Big Ten Power Rankings: What We Learned in Week 9

The Big Ten conference schedule is beginning to look like a cage fight between a bunch of heavy hitters with glass jaws.  Every team in the conference except Indiana has had at least one great day and one terrible day.

The old conference favorite, Wisconsin, is an offensive powerhouse that has inconsistency issues and a penchant for crippling special teams mistakes.

The next conference favorite, Michigan State, is a defensive powerhouse with a non-existent run game and a habit of collapsing on the road.

Now there are contenders with great defenses and quarterback problems (Ohio State, Penn State), alongside contenders with dynamic quarterbacks capable of meltdowns (Michigan, Nebraska).  Then there are contenders that lose to Minnesota.

Only one thing is for sure: Every team is bruised but determined, and while only seven teams are even within shouting distance of the Big Ten championship game, it is becoming more and more obvious that anything is possible at any time.

It isn't always great football, but it makes for one helluva shakeup in the power rankings from week to week.

Let's see who ended up on the mat this weekend, and who survived this round.

12. Iowa 5-3 (2-2) (7)

Last Week: Lost to Minnesota, 22-21

One day this week an Iowa fan is going to read this power-ranking list and vehemently object to my placing Iowa last.  He/she will argue the Hawkeyes have played very well at times this season and have simply slipped up during rivalry games, but even an embarrassing loss to a bad, bad team isn't reason to sell the farm.

My response?  Your team lost to Minnesota.  Take your medicine.

It is hard to fathom how Iowa lost this one when you look at the stat sheet.  The Hawkeyes out-gained Minnesota by almost 100 yards and only punted once.  Iowa found it so easy to control the first three quarters because of an absolutely monster performance from Marcus Coker.  The Iowa running back ran for 252 yards and two touchdowns on 32 carries, helping Iowa gain 16 of the team's 22 first downs on the ground.  James Vandenberg was serviceable for most of the day, completing two-thirds of his 24 pass attempts for 178 yards and a touchdown.

In fact, a minute into the fourth quarter it was safe to say that the game was pretty much all Iowa.  The Hawkeye offense might as well have went home at that point.  However, what the stat sheet doesn't tell you about is the missed opportunities.  The Hawkeyes took four trips into Minnesota territory to open the game before scoring any points.  Iowa had the opportunity to build a more stable lead.

Instead, in the beginning of the fourth quarter Minnesota took the ball 80 yards for a touchdown, recovered an onside kick and went another 60 yards for a second touchdown to take the lead.  Iowa got the ball for the first time in the fourth quarter with just under three minutes remaining.  Three incompletions and a short scramble later, Minnesota had the ball back and went into a formation the team hasn't seen much of on its own side of the ball this year: the victory formation.

It is hard to overstate just how disheartening and devastating this loss is for Iowa.  

Small picture: This was a game in which the Iowa offense was firmly in control and the defense was effectively holding Minnesota from gaining any momentum for three quarters, only to squander an 11-point lead.  

Big picture: Iowa pissed away a chance to set itself up in prime position to win the Legend's Division with back-to-back home games against fellow one-loss division foes Michigan and Michigan State coming next.  

However, the worst thing for Iowa fans?  This is the second straight loss to Minnesota, a team that has been so bad so far this year that many considered it one of the worst Big Ten teams of all time.

Rock Bottoms-ville: population, Iowa.

It isn't all doom and gloom.  Despite what is unquestionably the biggest Big Ten upset of the season, Iowa still has two straight home games against the upper crust of the Legends Division—both of which are far from complete teams—to right the ship and jump back into the thick of the conference title hunt.

Can Iowa do it?  As evidenced last Saturday in TCF Bank Stadium, anything's possible.

Next Week: vs. Michigan

11. Indiana 1-8 (0-5) (11)

Last Week: Lost to Northwestern, 59-38

Indiana finally gave us the answer to the age-old question: What do you get when you start seven freshmen on defense against even a mediocre BCS conference opponent?

Blown the hell out.

The ease with which Northwestern moved the ball on the hapless Indiana defense Saturday is staggering.  The Wildcats gained almost eight yards per play while running the ball for better than 5.5 yards per carry and throwing for more than 13 yards per attempt.  Northwestern didn't punt until the fourth quarter—the only possession other than a fumble and mercy kneel-downs to end each half that didn't go for scores—and only faced 10 third-down situations, six of which were converted.  

