Twins Crystal Ball: What to Watch in Minnesota

It's a week into the MLB season, and there are probably over a dozen Twins topics that warrant discussion. 

Johan Santana is having his best April ever.  Justin Morneau has two homers and a .353 batting average.  The Twins starting rotation looks surprisingly strong, with three quality starts in five games.  The Twins bats have been up and down, but that hasn't kept them from winning games.

Too bad it's too early to start making judgments. 

The same goes for the standings: The teams are going to be bouncing around for some time yet—and though the games at the beginning of the year have the same value as the games at the end, it's way too early to be doing much besides looking into crystal balls and consulting Tarot cards.

If you hear anyone start talking about numbers at this point in the season—be he a mainstream columnist or a new media blogger—all I can tell you to do is stop listening.  There just hasn't been enough time.  Stats need a realistic sample size to be relevant.  Justin Morneau is on pace to hit 82 home runs this year.  That'd be a record—but it's meaningless to start extrapolating now.  About the only conclusion to be drawn, in fact, is that the Washington Nationals are really, really bad.

Instead of making predictions, we should be looking for stuff to look for.  In that spirit, here are five things Twins fans should keep an eye on in the next few weeks:

1) Whether Pat Neshek consistently finds the strike zone and starts striking out left-handed hitters with his new changeup. 

Neshek has struggled to get ahead of hitters, and the righty needs to start sharpening his game if he wants to avoid that dreaded sophomore-year gremlin.

2) How well the Piranhas hit. 

The Twins lineup is a strange mix of sluggers and small-ballers, with the latter led by a group of players White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen dubbed the "Piranhas" for their ability to nibble away at the opposition.  Last year, the Piranhas as a group hit nearly .300.  This season, they're hitting .136 (7-52). 

3) If Scott Ullger improves as the Twins third base coach. 

Last season, there appeared to be a power struggle between Ullger and Twins baserunners.  It started with Ullger's overcautiousness, which led many of the faster Twins to make their own decisions about when to run and when to hold up. The problem was never really resolved—and it looks to be an issue again this year. So far, Ullger has gotten Justin Morneau gunned down at the plate by a mile and needlessly held Joe Mauer when Mauer could have walked in for an insurance run against the Orioles.  The headaches continued when Michael Cuddyer was doubled-up for forgetting to tag on a routine sacrifice fly; Cuddyer apparently thought there were two outs.  How much of the fault lies with Ullger is a matter for speculation—but it's a sure bet that stop signs and green lights will be high on the Twins watch-list well into the summer.

4) Whether the Twins or the Angels have the best bullpen in baseball.

5) If Ramon Ortiz, Carlos Silva, and Sidney Ponson can find a time portal and pitch like they did three years ago. 

If they do, the Twins are going to be an unstoppable force in the Central Division. Minnesota pitching coach Rick Anderson has done a commendable job fooling the fairy godmother and keeping these rotten pumpkins from reverting to their former selves—but one can only guess when the clock is going to strike midnight on Anderson's little miracle...