Winter Meetings Day 1: Do The Orioles Want a Garland For Christmas?

The day before the 2008 Winter Meetings began, the Baltimore Sun ran an article detailing the Orioles' potential moves over the course of the week. In summary, they concluded:

1. The O's will consider trade offers for second baseman Brian Roberts, but would prefer to negotiate an extension instead.
   
2. They want to trade catcher Ramon Hernandez and his huge contract.
   
3. They want to sign a shortstop.

Nothing new here. Roberts is an excellent leadoff hitter with defense at league average or thereabouts, he's in the last year of his contract, and he plays for a rebuilding team, so it's no wonder that half the league is interested in signing him.

Hernandez is a player whose value has steadily declined over the past two years, and by the time we reach May or so (when Wieters is promoted and given the starting job), he will be the best paid backup catcher in all of baseball.

And as I described in a previous article, the Orioles do have a major gap at shortstop—as the Sun notes, we don't even have a shortstop listed on our 40-man roster.

Well, the first day of winter meetings has come and gone, and one piece of news has filtered through the wires.

The Orioles have expressed an interest in free agent starter Jon Garland.

Last season, the Orioles used 13 different starting pitchers, ranging from Lance Cormier's solitary three-inning emergency appearance to Jeremy Guthrie's solid 190.2 innings of work. Exactly four of those pitchers posted up an ERA below five, giving us a combined total of 220.1 innings.

We could practically double our "number of innings thrown by a pitcher whose ERA is below five" by signing someone like Jon Garland, a pitcher whose sole claim to fame (and money) is his ability to eat up innings at considerably better than replacement level.

Garland would be a perfect Christmas present in my opinion, and apparently Andy McPhail agrees with me. Not only does he have a holiday-themed name, but he has also pitched more than 190 innings every season since 2002, posting up a career FIP (fielding-independent pitching) of 4.74.

His MARCEL projection for next season is a more respectable 4.43; in comparison, Guthrie's MARCEL projected FIP is 4.44. So Garland immediately becomes one of our two best pitchers, if we sign him.

How much is Garland worth? We can compare him to a replacement level starter in the following way. Let's assume a replacement level starter throws 150 innings with a FIP of 5.5. To make up the extra innings, a replacement level reliever has to come in and pitch 50 more innings at an FIP of 4.5.

So the replacement level starter gives up approximately 117 runs over the course of a season. Meanwhile, Garland will throw about 190 innings with a FIP of 4.43; toss in 10 innings of relief with an FIP of 4.5 and you have a value of about 99 runs.

So Garland is worth roughly 18 runs over replacement level, or about two wins, giving him a slight bonus because his durability lets our bullpen get more rest and perform better. In today's free agent market, a win above replacement is worth about $5 million. Therefore, Garland is worth about $10 million per season, a bit less if you factor in a "long-term contract discount."

How much does Garland want? He declined arbitration with the Angels, implying that he was unwilling to sign a one-year contract near his 2008 salary of $12 million. The general feeling is that he wanted a multi-year deal—the Orioles, who have exactly one major league caliber starter, would be in a good position to offer him one.

Something like three-years, $35 million sounds in the right ballpark. It's a slight overvaluing compared to my previous estimate, but let's face it—Baltimore is not a prime destination for free agents, and the O's front office is probably desperate enough to pay that kind of money anyway.

The money involved here is reasonable, and Garland is the type of player the Orioles really need in their rotation. Rushing minor leaguers like Radhames Liz and Brian Burres into the rotation before they're ready is detrimental to their development, our bullpen, and pretty much everyone else involved (except the opposing team's hitters).

If we can stick two or three solid innings-eaters like Guthrie and Garland in the rotation, and fill the rest out with journeymen (such as Brian Bass and Brad Hennessey), it means we can actually wait until our minor league talent is ready for the majors.