Tom Brady Report Card: Midseason Edition
As Tom Brady and the New England Patriots prepare for the halfway point of their schedule with the visit of the New York Giants, it's a good time to reflect, and hand Tom Brady his midterm report card.
The reigning league MVP has taken the Patriots to a 5-2 record, with impressive wins against the San Diego Chargers and New York Jets balanced by defeats to the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Brady started the season with a bang, throwing for an astronomical 940 yards in his first two outings, but the production has steadily declined since, falling back to merely "elite" levels with Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees on 2,361 yards (337 per game).
Clearly with such numbers, Brady is having a nice enough season, but how does it compare with his 2007 or 2010 vintages? Is he top of the class, or are there areas of his game that need improvement?
Let's take a look at his performance for the season in more detail.
Accuracy
1 of 6Brady has completed 67.6 percent of his passes this season, putting him on track for his second best season in that category behind his record-breaking year of 2007.
On the short to intermediate routes, there is nobody I would rather have at quarterback than Brady. That includes Aaron Rodgers and his 71.5 percent completion rate, though there is personal bias in that statement, forged over many years of watching Brady dissect defenses with a surgeon's precision.
Digs, outs, curls, comebacks, slants? Brady sets the gold standard, and his receivers thrive on his back shoulder placement, catching the ball in places only the intended target can reach. Revisit the Week 4 tape on Brady's throws to Wes Welker in Oakland for a masterclass in the art of accuracy.
Further down the field, however, the magic is waning.
Whether his teammates share the blame for this is open to debate, but Brady appears to struggle with deep passing plays, overthrowing, under-throwing, but never catching his receiver in stride.
There have been notable exceptions, such as Wes Welker's 73-yard grab between the Jets' Darrelle Revis and Eric Smith, or a 46-yard bomb to Matthew Slater in Week 1 versus the Dolphins.
ESPN Stats & Information have charted the decline of the deep ball, which culminated with just one passing play over 20 yards in the defeat to the Steelers last Sunday.
The trend is probably due to the strength of opposing defenses in recent weeks—the last three opponents were the Jets, Cowboys and Steelers—but given the overall production in the passing game, is more of an observation than a serious gripe right now.
Brady's throwing mechanics are simple, efficient and effective. Overall his arm is in good order and ought to keep the Patriots in playoff contention.
Grade: A-
Ball Security
2 of 6Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has been consistent in preaching the importance of the turnover battle down the years, so when Brady throws a pick, you can be sure he hears about it all week long in practice.
He's thrown eight of them so far, putting him on pace for 18 over a full season. That would be a career high by four. Brady is his own harshest critic, and those numbers will sting.
When he set the NFL record for the most consecutive pass attempts without an interception (358 in 2010), he led a charmed life. In a remarkable sequence that spanned 11 games, tipped balls fell harmlessly to the ground. Balls thrown at the chest of linebackers were met with surprise, rather than sure hands.
That luck has run out, and normal service has resumed.
Overall, he has protected the football very well, and the stats are skewed by the four-pick horror show against Buffalo in Week 3, which condemned the Patriots to their first defeat of the season.
Brady is a perfectionist, and will have spent much of the bye week mulling over his mistakes so far. This is definitely an area for improvement over the coming weeks, even if a number of interceptions can be blamed on poor fortune.
Grade: B
Leadership
3 of 6There's no question here. Brady makes those around him better through his deeds on the field.
You don't win three Super Bowl rings without holding yourself to the highest standards, and Brady demands the same from his teammates. The old adage that his favorite receiver is the "open" one is out of date. The correct answer is actually Welker, Branch and Gronkowski, and it is no coincidence that they possess the safest hands on the team.
Remaining cool under pressure has been a defining trait throughout Brady's career, and he showed every ounce of his experience in the comeback victory over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6, scoring on a two-minute drive in the fourth quarter to seal the game.
Clutch performances are a hallmark of a leader, but aside from the heroics versus Dallas, Brady has been average in situations where the game is on the line.
The sample size is small—partly because four of the Patriots' five wins have been relatively comfortable—but ESPN tracks his fourth quarter stats in close games (seven points or less), and the numbers are underwhelming.
Twenty-five completions in 41 attempts (61 percent), three touchdowns, three interceptions and a 78.1 passer rating? That's more Kevin Kolb than Tom Brady.
If it sounds like I'm being harsh, it's because I'm a fan, and knowing how fine the margins are in playoff football, I want the team to pull through in the games that really matter. Brady is the key component to postseason success.
Grade: B
Decision-Making
4 of 6Always a tough category to grade, decision-making is a combined function of play-calling from the offensive coordinator, and reads, audibles and adjustments by the quarterback.
One thing we can be sure of, is Brady's involvement in setting the protection at the line of scrimmage. Twenty-one quarterbacks have been sacked more than Brady (14 times) this season, which is testament in part to the efforts of his offensive line, but also to his ability to recognize blitz schemes, slide out of pressure and keep his poise in the pocket.
It never ceases to amaze me how much time Brady has when he drops back to pass. Because of this, we can see him work through his reads very clearly, going to his third or fourth option before delivering a strike.
Other than Aaron Rodgers and the injured Peyton Manning, I don't think there is a quarterback in the league that can execute a play-call as perfectly as Brady does. Ben Roethlisberger is the king of extending the play, but Brady gets it done, as intended, better than the rest.
Grade: A
Performances in Key Games
5 of 6You can make an argument that, in a 16-game schedule, all games are key, and there is little or no margin for error.
Whilst the cliche that any team can beat you on any given Sunday rings true, performances against elite opposition are the best indication of the state of a franchise.
Without contradicting his leadership grade from earlier, Brady has generally performed well against the best teams in the league.
His two most impressive shifts came against the Chargers in Week 2 and the Jets in Week 5. Brady threw for a combined 744 yards in those efforts, with neither game in doubt at any point.
In last Sunday's loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers however, he threw for just 198 yards. Ben Roethlisberger kept him off the field with a series of long scoring drives, converting at will on third down against what might be the poorest defense of the Belichick era.
New England loses games when their offense becomes one-dimensional. When their running game deserts them, teams can play man-coverage in sub-packages all day long, removing the deep ball and giving Brady fewer open receivers to play with.
Brady's effectiveness is clearly reduced when teams rush with four and drop seven—the New York Jets drew up the blueprint in the playoffs last season, and others have tried to emulate their strategy, with varying degrees of success.
That said, in such situations, his passing remains crisp and accurate. Brady still lays an egg or two—Buffalo fans will testify to that—but his overall form is impressive. Aaron Rodgers is currently playing at a level above him, which limits his grade, but there's a long way to go in the season.
Grade: B+
Overall Grade
6 of 6As amazing as the headline numbers have been, Brady's work over a seven-game span is just a notch below his very best.
Don't forget that he is still on track to break Dan Marino's single-season passing yards record, along with Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. But unlike Rodgers, there have been signs of his fallibility, most notably against Buffalo, and at times in the Dallas and Pittsburgh encounters.
On this basis, Brady won't be the league MVP this season, but there are nine games left to play, and in wintry conditions, his performances usually rise above his peers. Don't rule out an impressive finish to what has already been a solid year.
As one of the most fiercely competitive men in the NFL, expect Brady to improve as the season wears on.
Final grade: B+
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