College Football Week 9 Predictions: 5 Teams That Should Be on Upset Alert

Last weekend provided college football fans with wall-to-wall excitement.

Jubilation, heartbreak, exhilaration, dejection, euphoria, and sadness were felt on college campuses across the country in a roller coaster of emotions that is sure to be repeated in Week 9.

The number of unbeaten teams has dwindled to just five; a herd that is sure to be further culled in the coming weeks. Week 9 has some intriguing matchups, storied rivalries, and a whole new batch of incredible highlights waiting to happen.

With the regular season winding down, teams that have been delaying an inevitable loss through luck and a few friendly bounces of the ball are sure to fall. Coincidentally, it's just when the oddsmakers and fans are starting to believe.

By the same token, teams that couldn’t catch a break early in the season, lost a few games they should have won, and had their seasons written off as lost will begin to find their footing.

For these teams, it may be too late to rescue their record, but it is never too late to rescue their pride.

It is from that fierce drive to preserve one’s self that the upset is born. Regular-season upsets are more meaningful in college football than in any other sport.

Take the case of Wisconsin. The Badgers came into last week’s game at Michigan State undefeated and in control of their own destiny. If they were to win out, the likelihood was strong that they would have had the opportunity to play in the national championship.

Sixty minutes and a miraculous Hail Mary completion later, the Badgers were no longer undefeated and no longer a part of the national championship discussion.

In the NFL, if the Green Bay Packers were to lose this week, their season would keep moving right along, their championship aspirations unaffected. Not so in the world of college football.

As contrived, corrupt, and antiquated the bowl system may be, it does serve to guarantee that every game is life or death for a team’s championship hopes.

Here are five possible upsets that have a strong likelihood of coming to fruition tomorrow afternoon; three by way of outright wins, and two against the spreads set by Vegas oddsmakers.

No. 13 South Carolina at Tennessee

South Carolina started the 2011 season as a dark-horse pick to win the SEC. Steve Spurrier's squad came into the season led by experienced senior quarterback Stephen Garcia, junior wide receiver Alshon Jeffery, and sophomore running back Marcus Lattimore.

Garcia, a highly touted prospect coming out of high school, was entering his fourth season as the Gamecocks' starter. Many expected him to finally live up to his billing as the next great gunslinger coached by Spurrier, like Danny Wuerffel, Jesse Palmer, and Rex Grossman.

Jeffery, at 6' 4", 230 lbs., was coming off of a sophomore campaign in which he hauled in 88 receptions for 1,517 yards and nine touchdowns. A sure-fire first-round draft choice whenever he decides to leave school, most expected Jeffery to be an even more dominant force in 2011.

Lattimore had accounted for over 1,600 total yards from scrimmage and 19 total touchdowns in 2010. That's no small feat for any running back—let alone a freshman—competing in the SEC, home to the some of the top defenses in the entire country. He was considered by most to be a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate at the start of the season.

Two months into the 2011 season, things have not gone as planned for the Gamecocks.

Garcia was dismissed from the team in the first week of October for repeatedly violating team rules. He struggled through much of the season, throwing only four touchdowns against nine interceptions through five games.

Jeffery's numbers have dropped significantly since 2010, the result of a combination of Garcia's struggles and constant double- and even triple-coverage. He has yet to register a 100-yard performance through seven games in 2011. In addition, he has been held to less than 35 yards three times this season, which, before this season, hadn't happened since October 3rd, 2009.

2011 has been especially cruel to Lattimore, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Gamecocks' October 15th win over Mississippi State. Lattimore was injured late in the game and his absence leaves a huge hole in the South Carolina offense.

Tennessee, on the other hand, is in the midst of a rebuilding project under second-year coach Derek Dooley. The Vols come into this week's game having faced No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Alabama in their last two games, both losses.

Not only that, the Vols were playing without injured starting quarterback Tyler Bray in both games. Senior Matt Simms was ineffective filling in for Bray. He managed just 14 completions for 186 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions combined against the Tigers and Tide

This week, Dooley will turn to highly touted true freshman Justin Worley to start against the Gamecocks. Worley has yet to attempt a pass in his collegiate career, however, that is not for a lack of talent. The Vols were hoping to redshirt the young quarterback, but with Tennessee staring at a possible 0-5 start in SEC play, Dooley feels the time is now to turn to his prized recruit.

