College Football Predictions: 5 Upsets to Watch for in Week 8

A key component of the excitement surrounding college football is that every game counts, week in and week out. Controversial as the lack of a playoff system in Division I Football Bowl Subdivision is, there does exist one undeniable benefit. Each game is equally important as the next because a single loss may destroy a team's national title hopes. Each additional loss beyond that only shortens the season from New Year's Day backward toward Thanksgiving.

While very few teams still harbor realistic national title aspirations at this point in the season, the urgency created by the one-loss-and done mentality manages to permeate throughout the ranks of college football nonetheless. Each Saturday, teams will line up from coast to coast and play for everything from a championship to nothing more than school pride.

There is no tanking the season for a better draft pick, no "Suck for Luck" campaign staged by fans hoping to land the star Stanford quarterback. In fact, in college football, the "lost season" effect has quite the opposite influence than it does in professional football.

For most seniors across the country, there are only a few games worth of organized football left to be played in their careers. If a team gets off to a disappointing start, you can rest assured that its senior leaders will encourage their teammates to continue to fight, turning their focus toward achieving the title of "spoiler," begrudgingly acknowledging the championship they originally set out to win is well beyond their reach.

It is for these reasons that any particular Saturday has the potential to produce an upset for the ages. Who can forget Appalachian State's epic, early-season upset of Michigan in the Big House in 2007? Or even just last year when James Madison pulled off a stunner against Virginia Tech? While those examples are extreme and certainly don't happen every week, let alone every season, they both serve to highlight the point that, in college football, the underdog certainly has his day.

Here are five potential upsets to watch for this weekend, including outright upsets based on ranking, and upsets against the Vegas spread.

No. 22 Georgia Tech at Miami (FL)

Georgia Tech heads into Miami ranked 22nd in the first BCS poll, released on Sunday, but don't expect the Yellow Jackets to be there much longer. 

Al Golden, in his first season with the Hurricanes, has expertly navigated his team through some very turbulent times in his short time at the helm. Before the season even started, Miami had lost its starting quarterback, Jacory Harris, and several other key players to suspension as the result of the Nevin Shapiro scandal, where a former booster admitted to providing improper benefits to football players. Amid renewed cries for the university to drop football all together as punishment for the scandal, Miami lost its first game to Maryland 32-24, and despite all the distractions and missing stars, the Hurricanes still had a chance to win that game late.

In their next game, Miami regrouped to destroy another scandal-ridden program, Ohio St, 24-6. Miami has since yo-yo'd their way to a 3-3 record, with their other two losses coming to Kansas State, which was not ranked at the time of their matchup but has since clawed their way to the No. 11 ranking in the initial BCS poll, and at Virginia Tech, currently ranked No. 12, by a combined seven points.

Meanwhile, Georgia Tech had cruised to a 6-0 start in Paul Johnson's fourth season at the helm, running all over six unranked opponents, including the same Maryland squad that squeaked out a victory over Miami. However, the Ramblin' Wreck came crashing back down to Earth last week, falling to a Virginia team whose three previous victories came in a blowout over an FCS opponent (William & Mary) and in two tight, down-to-the-wire battles with perennial doormats Indiana and Idaho.

Georgia Tech's 6-1 record is all smoke and mirrors, whereas Miami's 3-3 record doesn't do the team justice.

Prediction: Miami 38, Georgia Tech 28

No. 21 Penn State at Northwestern

At 6-1, the Penn State Nittany Lions have managed to pull off one of the most difficult tricks in all of sport. When viewed through the simple spectrum of wins and losses, the most basic and fundamental measuring stick of all, the Lions are certainly respectable, so much so that they are recognized as being among the Top 25 teams in the country.

However, when one widens the spectrum through which a team is evaluated to include a more broad range of factors like talent, ability and strength of schedule, Penn State quickly tumbles out of the Top 25. Once one acknowledges that Penn State may not be as good as their record may indicate, and takes into consideration the fact that the game will be contested under the lights in Evanston on homecoming weekend, and winning becomes a tall order for Penn State.

Obviously, the circumstances surrounding the game are not the main reason Penn State fans should be worried headed into Evanston. Thus far in 2011, Penn State's offense has sputtered to an average of only 21.7 points per game, 96th out 120 FBS teams. The lone bright spot on offense this season has been sophomore running back Silas Redd, who has managed 705 yards through seven games despite an almost non-existent passing game to keep defenses from stacking the box against him.

While Penn State's offense has been difficult to even watch, Northwestern's offense has been productive all season despite their star quarterback, Dan Persa, having played in only three games. Persa, a Pennsylvania native, is still working his way back from tearing his Achilles tendon less than a year ago and has not been 100 percent healthy to date. Persa's mobility is obviously limited by his injury, but his passing ability is anything but, as he has racked up over 700 yards passing in just three appearances.

The key matchup in this game will be Penn State's highly-ranked defense (No. 4 in the country in yards/game and No. 6 in points allowed) against Northwestern's explosive offense. As impressive as Penn State's defense has been, and without whom the Lions would be 3-3 at best, they have yet to face a truly capable, multi-dimensional offense. Even Alabama, who hung 27 on the Nittany Lions' D, has a mostly one-dimensional offense that relies heavily on Trent Richardson while they try to get comfortable with their young quarterbacks.

Northwestern can move the ball very efficiently through the air, and the Wildcats run the type of offense that a zone-happy defense like Penn State's often struggles to defend against. Even if the Nittany Lions can find success in slowing the high-scoring Wildcats, it is hard to imagine that the Penn State offense will be able to produce enough points to keep up.

