Iowa Football: Grading the Hawkeyes' Win over the Indiana Hoosiers

On Oct. 22, the Iowa Hawkeyes beat the Indiana Hoosiers 45-24.

It was an exciting and decisive win, but what can we really take from it? After all, Indiana is now 1-7. It's not as though the Hawkeyes beat a quality team.

If Iowa had put 45 points up on Penn State—a top-10 scoring defense—that would have been an accomplishment. If the Hawks had held Wisconsin—a top-10 scoring offense—to 24 points, that would have meant something.

But Indiana, which is now mathematically ineligible to make a bowl?

In effect, the best way to judge Iowa's win might be looking at the numbers and measuring them against the pool of statistics that Indiana has compiled throughout this season.

At this point, with eight games under their belt, the Hoosiers' stats give one a good idea about who IU is. Consequently, putting Iowa's stats up against the cumulative stats of Indiana's previous competition will also give us an idea how Iowa fared.

Adjustments Made for Final Drive

I will also note that the Hawkeye second team defense was on the field during Indiana's final touchdown drive.

Consequently, I didn't fully include those statistics in this exercise. On the other hand, as it's safe to say that the IU offense would have gained some yards on the first team Hawkeye defense if they had been in there, I cut the final drive's statistics in half.

Thus, the Indiana offense received half credit for the following stats from their final drive: 7 points, 78 yards, 48 rushing yards, 40 quarterback rushing yards, 25 passing yards, 2:20 time of possession, 9 plays.

Also, Indiana converted 1-1 third down, for which I did give them credit.

Indiana's Previous Competition

Ball State Cardinals (5-3) at a neutral site: 20-27.

Virginia Cavaliers (4-3): 31-34.

South Carolina State Bulldogs (FCS): 38-21.

At North Texas Mean Green (3-5): 21-24.

Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1/4-0): 10-16.

Illinois Illini (6-2/2-2): 20-41.

At Wisconsin Badgers (6-1/2-1): 7-59.

At Iowa Hawkeyes (5-2/2-1): 20.5-45.

Iowa scored the second-most points that have been scored on Indiana.

Making the aforementioned adjustments for the final drive, the Iowa defense had about an average showing against the Hoosiers, who had been scoring 21 PPG in their previous seven contests.

Iowa Offensive Statistics

Indiana opponents' YPG: 436.14

Indiana opponents' YPP: 6.0

Indiana opponents' rushing YPG: 217

Indiana opponents' rushing YPC: 4.99

Indiana opponents' passing YPG: 208.71

Indiana opponents' QB efficiency rating: 138.75

Iowa's total offense against Indiana: 456

Iowa's YPP: 7.86

Iowa's rushing yards: 203

Iowa's rushing YPC: 4.8

Iowa's passing yards: 253

Iowa's QB efficiency rating: 290.3

James Vandenberg had the best statistical performance to date against Indiana's pass defense—a defense which, incidentally, has faced some pretty good quarterbacks in Wisconsin's Russell Wilson and Illinois' Nathan Scheelhaase.

On the other hand, the running game underperformed a bit. Of course, if one takes Wisconsin's 7.9 YPC against Indiana out of the scenario, the Hawks were about average.

Also, sacks, which I will get to shortly, hurt Iowa's rushing yardage.

More Iowa Offensive Statistics

Indiana average sacks per game: One

Indiana turnovers forced per game: 1.86

Iowa sacks allowed against Indiana: Four

Iowa turnovers against Indiana: None

The turnover situation is obviously good to see. Taking care of the ball is a top priority for Kirk Ferentz, and his offense was flawless against Indiana.

The sack situation is disturbing, though a little more context is necessary.

While the Hoosiers quadrupled their average season output, it is notable that the Indiana pass rush seems to have gone into overdrive during the Big Ten slate.

IU had exactly one sack against its four out-of-conference opponents. The Hoosiers then had one sack against Penn State, three against Illinois and two against Wisconsin.

Giving up four sacks against this defense is still unacceptable, but one cannot say that Indiana hadn't found success getting to the quarterback previous to its contest against Iowa.

Iowa Defensive Statistics

Indiana's YPG (against previous opponents): 357.14

Indiana's YPP: 4.8

Indiana's rushing YPG: 133.71

Indiana's rushing YPC: 3.39

Indiana's passing YPG: 223.43

Indiana's QB efficiency rating: 112.64

Indiana's total yards (against Iowa, adjusted for final drive): 375

Indiana's YPP: 5.64

Indiana's rushing yards: 193

Indiana's rushing YPC: 4.24

Indiana's passing yards: 185

Indiana's QB efficiency rating: 147.13

There is no glossing over these stats.

Even though the Iowa defense held Indiana to roughly its average point total and only slightly more than its average total yards, it let up a lot more YPP than the previous Hoosier mean.

To some degree, this was the typical result of Iowa's bend-don't-break philosophy. It was also the result of an Iowa defense that is nowhere near as good as most previous defenses under Kirk Ferentz.