No. 13 South Carolina at Tennessee (cont.)

Tennessee is a team headed in the right direction. With Bray under center, the Vols got off to a 3-2 start, hanging tough with both Florida and Georgia, before falling to each.

Alabama and LSU are playing about as well as anyone in the country right now. Those two losses, however big, should not be used as a barometer for where Tennessee truly stands from a talent perspective.

Many around Knoxville are high on Worley, so expect the offense to perform better this week.

South Carolina struggled mightily on offense in their narrow win over Mississippi State, even though the Gamecocks had the services of Lattimore for much of the game.

Lacking any significant depth at running back, the loss of Lattimore severely hurts the South Carolina offense.

The Gamecocks relied heavily on their star running back to open up the rest of their offense, forcing defenses to commit seven or eight defenders to stopping the run. This allowed their passing attack to find open areas.

Without Lattimore to pull defenders into the box, defenses will be able to commit more defenders to containing Jeffery. This also will force the inexperienced Connor Shaw, South Carolina's starting quarterback since Garcia's dismissal, to make quick decisions and throw into tight windows.

Expect some growing pains for Shaw over the course of the next few weeks as he learns to live without the safety blanket that is Marcus Lattimore.

Without Garcia and Lattimore, the entire dynamic of the Gamecocks' offense has been forced to change. A Saturday night at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville is an extremely difficult environment for visitors. Look for Tennessee to pull the upset in a defensive battle.

Line: Tennessee +4.0
Over/Under: 45

Prediction: Tennessee 16, South Carolina 13

No. 22 Georgia at Florida (in Jacksonville)

The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party returns for 2011 with the roles of the two teams switched relative to recent history.

Georgia, who has lost 18 of their last 21 games against Florida, including three straight, enters the game as the odds-on favorite. The Bulldogs are ranked No. 22 in the latest BCS rankings and in control of their own destiny in the SEC East.

Florida enters the game losers of three straight, all to ranked opponents, and in the unfamiliar position of underdog.

Since dropping their first two games of the season, to then No. 5 Boise State and then No. 12 South Carolina, Georgia has gone on a five-game winning streak.

However, none of the teams Georgia has beaten during that run are ranked. In their last two games, the Bulldogs have struggled on the road against SEC cellar-dwellars Tennessee and Vanderbilt, winning the two games by a combined 13 points.

Possily contributing to their inconsistent play is that Mark Richt's Bulldogs, while talented, are extremely young. Georgia is led by a sophomore quarterback Aaron Murray. Their leading rusher is a freshman, Isaiah Crowell, and their leading receiver is a freshman as well, Malcolm Mitchell.

In the two games in which the Bulldogs played an equally talented team this season, the aforementioned matchups with Boise State and South Carolina, fundamental mistakes played a large role in their loss. Their youth undoubtedly being the main cause behind those mistakes.

While Florida has struggled in their last three games, against Alabama, LSU, and Auburn respectively, they were playing without quarterback John Brantley, who suffered a sprained ankle in a September 24th win over Kentucky. Brantley is invaluable to the Gators, who have very little experience at quarterback behind him.

Florida was also without senior running back Jeff Demps, who sprained his ankle in the loss to Alabama. Demps is one of the most explosive backs in the entire country and his return will surely provide a spark to the Gators offense.

Defensively, the Gators are one of the fastest teams in the country and have utilized that speed to hold opposing offenses to just 289 yards per game. They rank 16th in the country in scoring defense, allowing 18.9 points per game, despite giving up 38 and 41 points to Alabama and LSU respectively.

Head coach Will Muschamp, a noted defensive guru in his time at the University of Texas, is only just beginning to scratch the surface of his defense's potential.

No. 22 Georgia at Florida (in Jacksonville) (cont.)

Florida's defense matches up very well with Georgia's offense. Defensive tackles Jaye Howard, Sharrif Floyd, and Dominique Easley help to form by far the best defensive front that Isaiah Crowell has seen in his young career.

Also, there is a strong possibility that Malcolm Mitchell will be forced to sit out with a hamstring injury, limiting quarterback Aaron Murray's options against a ball-hawking Florida defense. Expect Muschamp to dial up the blitz early and often to force Georgia's young offense to make adjustments on the fly. Look for Florida's defense to capitalize on mistakes.

