Big Ten Football: Power Rankings Week 10

What a wild, strange and unpredictable season so far.

On a day that would end with far and away the best two teams in the country playing a game in which the deciding factors were four missed field goals, a 70-plus-yard punt,and an interception for the ages, the Big Ten upset roulette was a fitting undercard.

Let's all just face the facts: The Big Ten conference just isn't very good this year.  We've all watched the games, seen the ugly defensive stalemates, witnessed Ohio State's assault on the forward pass and Michigan's subversion of the "hybrid" offense, laughed as front-runners have repeatedly fallen and cried when the same fate befell their team.

This is very simply a conference filled with a bunch of teams that are good but flawed, and because of these flaws there is always a chance that the things we expect are going to be turned completely around.

This isn't great for the conference's national reputation—just ask the ACC, which has been pulling this kind of crap for years—but for Big Ten fans this is the most competitive, wide-open, nail-biter of a season that we have seen in years.

So, in other words: This is great.  Unless, of course, you are in to the whole "conference hegemony" thing. In that case, the SEC has some real estate on Mars that you might be very interested in.

12. Indiana 1-9, 0-6 (11)

Last Week: Lost to Ohio State 34-20

Indiana put together almost a complete game until Ohio State slammed the door shut by forcing a late turnover to ice the win, 34-20.  This effectively banished Indiana to the newly vacant No. 12 spot in the power rankings.  Get comfortable, Hoosier fans.

On offense, Indiana showed the kind of fight that had been inconsistent all season.  Indiana jumped out to a quick 10-point lead in the first quarter before notching a field goal before the break to keep the score tied at 13.  After Ohio State scored a touchdown to take the lead in the second half, Indiana answered to knot things at 20.  Had it not been for an interception late in the fourth quarter, Indiana might have tied the game again at 27.

The Hoosier offense continues to improve thanks to the play of Tre Roberson and Stephen Houston in the backfield.  Roberson was 11-of-21 for 173 yards and a touchdown.  He also led Indiana in rushing with 79 yards at 4.2 yards per carry.  Houston provided 57 yards rushing and a touchdown for Indiana.  However, the X-factor on offense was receiver Kofi Hughes, who caught eight of Roberson's passes for 146 yards and a touchdown.  

Because of the effort of the three underclassmen, Indiana was able to keep pace with a defense that has in back to back weeks blanked Illinois and held powerful Wisconsin to its lowest offensive output of the season.

Indiana's downfall was, characteristically, on the defensive side.  It is hard to win any game when you give up over seven yards per rush to three different players, and that is just what Indiana did, allowing Dan Herron, Carlos Hyde and Braxton Miller to all gain more than 100 yards each on the ground for the day.

Indiana has the latest bye week of any Big Ten team, and at this point it is hard to tell just how much it will help.  The Hoosiers have looked overmatched far more often than they have put up a competent fight in games against the upper half of the Big Ten.  

After the bye week the Hoosiers have to travel to Michigan State, but it is hard to imagine them matching the success of Minnesota.  Thus, a game versus Purdue in the final week of the season looks to be Indiana's only other realistic chance for Indiana to double its win total for the year.

Next Week: bye

11. Minneesota 2-7, 1-4 (10)

Last Week: Lost to Michigan State 31-24

It is starting to look like the light has gone on for Jerry Kill's team.  Last week the Gophers put together a great fourth quarter to steal a win against Iowa, and this week Minnesota put up more points and yards on Michigan State than just about every other team outside of Wisconsin.  Ultimately, it fell just short.

MarQueis Gray has been a large part of the Minnesota offensive revival.  Last week was easily his best game of the season to date, but against MSU he outdid even that.  Gray finished the day completing 19 of his 33 passes for a career-high 296 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 70 more yards. (The downside? Two interceptions, one of which came on Minnesota's last gasp effort to send the game to overtime.) 

The beneficiary of Gray's newfound confidence as a passer was the Big Ten's best-kept secret, Da'Jon McKnight.  McKnight is one of the most physically gifted receivers in the league but has had a quiet season as the Minnesota quarterback situation has oscillated between average and downright bad.  McKnight finished the game with 174 yards on nine catches and three touchdowns including a 64-yard scamper in which McKnight ran through three tackles.

On defense Minnesota didn't play shutdown football, but the large number of yards allowed (401) hides the effectiveness of the unit as a whole.  Michigan State was held to just 3.8 yards per rush on the ground and was only able to convert four of 13 third-down attempts.

The road doesn't get any easier for Minnesota in the short term as the Gophers are matched up with Wisconsin this week.  However, games against Northwestern and Illinois now look much more winnable.  A strong finish to the season could give Minnesota four wins and the kind of optimism that the program hasn't seen in a few years. 

