Notre Dame Football: Tommy Rees, a Statistical Comparison

Notre Dame football’s Tommy Rees has taken his fair share of criticism lately as quarterback of the Irish.  However, most criticism stems from Irish fans who simply use personal observations of Notre Dame games rather than using hard evidence to support their claims.

Looking at the statistics can give fans an accurate view of a player’s strengths and weaknesses versus relying on insufficient accusations of those strengths and weaknesses.

How is Tommy Rees criticized?

Fans often cite two concerns with the Irish signal-caller—a weak arm and a high interception rate.  Then again, Rees supporters cite his ability to read a defense and quick release as positives.  What do the numbers say?

Nine games into the season, Rees has a passer rating of 137.8, ranking him 45th among Division I quarterbacks.  That places him slightly outside the top third of quarterbacks in passer rating with the top passer rating awarded to Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson at 196.7.

Wilson is followed by Houston’s Case Keenum with a passer rating of 192.4 and Baylor’s Robert Griffin III with a passer rating of 188.1.  Meanwhile, the worst passer rating is held by Kent’s Spencer Keith at 91.1.

Of note, two BCS programs have quarterbacks in the bottom-five passer ratings—Kentucky’s Morgan Newton and Washington’s Jake Heaps.

When you really drill down the numbers, Rees has a 65.6 percent completion ratio which ranks him 21st among Division I quarterbacks, so he’s an effective passer.  However, his 7.1 yards per catch is a mere 69th in the nation.  Is this the sign of a weak arm?  Possibly.

Seventeen touchdowns ranks Rees 32nd among his peers though he has the 10th-most interceptions of any Division I quarterback with 10.  One of those interceptions sticks out in Notre Dame fans’ minds as a bullet into T.J. Jones’ earhole during the South Florida contest.  That interception is, actually, blamed on Jones. 

The most accurate conclusion from the numbers above is that Rees is a double-edged sword.

It’s difficult for Irish fans to swallow the number of interceptions Rees throws, but he moves the Irish offense and is an above-average quarterback.  Is he Heisman-caliber?  No, but he’s a good quarterback who’s learning to command his offense.

The most positive trend in favor of Rees is the fact that he ranks 35th in pass attempts but 25th in completions.  He’s more efficient than most of his counterparts which is why he’s 21st nationally in completion percentage.

Rees may have hit his ceiling, but Irish fans have to understand he was thrust into the spotlight earlier than expected last year.  Then again, he was thrown into action when a 5-star, blue-chip senior couldn’t live up to his billing.  Furthermore, Rees is only a sophomore.

The numbers support Irish fans’ assertions on both ends of the spectrum.  He's an effective passer, but he gives the ball away too often.  Where will Rees go from here—plateau or progress?