Virginia Tech Football: BCS Standings and the Hokies' Chances at a Title Game

On the first day of October, Virginia Tech's national title hopes appeared to go up in smoke during a humiliating defeat at the hands of the now-Top 5 Clemson Tigers. After a crazy Saturday (and Friday) of college football, the national title picture now features only seven major conference winless teams, two of which are guaranteed to have at least one loss by Nov. 5.

While the Hokies are certainly a long-shot to crack the Top 2 of the BCS rankings by season's end, even if they can overcome a banged-up defense to win out, there is certainly a case that can be made for Virginia Tech to re-emerge in the conversation if the proper pieces fall into place.

It seems crazy to talk about national championship, especially for a one-loss team, but crazy things like this always seem to happen in college football. In 2007, the Hokies likely would have been championship-bound if not for a Matt Ryan miracle. Tech's only other loss that year was to an LSU team that eventually won that championship despite two losses.

Tech currently sits at 12th in the BCS standings, meaning they would need to win their next five games and find a way to leapfrog 10 teams by the final release of the BCS. I am assuming (boldly) in this scenario that Tech will win out and that the teams below Tech will not jump ahead of the Hokies in the standings.

Here are the teams, listed by BCS rank, Virginia Tech will need some early Christmas presents from if they want to have a shot at filling the empty trophy case this year.

No. 1/2 LSU/Alabama (8-0)

Alabama and LSU are listed together because their paths to the BCS title game are very similar, and the loser of their matchup is likely finished. The only real problem matchups besides each other for these two teams are Arkansas for LSU and Auburn for Alabama.

Whichever team loses this game will likely have to watch the other represent the SEC West in Atlanta come the first weekend in December. While most pollsters do not have a problem sending a one-loss SEC program to the BCS title game, most would agree that a team needs to at least win its own division to have a shot at the crystal ball.

Virginia Tech will have a very tough time passing the winner of this monumental matchup on Nov. 5. The good news for the Hokies is that they do not need to be No. 1, just No. 2, and the loser of this game is going to have a tough time staying in the top two, especially if the top team is in their same division.

No. 3 Oklahoma State (7-0)

The Cowboys have been a lot of fun to watch this year, putting up 48.6 points per game and earning a third-place ranking. However, their next three games are against Baylor, fellow undefeated Kansas State and at Texas Tech. They also must face in-state rival Oklahoma at the end of the season.

Oklahoma State will likely need to lose two of these games in order to drop below the Hokies, but the good news for Frank Beamer and company is that all four of those opponents are very capable of knocking off the Cowboys. Tech would preferaby like to see Baylor or Texas Tech get at least one of those victories, making more room to jump the other two Big 12 teams in the top 10.

No. 4 Boise State (7-0)

Ironically enough, Boise State may be Tech's biggest nemesis again this year after the Broncos broke Hokie hearts last year in the season opener. Boise has played a very soft schedule so far, with their only quality win coming against No. 22 Georgia.

The schedule doesn't get much tougher for Boise in their remaining five games either as their only tough matchup left is at home against unranked TCU.

Assuming the rest of the pieces fall into place for Tech and the Broncos win out, it will be very interesting to see if the Hokies (or any other one loss team) can get by the undefeated Boise State squad. They have looked unimpressive as of late and will need to look a lot better, especially considering their already-struggling computer ranking.

No. 5 Clemson (8-0)

Fortunately for Virginia Tech, they will likely get another crack at Clemson. If they do not, it will mean the Tigers likely lost to Wake Forest in which case they would be out of the BCS picture anyways.

Some voters may argue that a one-loss Clemson would deserve to be ranked higher than a one-loss Virginia Tech in the event the Hokies beat the Tigers in the ACC Championship, but in all likelihood the team that wins the conference would likely get the nod.

No. 6 Stanford (7-0)

Stanford has very quietly won their first seven games, all by at least 26 points, en route to a top six ranking and first place in the Pac-12. Stanford is another one of those teams where they may or may not drop below Virginia Tech with one loss depending on whom they lose to.

The Trojans of Southern Cal can do the Hokies a big favor by beating the Cardinal this Saturday in a game that's sure to be more than a little bit chippy in the Coliseum. The other remaining tests for Stanford include home games against Oregon (more on that in the next slide), Cal and Notre Dame. A loss to any of these teams besides Oregon would likely vault the Hokies over Stanford, but two losses would be much more comfortable.

No. 7 Oregon (6-1)

Oregon is very much still in the national championship picture considering their only loss was to LSU. Chip Kelly's Ducks have to travel to Washington and Stanford in back-to-back weeks, and Hokie fans would love nothing more than for Oregon to lose in Seattle, then turn around and beat the Cardinal.

One loss would surely be all that Tech would need out of Oregon down the stretch, but the real question is who Tech would want to lose a matchup between Stanford and Oregon in the event neither team loses in the meantime. The winner will almost definitely have to play in the Pac-12 Championship, so in all honesty, the loser will not be able to play for a BCS National Championship.

Oregon has no out-of-conference games left, so the ideal scenario for Hokie fans would be a Ducks win over Stanford plus a loss somewhere else, possibly in the conference championship.

No. 8 Kansas State (7-0)

Here we are back at the Big 12. Kansas State has been one of the surprise stories of this college football season. The Wildcats have won four of their seven games by a touchdown or less but nevertheless sit tied atop the Big 12 Standings.

Unfortunately for Bill Snyder, things do not get any easier. The next four weeks for Kansas State feature games against Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State, against Texas A&M and at Texas.

Virginia Tech will likely need two losses out of these four games considering the schedule strength the Wildcats are facing. Ideally, Kansas State would lose to Texas, who cannot pass the Hokies, but as long as all Big 12 teams have at least two losses, the method to the madness is irrelevant.

#9 Oklahoma (6-1)

Did I mention the Big 12 is pretty stacked? Oklahoma is very talented, and you can bet they'll be out to prove that they are the best team in the Big 12 despite their recent meltdown against Texas Tech.

The Sooners play Kansas State in Manhattan this Saturday in what is a very similar matchup to the Oregon-Stanford contest as far as the Hokies are concerned. Just like Kansas State, Oklahoma will have a strong enough schedule to stay ahead of the Hokies with one loss.

Following the Kansas State game, Oklahoma still must face Texas A&M and travel to Baylor and Oklahoma State. This is pretty much the same scenario just discussed, the exception being Tech only needs one Sooner loss here.

No. 10 Arkansas (6-1)

Some say that playing in the best conference is a blessing. However, for Arkansas, it seems destined to be a curse as the Razorbacks have already had to play at Alabama and then must travel to Baton Rouge to face LSU in their regular season finale.

Arkansas has already pulled out some impressive victories against Texas A&M and Auburn, and looks like a team very capable of competing for an SEC title if not for powerhouses Alabama and LSU.

Fortunately for Virginia Tech, the Hogs pose no threat to the Hokies' title chase unless they can somehow knock off LSU in Death Valley and defeat a sporadic South Carolina squad.

No. 11 Michigan State (6-1)

The bad news here for Virginia Tech is that Michigan State's only real test the rest of the season is this weekend at Nebraska. The good news is that Tech might not need the Spartans to lose.

Virginia Tech already holds a huge advantage over MSU in the computer polls. Should both teams win out and win their respective conference championship games, the voters will naturally be more likely to be swayed than the computers.

One dilemma that may arise is that Nebraska, currently ranked 14th, could leap the Hokies if they beat the Spartans this Saturday, essentially taking their spot. In this case, Tech may actually stand a better chance as the Huskers still must travel to Penn State and Michigan.