Next Week: vs. Wisconsin

10. Illinois 6-3, 2-3 (9)

Last Week: bye

Illinois got a week off to stop the bleeding.

Next week the Illini start in on the stretch run of the season with back to back home games against Michigan and Wisconsin followed by a trip to play a rapidly improving Minnesota team.

This is a Ron Zook team we are talking about here, so really, anything over these next three weeks is possible.  Illinois could win all three or lose all three.  Beat Minnesota and lose to Wisconsin or vice versa.

Regardless, this could be Zook's last stand.  The embattled coach has already squandered all the good will he built up over the first half of the season, and the locals are increasingly restless with the continued struggle of Illinois to attain anything approaching consistent success.

A win against Michigan next week would go a long way toward easing pressure on Zook, but the Wolverines will be looking for their own bounce back victory after falling to Iowa on the road.

Next Week: vs. Michigan

9. Purdue 4-5, 2-3 (7)

Last Week: Lost to Wisconsin 62-17

It was inevitable.  One team was going to run into the Wisconsin buzzsaw.  After back-to-back, last-second losses, Wisconsin made sure Purdue wouldn't have a prayer.

Things actually started out on a positive note for the Boilermakers.  After Wisconsin's first two scores Purdue was able to answer with a touchdown and a field goal respectively.  Then the second quarter started and everything fell apart.  Wisconsin scored 24 points in the quarter and 24 more in the second half.  That Purdue was able to score one more touchdown hardly even matters.

Purdue ended the game with just 286 yards of total offense, not even cracking five yards per play.  Caleb TerBush was largely ineffective in the passing game, completing just 52 percent of his passes for 103 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions.  Not one Purdue runner was able to top 50 yards—Ralph Bolden came closest with 49—as the team finished with just 120 yards on the ground.

Defensively, well, let's just say that things didn't go Purdue's way and leave it at that.

If you need more detail, try 604 yards allowed on 7.7 yards per play should suffice.  Montee Ball was an absolute terror against the Boilermakers on his way to 224 yards on just 20 carries.  Russell Wilson was equally impressive as he completed 75 percent of his passes for just over 200 yards and two touchdowns.

Purdue has put together some good performances on the year, but those have been few and far between.  The Boilermakers are still two games out of bowl contention and must steal one of the two home games coming up against Ohio State and Iowa, as well as win the annual rivalry game against Indiana.  With the way Purdue has played run defense the last two weeks, Boilermaker fans shouldn't hold their breath.

Next Week: vs. Ohio State

8. Northwestern 4-5, 2-4 (8)

Last Week: Beat Nebraska 28-25

Northwestern did its part to completely screw with the status quo in the Big Ten Legends Division with a shocking win over Nebraska in Lincoln.

Northwestern only got about one half of play out of starting quarterback Dan Persa, but that didn't slow the Wildcats down one bit.  Persa was just 9-of-14 for 79 yards and an interception before leaving the game with a shoulder injury.  Backup/do-everything back Kain Colter replaced Persa and outdid the senior by completing four of six passes for 114 yards and a touchdown while running for another 54 yards and two touchdowns.  Between the three quarterbacks (Trevor Siemian threw four passes late for 68 yards), receiver Jeremy Ebert pulled in 148 yards through the air and a touchdown while Jacob Schmidt added 54 yards and a touchdown.

On defense Northwestern was able to hold Nebraska to just 118 yards rushing on 3.6 yards per carry. However, in true Northwestern fashion the defense did give up 298 yards passing and two touchdowns to Taylor Martinez through the air.

The most impressive aspect of the game was how Northwestern was able to close out the Huskers.  While the Wildcats have had a hard time finishing games this year and were without the team's leader and starter at quarterback, Northwestern put together two long touchdown drives in the fourth quarter to outpace Nebraska as it did the same.

Northwestern's win on Saturday could quite possibly be the most crucial win of the season.  Not only is this Northwestern's most impressive victory of the year—beating a top-15 team—it is a must have win that puts Northwestern two games away from the all-important six-win mark with games coming up against Rice and Minnesota.

Next Week: vs. Rice

7. Michigan 7-2, 3-1 (4)

Last Week: Lost to Iowa 24-16

Michigan went ahead and dusted off that "second-half collapse" meme for old time's sake, and in the process all but eliminated itself from the Big Ten title race.

The Wolverine offense was downright ineffective for large stretches of the game.  The game started with two straight three-and-outs that allowed Iowa to jump out to a quick seven-point lead.  After scoring a touchdown to tie the game Michigan's three second-quarter possessions ended: punt, fumble in Wolverine territory that led to an Iowa field goal, goal-line interception—a 10-point swing in a game decided by eight.

