New York Yankees' Mission: Revamp the Rotation

The New York Yankees have made it clear that they are going to open up their wallets this offseason. The strong mix of veterans and home-grown youth in Red Sox nation, and the new threat from General George’s home turf, in the form of the A.L. Champ Rays, have the Yanks in full attack mode. 

The majority of the Brinks truck will be emptied on their most glaring need, the starting rotation. Despite the decline in offensive production from '07 to '08, the team believes that with the return of Posada, and hopefully resurgence of Cano, the offense can still be one of the most potent in the league. 

However, with the recent retirement of 2008’s most reliable starter, Mike Mussina, the Yanks have multiple spots in the rotation to plug.

The first big play was made for the most coveted free agent out on the market. Carsten Charles Sabathia cemented his status as a front-line elite by following up last year’s A.L. Cy Young award with an unhittable second half of the season, carrying Milwaukee into the playoffs, along the way completing seven games and taking the ball on short rest a number of times.

He was a true horse, unheard of in this era. 

The Yanks recognize this rare left-handed talent, and attempted to wow him with a six year, $140M offer on Nov. 14. An offer that exceeded Johan Santana’s signed in 2007.  This should surely sow it up. The empire gets their man to measure up to their cross-town rivals left hander, or their hated Sox flamethrower Beckett. 

But, as time passes, it looks like that offer will die on the vine. We now hear whispers that the Angels are gearing up to make an offer to CC. Others say the Giants or Dodgers may dip their toe. 

Yanks fans, and probably management for that matter, have not really resigned themselves to the possibility that CC may not be in pinstripes. The school of thought was that the Yanks would blow him away, or the union would pressure him to take the biggest offer, which would likely come from the Yanks. But this is the Yankees.

Isn’t pride and humility, at least as important as winning? We should not need to beg CC to come. A big offer, likely the biggest, and the draw of the interlocking NY, and the lucrative market of gotham should be enough of a lure. If it is not, maybe the fit is not right to begin with. 

For that kind of check, the Yanks should be buying a happy camper. We have heard that CC wants to be on the West Coast, or CC wants to be in the NL. Well, if so, it is time to let the best pitcher on the market go. To be fair to CC, we have never heard him say, he does not want to come to NY.

We have never heard him say the pinstripes make him look fat. But with nearly a month passed since the offer was unleashed, it’s time to look at the contingency plans.  As we enter the winter meetings, let’s, for a few moments, also enter the twilight zone and explore the Yanks rotation if...wait for it...CC Sabathia is not a Yankee. 

To figure out where we need to go in 2009, we need to look at where the story ended in the 2008 season. The rotation last year was decimated by injury. In looking back, the names that had to take the ball, pitched admirably, considering their lack of experience and lack of stuff. The plan going into the season, was to rely on the “big three”, young, highly touted pitchers, whom Cashman refused to part with, for Johan Santana. 

Hughes, once the No. 1 ranked minor league pitcher in all of baseball, was to be given a spot and left to struggle a bit, but expected to emerge as a top arm by year end.  Joba Chamberlain, a Yankee sensation setting up for Mo down the stretch in ‘07, would start in the 'pen, but move to the rotation to fill out a 150-inning limit.

He would be the power pitcher that the Yanks were salivating for. Finally, Ian Kennedy, who resembled Mussina, had gone through three minor league levels into the big club, in 2007, showing success and growth in each.  The team believed he could at least fill out the No. 5 slot, and build into a middle of the rotation arm.

Unfortunately, as all baseball fans know by now, on all counts, the experiment was a miserable failure. Hughes once again had injury setbacks and inconsistency, and Kennedy was a complete bust with the team. He dominated in Scranton, the Yanks AAA affiliate, but was overmatched against big league hitting.

Joba, was as unhittable as ever, in both a set-up and starter role, but an injury in August, which may have been attributed to his switch to a starter, shelved him, and sealed the Yanks postseason fate. The lack of production from the big three really put the team behind the eight-ball from the very beginning, and led to their second straight slow start in April and May.

Perhaps the biggest blow was a base running injury to Chien-Ming Wang during inter-league play. The foot injury proved to be season ending, and the Yanks lost their ace. The team looked within the organization, and to waived scrap-heap players, to act as band-aids.

Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson were those band-aids. To their credit, they gave max effort, and performed admirably. They took the ball every five days, often times out of order and for the most part, pitched well enough to keep them in the game most starts. The last two spots were Yankee veterans Mussina and Pettitte. 

Moose was the one real bright spot.  He acted as the stabilizing force, pitching well all year, staying healthy, reinventing his pitch patterns, with the help of Jose Molina, and winning 20 games for the first time in his career. Pettitte was slowed by injury and struggled in the second half of the season, but in typical Pettitte fashion, gutted out the year. 