Prediction: Northwestern 24, Penn State 17

No. 6 Wisconsin at No. 16 Michigan State

No. 6 Wisconsin, behind NC State-transfer Russell Wilson, has been an offensive juggernaut through six games, averaging a tops-in-the-nation 50.2 points per game. Wisconsin has destroyed every opponent it has faced, winning by an average margin of 40.5 points. Given this snapshot of dominance, it would be easy to name the Badgers the Big Ten Champions now.

The problem with statistics, however, is that they often do not tell the entire story.

For example, Wisconsin has yet to play away from the friendly confines of Camp Randall Stadium. Home-field advantage is huge in college football, especially in an environment like that in Madison where a raucous crowd makes life almost as difficult for opposing teams as the Badgers themselves do. Also, Wisconsin has yet to play a true, quality opponent aside from Nebraska, whom the Badgers jumped on early and did not let up in the traditional rivals' first meeting in years. Additionally, many are beginning to wonder aloud if Nebraska is even as good as advertised following a close game against a floundering Ohio State squad. Suddenly, Wisconsin's dominance seems only relative.

Sure, they have scored 50 points a game, but aren't the Badgers supposed to against teams like South Dakota, UNLV, Northern Illinois, Oregon State and Indiana?

This week, Wisconsin will face their first road game of the season against a team that breaks from the cupcake mold of those above, Michigan State. The Spartans boast a top five defense that proved last week against Michigan that it can shut down an elite rushing attack, and they have history on their side, having won three in a row at home over Wisconsin. That streak includes a 34-24 win last October 2nd, which dealt the Badgers their only regular-season loss in 2010.

The Spartans will depend on their blitz-heavy defense to shut down the Wisconsin rushing attack and force Russell Wilson to make plays through air in the face of a relentless pass rush. Expect the first such challenge faced by the Badgers to expose some flaws, and expect for Michigan State to force several turnovers on defense as a result, even without suspended DE William Ghoulston. The steady-handed Kirk Cousins will manage the ball well for Michigan State and, if last week's performance was any indicator of the direction his season is headed, look for Edwin Baker to grind out tough yardage for the Spartans to enable them to control the clock.

The Vegas oddsmakers have made Wisconsin an eight-point favorite in this matchup. Look for the Spartans to at least cover the spread, if not win outright.

Prediction: Michigan St. 16, Wisconsin 13

USC at Notre Dame

Given that, for the second straight year, USC is banned from participating in any postseason bowl, one must expect that the Trojans' coaches are touting this week's matchup at Notre Dame as effectively serving as this year's bowl game. A national TV audience will look on as the storied rivalry shared by the two programs opens a new chapter.

The timing couldn't be better for the Trojans. Expected by some to begin to show signs of resurgence a year ahead of having their postseason ban lifted, the Trojans have been unimpressive on their way to a 5-1 record, including a shellacking at the hands of Arizona State. While getting a team to compete with no real chance at accomplishing any particular goal is a tough task, Lane Kiffin's team has been sloppy at times, the defense uncharacteristically weak.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, stands at 4-2, both losses coming in the first two weeks of the season, both losses the result of epic collapses by the Irish. Playing a considerably weaker schedule this season compared to its most recent seasons, Notre Dame is looking to take the next step in restoring the glossy finish on the Golden Dome under second-year head coach Brian Kelly.

To this point, Notre Dame's biggest win this season came at home against Michigan State, but otherwise the Irish have been unimpressive as well. Nevertheless, some have begun to discuss a resurgence on the horizon in South Bend.

With no postseason to look forward to, it has not fallen on deaf ears that the mighty USC Trojans are being largely ignored. Lane Kiffin and quarterback Matt Barkley recognize the opportunity afforded them to burst back onto the national spotlight and set the stage for their one true shot together next season, the highly decorated quarterback's senior year. If the Trojans can manage to win big on national TV against 9.5-point favorite Notre Dame, they will start next season as a much-discussed contender.

Look for Barkley, Kiffin and Co. to come out firing, and look for Notre Dame's familiar problems—turnovers and inconsistent quarterback play—to reappear in the face of Trojan pressure.

Prediction: USC 31, Notre Dame 21

No. 20 Auburn at No. 1 LSU

If it were not for the suspensions of three key LSU contributors after each tested positive for synthetic marijuana, this game likely would not have registered on any upset alert. However, star cornerback Tyrann Mathieu, leading rusher Spencer Ware and nickel back Tharold Simon, who all are important because of LSU's heavy reliance upon the nickel formation, will all sit out this week against Auburn, leaving LSU in a position of vulnerability.

Already shaky in the passing game, LSU relies heavily on their ground game and suffocating defense to win games. With their leading rusher out, more pressure will be placed on the shoulders of Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee, facing a tough Auburn Tigers defense. If there is a team in the country that can easily overcome the loss of its leading rusher, however, it would be LSU, where running back depth is a major strength.

The suspensions are more troubling on the defensive side of the ball. There LSU will be facing first-time starter Clint Moseley, who looked good operating the Auburn offense against Florida. Given the difficulty LSU has in moving the ball at times on offense, could the weakening of their secondary due to suspension be the break Auburn needs to keep the game close?

Given that Auburn has finally made the move to the younger, more talented Moseley, look for the Auburn passing game to open up some holes for Michael Dyer. Auburn's offense will not be as stagnant as it has been in recent weeks, but it will also not suddenly resemble the Cam Newton-led attack of last year, either.

The Vegas oddsmakers are favoring LSU by 21. Look for Auburn, given the distractions and weaker LSU secondary, to keep it much closer than most expected, cover the spread but come up just short of winning the game outright.

Prediction: LSU 23, Auburn 13