Andrew Dice-K

Consider the following two pitchers:

The first pitcher throws 204 2/3 innings, striking out 201 and walking 80, while surrendering 25 home runs and 191 hits and posting an ERA of 4.40.

The second pitcher yields half as many home runs, as well as 63 less hits, albeit in 40 less innings. The second guy also walked 14 more batters than the first, and the two each yielded exactly 1.324 baserunners per inning pitched.

I posted an editorial about the Washington Nationals last week in order to gauge whether anyone actually reads the content on this site.

Seeing as I ended up with an entire message board dedicated to spreading the word about what a douchebag I am, complete with photographs culled from my Facebook profile and personal attacks on everything ranging from my thoughts about baseball to my sex appeal, I think it’s safe to say that I will continue to post on Bleacher Report for the foreseeable future, as the hilariously disproportionate response my post generated is among the cooler things I’ve experienced.

As you have probably deducted from the title of this article, the aforementioned two pitchers are both Daisuke Matsuzaka, with the first representing Dice-K’s rookie campaign in 2007 and the second being is performance in 2008.

If I can espouse that kind of passion from fans of the Washington Nationals, I honestly can’t even imagine what horrors await as I take on the self-christened “Red Sox Nation” with a breakdown of why Daisuke Matsuzaka may have been the luckiest pitcher in baseball in 2008, and is probably in for a rude awakening in future campaigns.

Despite maintaining a consistent strikeout rate over his first two seasons in the major leagues (8.8 k/9 in ’07, 8.3 in ’08) and allowing baserunners at exactly the same pace, 2008 Matsuzaka posted a record of 18-3, while the 2007 model barely broke .500 at 15-12.

The performances with which the two Matsuzaka’s arrived at their vastly different won-loss records are telling about what to expect from Dice going forward, and unfortunately, the 18 wins do not appear to be a hint of things to come.

As noted above, the latest version of Matsuzaka had a bit of a problem with control, walking five batters per nine innings including 11 starts in which he walked at least four.

Therefore, in order to have maintained the 1.324 WHIP (walks + hits per inning pitched) of his rookie season as well as lowering his ERA by more than a run despite his spiking walk rate, Dice-K obviously allowed far fewer hitters to reach via base hits in ’08.

Based on what Voros McCracken has taught us about the negative correlation between hits allowed in a season and sustained success at run prevention, does it seem likely that a pitcher who puts as many runners on base via walks as Matsuzaka did last season can continue winning 86 percent of his decisions?

I’m not saying that Daisuke Matsuzaka is bad, but when a pitcher allows as many balls to be put into play as he did last season, especially fly balls, they usually don’t end up as 18-game winners with ERA’s under 3.

I’m guessing that if Dice-K maintains his strikeout, walk and flyball rates in 2009, his record will look closer to that of 2007 than 2008, if not worse. Suck it down, Sox fans.