Backup Northwestern quarterback threw three passes and two (TWO!) of them went for touchdowns (he ended the game with a passer rating of 393).  Receiver Drake Dunsmore caught seven passes, four of which ended in the end zone.

Indiana's offense did its best to keep pace with Northwestern's 616 yards of offense, but ultimately fell short.  Tre Roberson continued his strong play with 169 yards on 26 attempts and a touchdown and an interception.  Roberson was even more impressive on the ground with 121 yards and a score.  Also impressive on the ground was Stephen Houston, who ran for 151 yards and two touchdowns.  The Hoosiers were so good running the ball that the teams yards per carry average matched its yards per pass attempt: 6.5.

However, a slow start in the first quarter that included two punts and an interception ultimately put Indiana too far behind.

Now the Hoosiers have to deal with the fact that they are the only team in the Big Ten without a conference win and could end the season as the only one-loss Big Ten outfit.  New coach Kevin Wilson desperately needs something positive over the last month of the season—much like Minnesota got this week—to help build momentum going into year two.

Unfortunately, the best chance at that won't be until the final week of the season against Purdue.

Next Week: at Ohio State

10. Minnesota 2-6 (1-3) (12)

Last Week: Beat Iowa, 22-21 

When Minnesota's athletic department signed Jerry Kill to a contract extension earlier this week, it was on little more than a wing and a prayer.  If Saturday's game is any indication of what could be in store, Minnesota made a good investment.

Despite struggling through three quarters heavy on punts (five) and turnovers (one fumble) but light on scoring (one touchdown and one field goal), Kill's team absolutely took over when the game mattered most and controlled the ball for over 13 of the game's final 15 minutes while putting together 139 yards of offense and two touchdowns.

MarQueis Gray put together one of his best days as a quarterback yet, completing 11 of 17 passes for 193 yards and a touchdown while completely avoiding sacks and turnovers and adding 62 yards and a touchdown on the ground.  Duane Bennett also added a rushing touchdown to go along with his 97 yards, and receiver Devin Crawford-Tufts made both his catches count on the way to 100 yards on the day.

However, a great deal of credit belongs to the Minnesota defense.  While the run defense was absolutely gashed by Marcus Coker (who ran for 252 on 7.8 yards per carry), the defense came up big when it mattered most, holding Iowa scoreless on the first four possessions that all ended in Minnesota territory, and getting a stop on Iowa's only fourth-quarter possession to seal the one point win.  On top of that, Minnesota was able to sack James Vandenberg three times in the game after having gotten just five sacks in the previous seven games.

As devastating as this loss is for Iowa, it is equally important for Minnesota.  This is a team that has had to deal with its first-year coach experiencing seizures on the sideline, three straight uncompetitive Big Ten losses, a loss to an FCS team and a team from New Mexico*, all amid speculation that this might be the worst Big Ten team of all time.  

Nobody expected Jerry Kill to shock the world his first season, but the depths to which this program has sunk in year one A.B (after Brewster) are astonishing and sad.  To get a win in a rivalry game against an opponent that was considered a threat to win the Legends Division is a huge positive going forward.

Now the only question is, can Minnesota do it again before the end of the season?

My gut still say no, but that no isn't nearly as emphatic this time.

Next Week: at Michigan State

*(code for: universally bad loss)

9. Illinois 6-3 (2-3) (9)

Last Week: Lost to Penn State 10-7

If there is a hell, and some poor Illinois fan ends up there, I would bet dollars to donuts that it is just continuous game tape of Ron Zook coaching the Illini in a snowstorm.  Although to be fair, that might be a fate worse than hell.

The one thing letting Illinois fans know Saturday wasn't a trip across the river Styx?  The unforgiving cold.  And all the punts.  Even the devil knows you go for it near midfield when Matt McGloin is leading the other offense.  

Illinois' first quarter consisted of five three-and-outs.  To break up the monotony in the second quarter the Illini began to substitute in turnovers.  In the end there was one five-minute window of good feeling for Illinois fans — a 64-yard touchdown drive in the third quarter — that ended up giving way to more punts and turnovers.

