Hey Felix Hernandez: The Mariners Aren't the Only Team Counting on You

This season, more so perhaps than in any since their magical 116-win campaign, the Seattle Mariners have a legitimate shot at the AL West crown.

During the winter, the Oakland Athletics thought it wise to let Frank Thomas fly the coop to Toronto, while the Anaheim Angels and Texas Rangers acquired controversy-riddled outfielders Gary Matthews Jr. and Sammy Sosa, respectively.

Fortunately for Seattle, those aren't moves likely to improve any team's chances of capturing a championship. If the Mariners are ever going to gain ground in their division, this is the year to do it.  

 

With ten new players on their Opening Day roster—including Jose Vidro, Jose Guillen, Miguel Batista, and Jeff Weaver—the M's enter 2007 banking on a number of once-proven commodities. If these new acquisitions approach the numbers they posted during their career years, the AL West race could be a scorcher come September.

Seattle GM Pat Gillick obviously recognized an opportunity to capitalize on his competitors' complacency this offseason. With an offensive nucleus of Ichiro, Richie Sexson, and Adrian Beltre already in place, the Mariners' new pickups should turn them into contenders.

And still, for all that offensive firepower and all those new names, the fate of the M's will ultimately hinge on a single young arm: 

At the tender age of 21, can Felix Hernandez carry the load for a mediocre pitching staff?        

I think—or at least I hope—the answer is yes.

Granted, Hernandez's Opening Day start was a promising one: 8 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 12 K. No pitcher since Bob Gibson in 1967 has struck out at least 12 batters without allowing a run to open a season. But my own optimism is based on a far more fundamental fact:

 

I invested three picks in three different fantasy drafts on the Mariners' young gun.

I'm not just hoping that Felix will evolve into a top-tier starter this year—I'm betting my fantasy life on it.

 

With Felix as my ace, and only marginal help from my number-two starters (Jered Weaver, Noah Lowry, and Dontrelle Willis), I'm in the same boat as the Mariners: I'll sink or float with Hernandez's performance.

In 2005, I watched intently as "King Felix" posted a 1.60 ERA with 50 strikeouts in 50.2 innings over his first seven big league starts. Not surprisingly, he was quickly touted as the best teenage pitching prospect to hit the majors since Doc Gooden in 1984.

Despite fizzling over his last five starts to finish 4-4 with a 2.68 ERA, Hernandez showed a potential for greatness in '05. That potential went mostly unrealized in 2006, when he went 12-14 with a 4.52 ERA—but Hernandez entered Spring Training in 2007 having shed 20 pounds, proving his dedication to turning the Mariners into contenders.

Felix's only eye-opening statistics from a year ago were his strikeout totals, which ranked him eighth overall in strikeouts per nine innings amongst pitchers having thrown a minimum of 180 frames. Those numbers attest to the quality power pitcher that Hernandez could easily become, and show the road down which the future Cy Young-winner could very likely be headed.

That said, Felix's success in 2007 will be determined largely by his ability to know when to pull back. If he can learn how to conserve energy instead of trying to overpower every hitter he faces, the youngster might be bound for big things.

So, will King Felix reign high and mighty in Seattle this year?

Only time will tell. After following his first performance of the season, though, I'll go on record without hesitation:

 

Long Live the King!

 

At least until his next start.