College Football Predictions: Forecasting a BCS Playoff

Everyone is talking about it. Everyone wants it. The BCS is even pushing for it in their own convoluted, computer-generated kind of way.

There are currently six undefeated teams in college football—LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Boise State, Stanford and Houston. After this weekend, when LSU and Alabama play one another, there will be five. Then what?

What if all five of those teams remain undefeated? Who will play in the BCS Championship game?

Why is the BCS system flawed? Because there could be three teams in college football who have won every single game they have played during the season, yet would be told to be content with playing in a major bowl. These teams would not even get a chance to prove themselves against the squads computers peg as the nation's best.

So what is the solution? A playoff.

It could be as simple as taking the top eight BCS teams (because it is very doubtful the BCS will relinquish its hold on college football anytime soon) and putting them in a bracket. Four games in the first round, two in the second, and then a real championship game. (For argument’s sake, I will take the current top eight teams in the BCS Poll).

What would happen if we did just that? Let’s find out. 

First Round

First, the games must be set and the bracket fully formed. There is a reason NCAA Basketball televises Selection Sunday—people love filling out brackets.

The No. 1 team in the country—LSU—will be matched up with the No. 8 team—Oregon. 

On the same side of the bracket (the left side, if you will), the No. 4 team—Stanford—will play the No. 5 team—Boise State.

Moving over to the right side of the bracket, Oklahoma State—the No. 3 team in the country—will face Arkansas—the No. 7 team.

Also on the right side, the No. 2 team—Alabama—takes on the No. 6 team—Oklahoma.

Technically, on the right side of the bracket, Alabama should play Arkansas and Oklahoma State would face Oklahoma. Since both of those matchups will already happen over the course of the season, it makes more sense to split them up. 

Now we’ll move to the fun part—the games.

Round 1: No. 1 LSU vs. No. 8 Oregon

Unfortunately, these two teams have already played each other. Fortunately for the new BCS Playoff, that was the first game of the season. A lot has changed since then. And keep in mind, that game was a pretty exciting season opener.

The LSU Tigers are not a fancy offensive team. They pound the ball inside with their running game and have mastered the two-quarterback system. Having two signal callers has not bothered the Tigers because they are not expected to put up gaudy statistics. LSU’s quarterback must simply manage the game, make easy throws and move the team downfield, no matter how long it takes.

Where the Tigers excel is on defense. Tyrann Mathieu’s play has prompted fans to begin a Heisman campaign for their star cornerback. The defense is allowing just 11.5 points per game.

LSU plays a style of defense similar to their offensive style—bruising, physical and designed to wear down the opposition. 

The Oregon Ducks are known for their speed. Darron Thomas, LaMichael James, and the rest of the offense simply run around, through or past defenses. Oregon is averaging 47.5 points per game.

A classic offense vs. defense matchup. What’s not to like in Round One?

My prediction—defense always wins. James and backfield mate Kenjon Barner will get frustrated by LSU’s swarming defense. Thomas will not be able to find passing lanes. The Ducks will make costly mistakes and won’t be able to contain LSU’s offense.

LSU will win this game and move on to Round Two.

Round 1: No. 4 Stanford vs. No. 5 Boise State

The Stanford Cardinal and the Boise State Broncos are two very similar teams. They both rely on a star quarterback, solid rushing and good defense. 

Stanford is unquestionably led by Andrew Luck. When you have entire NFL franchises competing to lose the most games (allegedly) in order to draft one player, he must be special. 

Luck has not disappointed this season. He is completing over 70 percent of his passes for 23 touchdowns and just four interceptions. Stanford is averaging almost 50 points a game.

Boise State has very similar strengths. Kellen Moore leads an attack that averages 43 points per game. Moore has thrown 122 touchdown passes in his career, fourth all-time in the NCAA.

Both teams’ defenses excel as well. However, it should be noted that neither squad has played very tough competition thus far, perhaps inflating their stats.

My prediction—Boise State gets up for tough games. A BCS Playoff would be another chance to prove the doubters wrong and record a win against a talented team. Stanford has good playmakers, but to beat the Broncos, they would have to control the clock and run the football. The problem is, the Cardinal cannot afford to keep the ball out of Andrew Luck’s hands for too long. Boise State will beat Stanford in an offensive showdown behind 47 touchdown passes combined between Moore and Luck.  

Boise State advances.

Round 1: No. 3 Oklahoma State vs. No. 7 Arkansas

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have one of the best quarterback-to-receiver combinations in the country with Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon. Blackmon already has 10 touchdowns on the season. Weeden has thrown for 22.