The Illinois offense gained just 3.9 yards per play, barely more than the 3.8 yards per pass attempt that Nathan Scheelhaase and Reilly O'Toole combined for — to say nothing of Tim Russell, whose one pass attempt was intercepted.  

On the ground Scheelhaase and Jason Ford both slogged their way to more than 90 yards rushing, but the rest of the team combined for four yards on 12 attempts. However, in a game against a very good Penn State defense in weather that might make a Green Bay Packer fan put on a light jacket, the fact that Illinois was able to move the ball at all while only turning it over three times isn't completely terrible (Is it?  Yeah, it probably is).

That same disclaimer applies to the other side of the ball.  Was Illinois great on defense or was Illinois lucky to be matched up against a bad Penn State offense in terrible conditions?  Probably more the latter than the former.  As it was, Penn State only gained three yards per play, converted three of 14 third down attempts and ended the day with 208 yards of total offense.  

Even Ron Zook has to take his hat off to that kind of offensive incompetence, although Penn State turned it on when it needed to for back to back scoring drives in the fourth quarter.

That Illinois was a last second missed field goal away from tying this game is a testament to just how many chances to win Illinois squandered along the way, and how ugly this game was for everyone involved.

This week Illinois gets a bye before back to back home games against Michigan and Wisconsin.  If the Illini don't figure something out soon, it will be hard to convince any Illini fan that they aren't already in hell.  

Next Week: bye

8. Northwestern 3-5 (1-4) (10)

Last Week: Beat Indiana, 59-38

How do you cure the second-half collapse blues?  Play Indiana.

Had Northwestern scored just once after halftime the Wildcats would have still had enough to outlast Indiana in a game long on offense and short on anything resembling defensive competency.

The Northwestern offensive numbers look like something a kid puts up on his PS3 when the difficulty is set to Junior Varsity.  Dan Persa was 16-of-20 for 263 yards and three touchdowns and 41 rush yards.  Backup quarterback/running back/do-everything player Kain Colter was 2-of-3 passing for 38 yards and two touchdowns, while running for 38 more yards and catching six passes for 115 yards and a touchdown.  Drake Dunsmore caught the other four touchdowns on seven receptions for 114 yards.  Jacob Schmidt ran for 108 yards and two touchdowns as well.

In fact, the only thing Northwestern didn't do was play anything resembling defense.  Northwestern continued its trend of completely failing in one aspect of the defensive game-plan, this time giving up 319 yards and 6.5 yards per carry on the ground to an Indiana team that came into the game averaging just 144 yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry.

Don't get confused, however—this win merely stops the bleeding on what has been a disastrous 2011 season for Northwestern.  Prior to this merciless beating of a helpless Indiana team the Wildcats had lost five games in a row and all but played themselves out of a bowl game.  While wins against Rice and Minnesota are still to be expected, Northwestern will need to pull a major upset against either Nebraska or Michigan State if Pat Fitzgerald's squad wants to go bowling this year.

I'm not holding my breath.

Next Week: at Nebraska

7. Purdue 4-4 (2-2) (8)

Last Week: Lost to Michigan, 36-14

Purdue scored a touchdown on the first drive of the game and intercepted two Michigan passes in back-to-back drives to end the first quarter.  If you were a Purdue fan you would have been wise beyond your years to turn the game off then and try to enjoy the rest of your Saturday.  Do some projects around the house or spend time with your family.  

Nothing else even remotely good happened until a meaningless touchdown with seconds remaining in the game.  In between the two scores Michigan ran up 36 unanswered points and 535 yards.

The first offensive drive was a thing of beauty, capped by the longest pass play Michigan had allowed all season, but it was followed by two three-and-outs and a safety.  From there the Purdue offense couldn't finish drives.  The Boilermakers converted just three of 12 third-down attempts, and despite averaging 195 yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry, Purdue managed only 89 yards rushing on 3.1 yards per carry—nearly half of that came on a 41-yard Caleb TerBush run on the final drive of the game.  

TerBush and Robert Marve split time at quarterback despite TerBush being better on the day (9/13, 156 yards, 1 TD, 1 sack compared to 8/14, 66 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 2 sacks).  Not one Purdue running back gained over 23 yards.