Conversely, Georgia's defense has struggled at times this season to contain speedy offenses, as evidenced by the 35 and 45 points they gave up to Boise State and South Carolina.

Jeff Demps and backfield cohort Chris Rainey form what could very well be the fastest duo in the country. Look for Brantley to manage the passing game well enough to open up lanes for Demps and Rainey to exploit.

Despite the role reversal of the two teams headed into this year's matchup, the outcome will be the same as it has been 18 of the last 21 years and Florida will come out on top in an entertaining game that is sure to provide some fireworks.

Line: Florida +3.0
Over/Under: 49

Prediction: Florida 37, Georgia 24

Baylor at No. 3 Oklahoma State

Baylor's Robert Griffin III and Oklahoma State's Brandon Weeden have been two of the most electrifying quarterbacks in all of college football this year. Griffin III has averaged 325 passing yards per game, with Weeden averaging 348.

Griffin III has led the Bears offense to 44.3 points per game, while Weeden has led the Cowboys to 48.6. Griffin III has thrown for 22 touchdowns, with Weeden tossing 19.

What sets the two quarterbacks apart? Griffin III possesses speed not seen at the quarterback position at the collegiate level since Michael Vick led Virginia Tech on an improbable run to the national championship game in 2000.

RG3, as he is known in Waco, Texas, has rushed for 295 yards and two touchdowns through six games. He is the ultimate weapon for head coach Art Briles. He's a prolific passer, electrifying runner, and rarely turns the ball over, having thrown just two interceptions in 182 pass attempts.

Neither team has much of a defense to speak of.

The Cowboys defense has yielded an average of 432 yards and 27 points per game through seven games. Through six games, the Bears defense has allowed an average of 425 yards and 32 points per game.

Both defenses exist merely to prevent opposing offenses from scoring quite as often as their own. Contrary to what those gaudy opposition averages may indicate, neither team has faced an offense anywhere near the caliber of the one they'll face Saturday.

The turf at T. Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater won't be burning just because of the white-hot quarterbacks on Saturday, either. Both teams have an electrifying, game-changing, go-to receiver—Justin Blackmon at OK State and Kendall Wright at Baylor.

Blackmon, whom will be a first-round pick if he chooses to enter the NFL Draft, has caught 61 receptions for 662 yards, an average of 94.6 yards per game despite constant double-coverage, and 8 touchdowns.

Wright, a senior speedster, has caught 55 passes for 757 yards, a mind-blowing average of 126.2 yards per game, and 9 touchdowns.

Both of Baylor's losses have come on the road against teams ranked in the Top 20. They dropped a heartbreaker, 36-35, to No.8 Kansas State on October 1st, and were beaten handily, 55-28, by No. 16 Texas A&M in College Station on October 15th.

Texas A&M also happens to be the only team currently ranked in the Top 20 that the Cowboys have even played. They beat the Aggies, 30-29, in an absolute thriller in College Station on September 24th. OK State also holds a win over Texas, currently ranked No. 24, but otherwise have not played anyone of note.

Baylor at No. 3 Oklahoma State (cont.)

Texas A&M holds the distinction of being the only team good enough defensively to hold each of these offensive powerhouses in check thus far in 2011. They did it with the help of their fans, "The 12th Man," one of the biggest home-field advantages in college football.

Stillwater, though rowdy in its own right, is not College Station.

Robert Griffin III must be salivating ahead of this matchup. The Cowboys defense is by far the weakest of any Top 10 team and certainly aren't anywhere on the level of Texas A&M's, the only team to effectively contain Griffin III this season.

The Cowboys will try to roll their coverage deep to avoid getting beat by Griffin III's arm, which will open up space underneath for RG3 to exploit with his world-class speed. Expect Griffin III to rush for at least 75 yards on Saturday as a result, and his success on the ground will keep Oklahoma State's defense off balance.

While Oklahoma State will surely score a lot of points against a weak Baylor defense, it will be Griffin III's legs that make the difference in the game, allowing for the Bears to score at will. Look for the Bears defense to come up with one or two key stops and, with RG3 as their quarterback, that will be all that it takes.