The Arkansas Razorbacks also have a pretty good quarterback themselves in Tyler Wilson. He has only thrown three interceptions this season while throwing for over 2,000 yards. 

While Arkansas has beaten the teams it was supposed to this season, the Razorbacks crumbled in the first true test they faced, losing 38-14 to Alabama. Since then, Arkansas has made it a habit of falling behind in games before rallying to win late.

Oklahoma State has been berated all season for their defense; however, they are leading the nation with 17 interceptions. The Cowboys have also looked very impressive in wins against good teams such as Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M and Baylor.

My prediction—Arkansas’ problems in the beginnings of games will come back to haunt them. Oklahoma State will hold its own against the Razorbacks’ talented passing attack and Blackmon will eat up Arkansas’ secondary. Oklahoma State wins this game to prove they are more than just a team that piles up yardage and makes jaw-dropping plays.

Victory goes to Oklahoma State.

Round 1: No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 6 Oklahoma

The Alabama Crimson Tide might be the best team in the country. Not only do they have the best defense in the country, allowing less than seven points per game, but they team also boast the Heisman Trophy favorite in running back Trent Richardson, who is 11 yards away from 1,000 already this season.

Alabama has simply shut down all its opponents this season. Their defense is too talented and Richardson is too dynamic to be denied.

The Oklahoma Sooners responded to their first loss of the season by pasting Kansas State 58-17 in Manhattan. They have another Heisman hopeful in quarterback Landry Jones, who has thrown for over 3,000 yards and 26 touchdowns.

The Sooners do not have a bad defense, either. However, they are vulnerable to giving up big plays, as Texas Tech can attest to.

My prediction—Alabama will be far too much for Oklahoma to handle. Jones will not be able to get in a rhythm against an Alabama passing defense that is ranked second in the country. Richardson will run right through the Sooners’ defense.

Alabama, welcome to Round Two.

Round 2: No. 1 LSU vs. No. 5 Boise State

As much as it pains me to write this, I don’t think the Boise State Broncos can win this game.

The LSU Tigers’ defense is simply too tough. Kellen Moore’s receivers will not be open the way they are against Western Athletic Conference teams. Moore is a very good quarterback, but LSU’s defense is better. The Broncos have too many young receivers who are not ready to catch balls with an SEC secondary lurking right behind them.

LSU will also be able to take advantage of a Boise State defense that has spent most of the season playing against opponents who sometimes forget what the end zone looks like. The Broncos will eventually wear down and LSU will start making big plays. 

My prediction—as badly as I want Boise State to run the table, LSU will simply be too much to handle.

The Tigers advance to the BCS Playoff Championship Game.

Round 2: No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State

The Oklahoma State Cowboys’ bread-and-butter combination of Brandon Weeden to Justin Blackmon will have finally met its match. Weeden and Blackmon have been carving up secondaries all season. They will not have the same luck against the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Alabama is allowing just 135 yards per game passing, good for second in the country. Everyone on the planet knows how good Blackmon is. Expect the Crimson Tide secondary to have his routes tattooed on their arms come game day.

Oklahoma State is giving up 185 yards rushing per game. Trent Richardson is probably salivating just looking at that number. Alabama could run the ball every play of the game and still not be stopped.

My prediction—Alabama all the way. Oklahoma State’s weaknesses play to the Crimson Tide’s strengths. The game would be worth it just to see Blackmon make at least one jump-out-of-your seat, replay-at-least-five-times, text-everyone-you-know-type-of-play.

Alabama is going to the 'ship.

BCS Championship Game: No. 1 LSU vs. No. 2 Alabama

I promise I didn’t do this on purpose. When I began my bracket, I really thought I would have more upsets and a very different championship.

What can I say, though? Things just didn’t turn out that way.

But therein lies the beauty of a playoff. We just don’t know! Trent Richardson could finally see a defense he didn’t like. Boise State could completely dismantle LSU’s secondary simply because they want to prove the entire world wrong. These twists are what make playoffs so great and it is why college football needs to get its act together and start one.

There are a few problems with this system, mostly that major conferences like the SEC and Big 12 are overrepresented. I would like to see a team like Clemson or Michigan State take a shot at some of these teams. However, the top eight teams are the same in the BCS, AP, USA Today and ESPN Polls, so there would have to be another alternative.

But wouldn’t these problems be more interesting to solve than the ones we have now?

I hate spending my December and January arguing about why mid-major teams deserve a chance to play in BCS bowls. I hate putting asterisks next to National Champions (remember 2003?). I hate always asking, "What if?"

My prediction for the first annual BCS Playoff Championship Game? Let me get back to you. Say, Saturday? Around 11:30?