Nonetheless, there were three stats that I found particularly problematic. The first was Indiana's QB efficiency rating. That was the second highest rating the Indiana quarterbacks have had all year (South Carolina State was first).

And this was by a true freshman. On the road.

By comparison, Indiana's quarterbacks had an efficiency rating of 86.13 against Penn State, 92.76 against Illinois and 46.88 against Wisconsin.

I will get to the other two problematic numbers in the next two slides.

More Iowa Defensive Statistics

Indiana's red zone success against previous opponents: 13-18 (72.22 percent)

Indiana's red zone touchdown success: 50 percent

Indiana's third down conversion percentage: 38 percent

Indiana's fourth down conversion percentage: 58.33 percent

Sacks allowed: 20

Turnovers lost: 13

Indiana's red zone success against Iowa: 4-5 (80 percent)

Indiana's red zone touchdown success: 60 percent

Indiana's third down conversion percentage: 50 percent (7-of-14)

Indiana's fourth down conversion percentage: 66.67 percent

Sacks allowed: One

Turnovers lost: None

It is an understatement to say the Hawks have issues getting off the field on third down. They currently rank 112th in the country, allowing their opponents to convert 50.88 percent of the time.

Generally, due to the nature of its defense, Iowa has worse third down numbers than one might expect for a typically top 20 defense. However, the 2008 defense was 28th in the country. The 2009 D was 30. This defense is not in the same league as those defenses, but allowing over 50 percent of the opponent's third down conversions is unacceptable.

Furthermore, it is the lack of pressure (and the poor scheming that is not compensating for the pressure that the Iowa D-line can't generate) that contributes directly to the poor third down play.

The defensive line is what it is. It might get better, but it will not repeat the performances of 2004 or 2008. In effect, Norm Parker has to find a way to pressure or confuse the quarterback on third down.

Iowa might be able to get away with allowing a 50 percent conversion rate on Indiana. It won't get away with it on Michigan or Michigan State.

Quarterback Rushing Yardage

This is a tricky statistic, because Indiana has started three different quarterbacks this season. One of them—Dusty Kiel—is not much of a threat to tuck the ball and run.

The second—Edward Wright-Baker—is a dual-threat quarterback, but he is not overly dangerous as a rusher.

The final—true freshman Tre Roberson, who was the only quarterback that Iowa saw—is the most dangerous rusher.

In Roberson's four previous appearances, he had 24 carries for 62 yards and a touchdown. This was good for 2.58 YPC.

Against Iowa (again, adjusting for the final drive), he had 15 carries for 64 yards. This was good for 4.27 YPC.

This is troubling for a few reasons. The first is that, as previously mentioned, he was a true freshman starting in a hostile environment.

The second is because Iowa will be facing Denard Robinson and Taylor Martinez later in the season.

It is an understatement to say that Roberson and Indiana were a light version of what Iowa will see against Michigan/Robinson and Nebraska/Martinez.  

A Few More Thoughts Specific to the Indiana Game

It was good to see running backs De'Andre Johnson and Jordan Canzeri get some work. They both looked solid in limited action, especially Johnson, though the redshirt freshman did miss a blocking assignment. Hopefully, they can continue to improve, as Iowa needs both a change-of-pace back and someone to spell Marcus Coker down the stretch.

Jordan Bernstine continues to impress as a kick returner, and I am convinced he will break one before the year is over. Canzeri was also impressive in his one return.

On the other hand, Micah Hyde doesn't seem comfortable on punt returns. I don't know what other options the Hawks have, but it would be to their benefit to explore them.

Iowa did a good job of containing Indiana return man Shane Wynn, who has returned one kickoff for a touchdown this season. Moreover, A.J. Derby, who recently made the switch from quarterback to linebacker, had a solid tackle on kickoff coverage.

True sophomore cornerback B.J. Lowery replaced Shaun Prater for a series early in the third quarter. Prater came out following two personal fouls, but Lowery played well, breaking up a pass in the end zone and almost grabbing a pick on Indiana's last drive.

Lastly, one more concerning element of the Hawkeye defense was the sloppy tackling, particularly by the linebackers. Furthermore, the safeties, who are playing well, particularly in run support, are having to clean up far too many plays that the linebackers should be making.

This speaks to both sloppy tackling and slow reactions. Certainly, injuries have played a part, but in a linebacker-heavy scheme like Iowa's, this needs to improve ASAP.

In Closing

This was a solid performance by the offense, and an occasionally troubling, but comparatively speaking, average performance by the defense.

Though the offense gives me hope, we still don't know how JVB will fare against a good defense. He won't face one next week, but November will be a bear.

Meanwhile, the Iowa defense has a lot of issues that will not be fixed this season.

In effect, it will take some defensive scheming to cover up those issues, and frankly, Norm Parker and Kirk Ferentz might be too stubborn to make those changes.

Hopefully, they make some adjustments before Michigan comes to town on Nov. 5.