BCS Bowl Projections 2012: Who's Set to Stick Atop BCS Standings?

With a few exceptions, teams who end up in the top 12 of the final BCS rankings are eligible for a BCS bowl selection.

While winning a conference championship in a BCS Automatic Qualifying conference is the simplest way to earn a bid, there are a number of teams hoping they can find their way into a coveted BCS slot via the at-large process.

So which teams are likely to remain in the top 12 or at the top of their conference until Dec. 4? Who will be sticking around to earn a BCS bowl berth at the end of the season?

Here are our picks...

No. 17 Michigan State

After the Spartans loss at Nebraska this week, things look a little bleaker for the Green and White.

But the 6-2 Spartans have just one loss in conference, along with a few other teams in the Legends Division. While Michigan State now needs a little help to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, it looks as if the most difficult part of the Spartans' schedule is in the rear-view mirror.

Any loss by Nebraska would give MSU the nod for a trip to Indy (as MSU holds the head-to-head tie-breaker against Michigan, the division's other one-loss team).

No. 16 Penn State

The Nittany Lions are a perfect 5-0 in Big Ten play (the only undefeated teams left in the conference), and their 8-1 record's only blemish is to current No. 2, Alabama.

Penn State still isn't getting much BCS love, though. The problem is the Lions haven't reached the meat of their Big Ten schedule yet.

Moving forward, Penn State has games against Nebraska, Ohio State and Wisconsin. At this point, even a single loss would still guarantee JoePa and crew a trip tp the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game.

Penn State may not be flashy, and that's why they're not garnering much attention. A win over current No. 9 Nebraska will likely change all that. It could also set up a Big Ten Championship rivalry game with two trophies on the line: the Big Ten Championship Trophy and the Land Grant Trophy, currently held by Michigan State.

No. 13 Houston

The Cougars are unsurprisingly undefeated with an 8-0 record.

Why is their perfect mark through eight games unsurprising and unremarkable? Put simply, Houston has a schedule full of cream puffs that would make even a program like Boise State blush.

The signature win for Houston this season was a narrow four-point squeaker against 4-4 UCLA—not exactly an impressive win against a mediocre-at-best Bruins team.

There's only one game left on Houston's schedule that will hold any interest for anyone outside of the two fanbases: the Nov. 25 regular-season-ending showdown at 5-3 (4-0) Tulsa.

Still, Houston should easily blow through the rest of their sorry excuse for a schedule. Unfortunately for the Cougars, a BCS bowl still isn't likely this season. The BCS only accepts a non-AQ program if they're ranked in the top 12 at the end of the year.

While Houston most likely will meet that criteria, the problem is that the BCS accepts only one non-AQ program—the highest-ranked program. In this case, that means Boise State.

Unless the unthinkable happens, it will be the Broncos—not the Cougars—getting the BCS attention again this season.

No. 8 Oregon

For people who love records, taking a quick look at Oregon's list of accomplishments over the past season-and-a-half would be a fun read.

Not only does Oregon beat most of their opponents, they beat them with more than enough room to spare. In fact, if you look at Oregon's margin of victory at home, no program since reliable records exist has beaten as many teams by as many points—ever.

The program for the Ducks is that pesky week one loss to now No. 1 LSU.

No matter. The Ducks still hold their own destiny in their hands, and the looming Nov. 12 Pac-12 North showdown at Stanford will likely decide who will play in the Pac-12 Championship Game as the Pac-12 North champ.

Even a loss to a rising Cardinal team might not drop Oregon out of the top 12, leaving the door open for an at-large BCS berth.

No. 6 Oklahoma

The Sooners' season took an abrupt left turn with a shocking let-down against visiting Texas Tech last week. Still, Oklahoma seems to get back to work with a dismantling of No. 14 and previously undefeated Kansas State in Manhattan on Saturday.

As crazy as it may seem, the Sooners can still determine the outcome of the Big 12 championship race, as they now sit just one game behind Oklahoma State, with the Bedlam game still to come on Dec. 3. Another victory over the Cowboys would mean a Big 12 title and another trip to the BCS.

No. 5 Boise State

The Broncos experienced the first inkling of impending BCS doom as they fell in the rankings this week without playing a game.

Stanford leapfrogged Boise State on the “strength” of beating USC in triple overtime on Saturday as the Broncos were idle. As the season wears on, the question remains about Boise State's weak conference schedule, and whether the Broncos will receive enough human love to overcome weakness in the computer rankings.

Chances are, no. But the silver lining (that Boise State fans don't exactly see as a consolation any more these days) is that BSU will still be easily in the top 12, and they'll be the top-ranked non-AQ program, giving them an automatic berth to the BCS yet again.

No. 4 Stanford

The Cardinal are the only undefeated team in the Pac-12, and just one of three teams ranked in the BCS—far behind the six of the SEC or five of the Big Ten.

Still, like the Oregon Ducks, the Cardinal hold their fate in their own hands. Additionally, a loss to the Ducks is unlikely to drop the Cardinal from the top 12, and with the way Stanford has been playing this season, an at-large BCS berth seems likely.

No. 3 Oklahoma State

If there's one team in the country that the computers absolutely love this year, it's easily Oklahoma State.

The Cowboys rank as the No. 1 team in five of the six computer polls, and they rank second in the sixth poll. No other team—not even LSU or Alabama—have that kind of computer consistency.

The road ahead for the Cowboys does have some potential bumps, though. In addition to the Dec. 3 clash with Oklahoma, there's the upcoming date with Kansas State this weekend, followed by a trip to dangerous Texas Tech.

If the Cowboys win out, you can pretty much guarantee a trip to New Orleans on Jan. 9. If Oklahoma State doesn't win out, Cowboys fans shouldn't worry too much. A BCS trip is still virtually guaranteed if only on the strength of the computer love the Pokes seem to be getting this season.

No.1 LSU and No. 2 Alabama

The latest installment of the “Game of the Century” will be played this weekend as No. 1 LSU travels to take on No. 2 Alabama in Tuscaloosa.

Everybody who's anybody will be watching this game, and it's sure to be a dandy. About the only thing missing from the run-up to this “game to end all games” is a old-time Keith Jackson “Whoa, Nelly!”

The winner of this game will unquestionably be the top-ranked team in the nation, and that selection will likely be unanimous: the coaches poll, the AP poll, the Harris poll, the BCS, even the B/R Top 25 will all have the winner of this game firmly entrenched at No. 1.

The real question is about the loser. Where will they end up? Does a loss to the No. 1 or No. 2 team in the country really hurt that much? Should it?

All good questions that voters and computers will have to answer between Saturday night and Sunday morning.

The simple answer is that the loser, should they win out, will still be guaranteed a BCS trip. The SEC is a major draw for the BCS, and it seems almost insane to consider that there won't be two BCS trips for the SEC this season

There are some scenarios, however, for real BCS mayhem with this game. While Alabama has already played, and beaten Arkansas, LSU will face the Razorbacks on Nov. 26. An LSU victory this weekend combined with an Arkansas win on Nov. 26 could make for some real fun in the rankings.

There's also the little matter of the SEC Championship Game. While the SEC-East is generally viewed as the JV division of the conference, it's not completely out of the realm of possibility that South Carolina or Georgia shocks the world.

In the end, the SEC will have two teams in the BCS this season. Which two teams, and in which two games, however, is yet to be determined.