Defensively Purdue was even worse.  After forcing two Wolverine turnovers in the first quarter—one a great play by by Joe Holland to undercut an underneath throw by Denard Robinson and the other a horrible misread by backup quarterback Devin Gardner—Michigan was able to score on five of its next six drives.  Purdue gave up a whopping 339 yards rushing to Michigan at 6.4 yards per carry, and despite a shaky start, Robinson finished the day completing nine of his 14 passes for 170 yards against a secondary that spent more time trying to help out in the run game.

A week after a promising win against Illinois things look like they could be on the down slide.  Games against Wisconsin and Ohio State are both worrisome after giving up over 300 yards to Michigan on the ground.  Even a home date with Iowa could be daunting, assuming the Hawkeyes move the ball like the team has shown it is capable of doing.  The only sure win seems to be Indiana in the final week, but that is a rivalry game in Bloomington.  Purdue is very much capable of going bowling, but after a loss in Ann Arbor there is no more margin for error. 

Next Week: at Wisconsin

6. Wisconsin 6-2 (2-2) (2)

Last Week: Lost to Ohio State, 33-29

Wisconsin just can't catch a break.

A week after losing to Michigan State on a Hail Mary throw as time expired, Wisconsin lost to Ohio State on a Braxton Miller touchdown pass with under a minute remaining.

The story of the night was not through the air, however.  It was what happened on the ground.  Wisconsin was held to a season-low 104 yards rushing, 90 of those yards coming from Montee Ball, as the Badgers averaged just 3.7 yards per carry.  Wisconsin's inability to run the ball effectively is evidenced in first down numbers.  Wisconsin gained only four first downs on the ground compared to 11 through the air.

This lack of rushing production put the onus on Russell Wilson, who delivered in a big way.  Wilson was 20 of 33 for 253 yards and three touchdowns, including the two 65-plus yard scoring drives he led with under five minutes remaining to take the lead.

However, mistakes once again crippled the Badgers chances.  For the second straight week a blocked Wisconsin punt led to a touchdown for the other team and a huge momentum swing after Ohio State had already scored on a long drive directly beforehand.  Then, after taking the lead with under a minute and a half remaining in the game, Wisconsin allowed Ohio State to return the ball to midfield and set up prime field position for the winning touchdown.

Defensively the Badgers went from burned by the pass against Michigan State to burned by the run against Ohio State.  The Buckeyes had a 160-yard rusher (Dan Herron) and a 98-yard rusher (Miller), both of whom ran for a combined five yards per carry.

Now Wisconsin must adjust to a new reality in the Big Ten, one that all but excludes the Badgers from Big Ten title contention just weeks after Wisconsin was more concerned with BCS title contention. Wisconsin is now third in line behind Penn State and Ohio State for a chance at the Leaders Division title.  Just another disappointing year in cheeseland.

Next Week: vs. Purdue

5. Michigan State 6-2 (3-1) (1)

Last Week: Lost to Nebraska, 24-3

Michigan State had a chance to make a statement win and claim a commanding lead in the Legend's Division race.  Instead, the Spartans showed just how screwed up the Big Ten really is.

The Michigan State defense was once again strong in the game, only allowing two Nebraska scores in the first half because of short fields.  However, Michigan State's defense took one quarter off from its normal stout defense and that was all it took for Nebraska to pull away.  It wasn't ever easy for the Huskers, who took 57 carries to get 187 yards on the ground—just 3.3 yards per carry—while adding only 83 yards through the air.  

However, one thing did make it easier.  Michigan State once again had penalty problems (nine, for 90 yards) and Nebraska was able to get five of its 20 first downs from penalties.

The problems for Michigan State were on the other side of the ball.  The Spartans were only able to muster 187 yards of total offense and were held out of the end zone completely for the first time all year.

The most glaring difference between this week and the last few was Kirk Cousins' inability to find his receivers.  After torching Wisconsin for 290 yards and three touchdowns last week, Cousins was held to just 86 yards on a 40 percent completion rate while being sacked four times and intercepted once.  Cousins struggled all day dealing with tight, physical coverage on his receivers and constant pressure from the defensive line.  Cousins' struggles also hurt one of Michigan State's biggest playmakers; B.J. Cunningham was held without a catch for the game.