In the second half the defense tightened up, allowing just over 100 yards and only one touchdown, but the offense once again failed to convert drives into points, settling for a field goal in the third quarter and failing to score on four straight attempts from inside the Iowa 5-yard line at the end of the game.

Denard Robinson completed only 45 percent of his passes but still managed 194 yards and two touchdowns.  However, his careless fumble trying to escape a sack led to an Iowa field goal, and his pass into coverage late in the second quarter was tipped and intercepted.  More troubling was his inability to connect with receivers downfield as he overthrew numerous vertical passing routes.

However, once the Wolverines went into hurry up mode in the fourth quarter the offense put together 157 yards and a touchdown.

While there were a couple of controversial calls at the end of the game, the Wolverines cannot blame the refs for this loss.  Despite the defense holding Iowa to just 302 yards and four third-down conversions,  the offense spent three quarters looking disorganized and out of sync.  If Michigan cannot find a way to move the ball more effectively this week against a better Illinois defense, the possibility of an 0-4 finish to the season will look a lot less like a nightmare than a reality. 

Next Week: at Illinois

6. Iowa 6-2, 3-2 (12)

Last Week: Beat Michigan 24-16

It wasn't pretty, but Iowa eventually took care of business to bounce back from a loss to Minnesota a week ago.

The Hawkeyes barely broke 300 yards of total offense, and were stopped almost completely in the second half, but the offense put together three long touchdown drives while taking advantage of two Michigan turnovers to end the first half, and it proved to be enough.

The star on the day was Marcus Coker, who carried the ball 29 times for 132 yards and two touchdowns.  Coker didn't have an easy time of it, but did enough to pick up yards and keep the Hawkeyes' three touchdown drives going, and his fourth-quarter touchdown ended up being the difference in the game.

Defensively Iowa was much improved after last week's loss to Minnesota.  Michigan was only able to gain 3.4 yards per rush attempt and Denard Robinson was held to less than 50 percent passing with two turnovers.  Most importantly, after going belly up a week ago against Minnesota in the fourth quarter, Iowa came up with a crucial end of the game goal line stand.

Now the Hawkeyes have two more games against Michigan State and Nebraska in which to win the Legends Division.  As inexplicable as it may seem, the team that lost to Minnesota a week ago could go to the Big Ten championship game if it wins out. It has been that kind of year in the Big Ten.

Next Week: vs. Michigan State

5. Nebraska 7-2, 3-2 (1)

Last Week: Lost to Northwestern 28-25

Nebraska fumbled away the ability to control its own destiny in the Legends Division race almost as quickly as it stole it from Michigan State a week ago.

After holding Michigan State to less than 200 yards of total offense, Nebraska gave up 464 yards on nearly six yards per play to Northwestern.  Northwestern was able to gain 203 yards on the ground and another 261 through the air, and all without starting quarterback Dan Persa for the second half.

The Nebraska run game was disappointing on its way to 118 yards on 3.6 yards per carry.  Rex Burkhead had just 57 yards and Taylor Martinez 62 as the Huskers only scored on the ground once. Martinez made up for the lack of production on the ground by doing what teams have done to Northwestern all season long: Pass for a billion yards.  

Well, not quite a billion, but Martinez's 298 yards and two touchdowns on a completion percentage of 76 percent is impressive nonetheless.  Four receivers had better than 40 yards on the day and eight different Huskers caught passes.

Now, for the hard part.  Of the four remaining games (at Penn State, at Michigan, vs. Iowa) this home game against the struggling Wildcats was supposed to be the easiest.  While there is still a chance Michigan State trips up over the next few weeks the only chance Nebraska has at Indy is if the Huskers find a way to win out while hoping for that MSU loss.

As up and down as this team has played during the course of this season,  it is hard to imagine Nebraska putting together a good enough sustained effort to make it through the next three games unbeaten.

Next Week: at Penn State

4. Wisconsin 7-2, 3-2 (6)

Last Week: Beat Purdue 62-17

Wisconsin is back—at least the Wisconsin that dominates lesser opponents on the way to lopsided scores and inflated stats.

Outside of a little drama in the beginning, this one wasn't much of a game.  After trading scores in the first half the Wisconsin defense clamped down and the offense took off. Montee Ball bounced back from his first sub-100-yard rushing game to run for 224 yards on just 20 carries and scoring three touchdowns.  Russell Wilson provided 204 yards of offense through the air and another 76 on the ground as well as three touchdowns of his own (two passing, one rushing).

Defensively, Purdue just never got off the ground.  Even the two early scores in the first quarter came on short drives, and the only extended drive the Boilermakers had all day—a 76-yard touchdown march—came with Purdue already down 24 points.

