. 1 in the nation in scoring, rushing, passing and total defense, even after their loss to the No. 1 team in the country, LSU.  

Boise State has never faced a defense like this, past nor present.

Kellen Moore and the rest of the offense would be completely overwhelmed to the point of being irrelevant, just like Alabama's and LSU's offenses were against each other.  

Alabama's Offense Is Just Too Much for the Broncos

The Broncos allowed Georgia to score 21 points, which is more points than Alabama allowed to any team this year, including LSU, and Alabama has only one game this year where they scored fewer than that, which was also against LSU. 

The Tide also has scored over 30 points in seven games this season.  

Bottom line:  The Alabama offense is greatly superior to any offense that Boise has faced this year, and Boise has allowed 134 points, which comes out to over 16 per game.  

Alabama's offense may have been strangled by the LSU defense, but they are clearly superior to the offenses of the eight teams that Boise State as faced.  

While playing seven weak opponents, Boise State is 12th nationally in scoring defense, 53rd in rushing defense, fifth in passing defense and 13th in total defense.  Their stellar defense against weak opponents is tainted by the 21 points they gave up to Georgia.  

Trent Richardson Would Have a Belated Heisman Game

Some would say that Trent Richardson has already had a game where Heisman voters say "That's our guy," but he's yet to do it against a monster defense.  

During the LSU game, the announcers said more than once that Trent Richardson was being "bottled up."  To that, I say you would need a mighty large bottle to contain the 169 yards (89 rushing, 80 receiving) of total offense that he put up.

From top to bottom, Boise State is a good team, but their one weakness would have to be their rushing defense.  

Their defensive line and linebackers are fairly undersized, would be pushed around by Alabama's offensive line and would have one heck of a hard time tackling Trent Richardson.  

He has almost three season's worth of highlights displaying how hard it is to bring him down.  You can stop him five yards past the line of scrimmage, but he just falls forward and does it again the next play for a first down.  

The Broncos defenders may have heart, but heart only goes far when you face a veritable human steamroller.  

Loading the Box and Forcing an Air Attack Wont Work

For the entire year, the Crimson Tide's opponents have been loading the box, fearful of the man-beast that is Trent Richardson.  They have tried to force the Tide to go to the air, and only once this year has it worked.

The one team that partially pulled it off was LSU, and they were then and now the No. 1 team in the country.  The reason I say partially is the fact that LSU allowed Alabama to attempt six field goals and Richardson put up numbers that would be good in any game.  Three missed field goals has very little to do with a visiting team's defense.  

Alabama's quarterback A.J. McCarron has been very effective throwing the ball.  I will be the first to say that he isn't as good as Kellen Moore, but he has put up good numbers against defenses better than Boise State's.  

Gearing up to stop the run and trying to make Alabama a one-dimensional offense just doesn't work.  A.J. McCarron has proven all season that he can make them pay.  

Alabama Would Win, Boise State Would Lose

Once again, the only history that matters coming into a game is what has been accomplished during the current season.  

With both teams' track records, Boise State has given little evidence to argue that they could not only hang with the Tide, but beat them as well.

Alabama, however, has a plethora of bullets they could list and they put the No. 1 team in the nation (and likely the 2011 national champions) to the ropes for 60 minutes, only to come up one leg short.  

The only advantage that Boise State has is the fact that they have not lost to the No. 1 team in the nation by one field goal in overtime.  

Final score:  Alabama 31, Boise State 10

Will This Game Actually Happen?

Alabama must still get past Auburn, and Boise State must still get past TCU.  

TCU has only lost two games this season—one to Baylor and their Heisman-hopeful quarterback Robert Griffin III in a to-the-wire match, and one to SMU in overtime.

Auburn has been a good team this year, much better than expected, but their chances seem dull.  

Boise State could still drop a game and I predict TCU will upset them, which makes any talks of a Sugar Bowl matchup between Alabama and Boise State a silly point.