Things weren't much better on the ground.  LeVeon Bell was the most productive back with 58 yards on 4.8 yards per carry, but Edwin Baker once again held in check in a big game, only gaining 38 yards at 3.8 yards per carry.

This game once again opens up the Big Ten Legends Division race, but more importantly for Michigan State it is a sad reminder that this team is less the juggernaut it looked the past two weeks and more a talented but flawed and inconsistent team not yet ready to stake a claim to the title of Best in the Big Ten.  

This is the third straight Halloween weekend that the Spartans have lost in painfully disappointing fashion on the road.  Last year's lopsided loss to Iowa derailed Michigan State's undefeated season, and this year's loss to Nebraska could cost the Spartans a chance at the Big Ten title.

Next Week: vs. Minnesota

4. Michigan 7-1 (3-1) (5)

Last Week: Beat Purdue, 36-14

The bye week certainly looks like it had the desired effect on a Michigan team that was reeling from a beating at the hands of rival Michigan State.  After shaking off some early rust the team took control of the game and blew the doors off Purdue at home.

It was a complete effort that began with the offense.  Denard Robinson looked mostly sharp on the day—excluding a third-down throw underneath that was badly telegraphed and summarily picked off—and finished with nine completions on 14 attempts and 170 yards.  It wasn't a dominant day through the air, but Robinson was good enough to keep the chains moving and pick up a couple big gains.  

That was all the boost the running game needed as Michigan went off for 339 yards on 6.4 yards per carry.  Fitzgerald Toussaint led the way with 170 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries, the first Michigan running back to tally 20 carries in a game since Carlos Brown did it in 2009.  Robinson added 63 yards and a score, and Michael Shaw another 56 and a touchdown.

Defensively Michigan controlled the line of scrimmage and shut down Purdue's offense at the point of attack.  The Boilermakers were only able to muster 3.1 yards per carry against Michigan's defensive front while also giving up three sacks.

Most impressive were the big plays that Michigan made on defense.  After an interception gave Purdue the ball deep in its own territory, Mike Martin broke through the line on the first play for a sack in the end zone.  On the next drive cornerback Courtney Avery made a great play to intercept a tipped pass in Michigan territory on a drive that otherwise would have most likely ended in a field goal for Purdue.  Then in the beginning of the fourth quarter, with Purdue in position to score deep in Michigan's red zone, the Wolverines came up with a crucial fourth-down stop to get the ball back and essentially end any chance of a Purdue rally.

However, late October victories over Purdue don't mean much.  If Michigan really wants to prove that it has turned the corner from the disastrous Rich Rodriguez years, the Wolverines are going to need to pull out three or four wins over the next four weeks.  Iowa is a team that is vulnerable but has owned Michigan the last two years.  A loss to a collapsing Illinois team would be devastating.  Finally, a win against either Nebraska or (especially) Ohio State would be the kind of signature Big Ten victory that always eluded Rodriguez's teams.

Furthermore, with one Michigan State loss already, a Legends Division championship isn't yet off the table.  Not bad for year one under Hoke.  Time to see if he can ride out on the same positive wave he rode in on.

Next Week: at Iowa

3. Penn State 8-1 (5-0) (6)

Last Week: Beat Illinois, 10-7

Winning ugly is still winning.  That's good enough for Penn State.  Of all the ugly games this team has won this year, Saturday's snow bowl against Illinois might be the ugliest.

Going into the fourth quarter Penn State had just 121 yards of total offense and three turnovers, but thanks to a Illini fumble deep in their own territory, Penn State got on the board with a field goal.  From there Matt McGloin got one more shot and made it count with a 10-play, 80-yard touchdown drive late in the quarter.

The stats don't paint a pretty picture.  McGloin completed just 10 of his 25 attempts for 94 yards and one interception while getting sacked three times.  Rob Bolden played, which is about all you need to know to gauge just how hopeless the Penn State offense looked for most of the game.  Bolden, unsurprisingly, threw four incomplete passes and was sacked once leading to further confirmation that Matt McGloin's Rob Bolden voodoo doll has been the most effective part of Penn State's passing game this year.