Wisconsin now has to start rooting hard against its Leaders Division foes.  The Badgers' only chance at the Big Ten title game is if both Penn State and Ohio State lose a game in the coming weeks, setting up a winner-take-all showdown with Penn State in the final week of the season.

Wisconsin isn't out of the running yet, but for a team that came into the season dreaming of national championships, having to root against other Big Ten teams just for a chance at a Big Ten title has got to be about as close to a worst-case scenario as any Wisconsin fan could have dreamt up this offseason.

Next Week: at Minnesota

3. Michigan State 7-2, 4-1 (5)

Last Week: Beat Minnesota 31-24

On a day when the two other Legends Division challengers both fall in upsets, escaping is enough.

Escape is all Michigan State did on Saturday as Minnesota came out strong and refused to go away until an interception in the final seconds sealed the game for the Spartans.

Defensively, this is unquestionably Michigan State's worst game of the season.  Despite a win last week against Iowa, this Minnesota team is not the kind that should be able to hang nearly 300 passing yards on a Michigan State secondary that came into the game the best in the conference.  Da'Jon McKnight alone did more damage receiving than some teams have done with the entire passing game.

On the ground Michigan State had more luck, holding Minnesota to just three yards per carry.  However, the Gophers were still able to gain 119 yards against the conference's best run defense.

Thankfully for the Spartans, Kirk Cousins returned to form after a disappointing performance at Nebraska.  The senior signal caller completed over two-thirds of his passes for 295 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions and was responsible for most of Michigan State's offensive success (15 of the Spartans' 21 first downs came by the pass).  Le'Veon Bell continued to separate himself as the best option in the Michigan State backfield with 96 yards on 15 carries.

Michigan State now has the enviable position of controlling its own destiny in the Legends Division as well as the easiest remaining schedule of any of the Big Ten title contenders.  If the Spartans can make it through a trip to Iowa City next week—not an easy win by any means—the odds are very good that the Spartans can finish the season with two straight wins against Indiana and Northwestern and earn a trip to Indy in December.

Next Week: at Iowa

2. Ohio State 6-3, 3-2 (2)

Last Week: Beat Indiana 34-20

Ohio State's quest to take football back a century continues in startlingly impressive fashion as the only thing missing from Ohio State's dominant rushing performance is the cleat marks up and down Indiana's defense.

Ohio State did just about anything it wanted to with the run game.  Dan Herron led the Buckeyes with 148 yards and a touchdown on just 14 carries—an impressive 10.6 yards-per-carry average.  When Herron wasn't turning his 14 carries into a first down per, Carlos Hyde was coming just short with his 14—116 yards at 8.3 yards per carry for a touchdown.

Even quarterback Braxton Miller got into the act with 104 yards on 14 carries of his own and two touchdowns on the ground, including an 81-yard touchdown.

Through the air, things weren't so smooth.  Miller completed just five of his 11 attempts, was sacked six times and threw one interception.  His 55 yards and five yards per attempt pale in comparison to his total output on the ground.

On the other side, Ohio State continued to play good defense by holding Indiana to 4.8 yards per play and 334 total yards.  However, the best play for the defense came late in the game.  On an Indiana drive during the fourth quarter with a chance to tie the score at 27, Ohio State's Travis Howard intercepted a Tre Roberson pass and set up the game, icing touchdown.

It is becoming harder and harder to argue with what Ohio State has been able to accomplish on offense since the team hit rock-bottom in early October.  Miller is still spotty at best as a passer, but with the return of Herron to the backfield (Herron now has three straight 100-yard games) the Buckeyes have shown little to no need for a pass game.  

Next week's game against Purdue should be more of the same. Can Ohio State run successfully against the stout front seven of Penn State?  Does it matter if Penn State can't score itself?  Can Michigan move the ball on this defense?  Can Ohio State move the ball against Michigan's?

The answers may well decide who goes to Indianapolis in December.

Next Week: at Purdue

1. Penn State 8-1, 5-0 (3)

Last Week: Bye

Penn State is the first team to move up significantly after a bye week, but thanks to the rest of the conference's heavy hitters taking either all or most of the day off, Penn State moves into the top spot by default.

Default.  The two sweetest syllables in the English language for Penn State fans.  De-fault, de-fault.

How long does this ride at the top last?  That all depends on how much improvement the offense can muster after the bye week.  Penn State's defense has been consistently one of the best in the conference and looks capable of holding each of the remaining teams on the schedule to relatively low point totals.  Can Penn State score enough for the defense to matter?

The fate of Penn State's season rests in the hands of Matt McGloin.

Be afraid, be very afraid.

Week: vs. Nebraska