Line: Oklahoma State -14.5

Over/Under: 79.0

Prediction: Baylor 52, Oklahoma State 48

Navy at Notre Dame (Against the Spread)

At 2-5, Navy has been a bit of a disappointment in 2011.

Dating back to Paul Johnson's reign as head coach, the Midshipmen have been by far the most successful service academy. Johnson understood that he had to create a competitive advantage for Navy on his own if the Midshipmen were going to succeed.

Their option attack harkens back to another era of college football and its uniqueness makes it extremely difficult to prepare for.

Just ask Notre Dame.

The Fighting Irish have lost three of their last four against the Midshipmen, including two in a row. Brian Kelly's squad is reeling after being shellacked by USC a week ago. Some Trojans suggested the Fighting Irish gave up during the game.

Inconsistent play has plagued the Irish all season, and with their BCS dreams shattered, they are ripe for a letdown this week.

Notre Dame's defense has allowed 30 or more points in their last two games after performing rather admirably for a stretch. Considering Notre Dame’s you-never-know-which-team-will-show-up offense, an inconsistent defense is a recipe for disaster.

A saving grace for the Irish is that Navy's defense hasn't fared much better in 2011, allowing an average of 30 points per game. While their offense has run all over opponents, racking 325 rushing yards per game, which is third in the nation, it is the fault of their defense that they are 2-5.

Navy at Notre Dame (Against the Spread) (cont.)

Notre Dame is considerably more talented than Navy, but if their defense can't stop the Midshipmen option attack, it will be a long afternoon in South Bend.

One has to expect that Navy will be amped for this game, one that is most definitely circled in red on all calendars at the Naval Academy.

The question is, will Notre Dame bring the same passion?

No matter what the Irish psyche is going into this game, given Notre Dame's inconsistent play, the line is much too high in this game. While their talent alone will likely allow them to prevail, the game will be much closer than the two teams' records suggest it would be, and certainly don't be surprised if Navy pulls off a shocker.

Line: Notre Dame -21.5
Over/Under: 61.5

Prediction: Notre Dame 37, Navy 35

No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Kansas State (Against the Spread)

By the time he retired in 2005, Bill Snyder had single-handedly built the Kansas State football program from an also-ran into a perennial contender for the Big 12 title.

Ron Prince took over the program and coached the team for three mediocre seasons. After the 2008 season, he was let go, and Snyder came back to nurse his program back to health.

This season, it seems the Wildcats are back, with a 7-0 record and big wins over the likes of Miami, Baylor, and Texas Tech. Their biggest test of the season comes this week against an Oklahoma team smarting from their loss to Texas Tech just one week ago.

Kansas State has won by controlling the ball and the clock, playing hard-nosed defense, and taking care of the ball. There is no flash in their style, a signature of Bill Snyder football.

Oklahoma, on the other hand, is considered to have one of the most explosive offenses in college football. They were exposed last week, however, by a Texas Tech team that not many had felt was going to have a strong year.

A look at Oklahoma’s previous games reveals that when matched up against half-decent opponents, they aren’t able to score at will. They are forced to grind out tough victories by running the ball and controlling the clock. In other words, they must play Bill Snyder-style football.

While Oklahoma is a constant home-run threat, they do have the players to be able to win in three yards and a cloud of dust as well. Dominique Whaley, Oklahoma’s leading rusher, is a bruiser with speed, capable of playing either type of game.

No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Kansas State (Against the Spread) (cont.)

The Sooners, despite being ranked below the Wildcats, are the prohibitive favorite in this week’s game.

All that means is that America is underestimating the Wildcats’ ability to slow the game down and keep the pace to their liking. By controlling the ball and keeping it out of Landry Jones’ hands, Kansas State will be able to at least remain within striking distance.

Oklahoma had some weaknesses exposed in their loss to Texas Tech, so expect Snyder to look to exploit them.

However, in the end, Oklahoma will not lose two straight. They are simply too talented and, given that LSU and Alabama will square off next week, the Sooners are not out of the title hunt yet.

Expect a close, relatively low-scoring game (relative to the 50 points a game the Sooners have produced this year), but expect the Sooners to come out on top.

Line: Kansas State +14.5

Over/Under: 59.5

Prediction: Oklahoma 24, Kansas State 20