Thankfully, Silas Redd continues to shoulder almost all the offensive load.  Against Illinois he ran for 139 yards on 29 carries and one touchdown.  His 4.8 yards per carry was more than a yard better than McGloin's average per pass attempt.

Defensively, again, it is hard to judge just what Penn State did to the Illinois offense, what the Illinois offense did to itself, and what cruel games Mother Nature played.  Regardless, Penn State's defense was good enough to keep Illinois from scoring more than a single third quarter touchdown.

Now, the question is, just how far can this Penn State team go?  The defense has taken all comers and played very well, and the offense has the knack for doing just enough to get this team over the hump.  Poke holes in the Nittany Lions resume, strength of schedule, or statistical profile all you want (and believe me, I want to), but the fact remains that this team is 8-1, undefeated in the conference, and two wins away from representing the Leaders Division in the first Big Ten championship game.  

With both Wisconsin and Ohio State now sitting at two conference losses, Penn State doesn't even have to win out (although with games against Nebraska, a markedly improved Ohio State team, and a still dangerous Wisconsin team getting two wins isn't a walk in the park).  It is getting harder and harder to come up with a reason why Penn State won't be playing for the Big Ten title in December.

Who knew?

Next Week: bye

2. Ohio State 5-3 (2-2) (4)

Last Week: Beat Wisconsin, 33-29

It was easy to hop off the Ohio State bandwagon early in the year as the losses piled up and the offense looked more and more lost in the woods.  Now who is betting against the Buckeyes?

After a shaky start to the season splitting time with Joe Bauserman, Braxton Miller has really come into his own the last month of the season.  The offense is playing into his strengths as a runner and athlete and not depending on him being a polished drop back passer.  In this new role he has thrived so far and is able to make enough big plays with his arm to keep things open for the running game.

The increased effectiveness of the running game has perhaps been the biggest change over the last month.  With the return of Dan Herron and Mike Adams, the Ohio State run game has found a way to create plays despite relying heavily on the run.

All the while the Buckeye defense has been the same strong unit it always is.  Ohio State held Wisconsin to its lowest offensive output of the season, and did so by bottling up the Wisconsin run game to less than half its per-game average coming into the season.

All of the sudden Ohio State owns the tiebreaker among two loss teams in the Leaders Division and is breathing down Penn State's neck for an invite to the first Big Ten conference championship game.

What a difference a month makes.

Next Week: vs. Indiana

1. Nebraska 7-1 (3-1) (3)

Last Week: Beat Michigan State, 24-3

It took eight games, but Nebraska is finally back where it thought it would be in 2011: in the driver's seat for the Legend's Division title.

A lopsided loss to Wisconsin and the emergence of the Michigan State defense seemed to signal that Nebraska was at most a second-tier Big Ten title contender.  The Husker defense had spent the season underperforming its lofty preseason expectations, but turned that around on Saturday to hold Michigan State to just 187 yards and one field goal.

The Nebraska pass defense, eighth in the conference in pass efficient defense and averaging 193 yards allowed, absolutely shut down Kirk Cousins and the Michigan State receivers.  Nebraska played tight coverage all over the field and got after Cousins constantly forcing four sacks and an interception.  Cousins ended the day with just 87 pass yards while completing just 40 percent of his passes.

The two teams weren't much different in terms of yardage through the air.  Taylor Martinez only threw for 83 yards, but did so on just 14 attempts and eight completions while adding a touchdown and an interception.The big difference was on the ground.  Rex Burkhead, as the kids say, "put the team on his back, dawg," en route to 127 yards and two touchdowns on the ground while carrying the ball 34 times, and another 29 yards and a touchdown receiving.  Burkhead dogged determination to pick up yards against a tough Michigan State defense ultimately kept Nebraska's inconsistent offense moving enough to be effective.

Now that Nebraska is at the front of the pack, the question is how well can the Huskers stay there? Nebraska's Big Ten welcome tour continues next week with a visit from Northwestern, only to ramp up with back to back road games in Happy Valley and Ann Arbor before hosting Iowa at home.  With Michigan State hot on its heels and staring down three games against the three worst Big Ten teams, Nebraska can't afford to trip up if it wants to win the Legends Division.

Next Week: vs. Northwestern