Since the last out of game 162, and the first time missing the postseason since ‘93, Mussina has announced his retirement, and after the Yankees are convinced they gotten as much as they can out of him, have sold Rasner to a Japanese club. Ponson and Carl Pavano are not under contract, and the team has no plans to re-sign either.

That leaves Wang, who clearly has a spot. Chamberlain who has a spot, but also an innings cap, so he will likely begin the season in the 'pen, or be skipped a few times as a started during the season. Hughes will also likely be given a spot out of the gate, but the team will also watch his innings closely. 

Ian Kennedy will need to prove himself in the spring, and likely in Scranton prior to being given another opportunity to start. Alfredo Aceves, a Mexican league pitcher, showed good command in AAA and a brief September call-up and would likely be the first pitcher to get tapped for a call-up during the year.

That still leaves at least two major league slots, and you can argue three, since the combination of Joba and Hughes cannot exactly count for two spots much of the year.

Andy Pettitte is the first order of business. Regardless of CC or not CC, Andy is still a pitcher that the Yanks would like to see back in pinstripes. He has been a warrior for the team, and the club and fans would like nothing more than to see Andy on the mound in the new stadium, finishing his career with the team in which he started.

The problem seems to be money.

Last year, he made $16M. After a down year, and nagging injuries, the Yanks want him to take a pay cut this year. He wants the same contract. A middle ground must be reached. There are recent rumors that Torre and the Dodgers are interested.

This could be another Houston scenario, where Andy feels spurned and moves on. Let’s not repeat history. Maybe its overpaying, but I would like to see Andy at one year and $14M. If it makes more sense, I would even sign on for two years and $28M. I would risk a second year on Andy. 

He has been a good, big game pitcher, and he is worth it.  If he prefers, I would offer a $12M base, and performance incentives that get him all the way up to $20M. To max out at the $20M, he would need to be among the A.L. elite, but more than likely with a good, healthy, Pettitte-like year, he will achieve at least the 16 he received in 2008.

Now, if Andy returns, he represents a re-up on the spot from last year. You still need to fill the hole left vacant by Mussina’s retirement, along with a last spot never filled after not getting Santana, and not having Kennedy materialize.  So via trade or free agency, the Yanks need to fill two rotation spots.

Again we are attempting to go under the assumption that we will not have CC’s services. So we need to live on shakier ground with two less formidable, reliable starters. That being said, there are a number out there. The key is choosing the right ones.

A.J. Burnett is probably the priciest consolation prize after CC.  A power pitcher with elite stuff, A.J. has been an injury risk throughout his career. He is a more inconsistent than the Yanks would like, but it’s tough to argue with his results against them, and his two plus pitches.

He is looking for a five-year deal, which the Yanks would like to see drop down to four.  I think I am in the minority on Burnett. Maybe I have not learned my lesson from the embarrassing lack of production we got from Pavano, but I would take a chance on A.J., even for five years, as long as the price is right.

Burnett just opted out of a $13.2M annual salary from Toronto. I would offer four years and $60M, but be willing to extend to five at $75M. That comes out to $15M annually. If the bidding exceeds that, I may increase the annual offer if the contract was four years, but I would be concerned to do so if increased to a five-year deal.

A vesting option deal could also work. It’s hard to argue with talent, and Burnett has a ton of it.

Derek Lowe is another premier option being bandied about in Yankee rumors. Fresh off a solid season and a good playoff, Lowe is a veteran sinkerballer, who is familiar with the challenges of the A.L. East. Lowe will be 36 next season and will get a three or four-year deal. 

He has been in the NL for a long time, and been in possibly the most pitcher friendly park in the league. He’s durable and can eat innings, but he is not looking for a serviceable type contract. He is looking for ace money, and Scott Boras is selling him that way.  Unless they can do three years at $36M, I would stay away. 

Ben Sheets is another big-time talent out on the free-agent market. A power pitcher with a long resume of injuries, Ben has fallen behind CC, A.J., and Lowe on the free-agent depth chart.

With his late season injury, he may have fallen to a bargain level. The Yanks should listen on Sheets, and make a reasonable short-term offer. A three year, $36M offer for Sheets would be a good one for the Yanks and could be enough to do it. 

Oliver Perez is a 27-year-old lefty who has proved he can pitch in NY. Always a Jekyll and Hyde pitcher, Ollie will likely receive a large money deal in the five-year range.  There is too much risk here. Let another team put their eggs in this basket. 

Brad Penny, an All Star in 2007, is a free agent, who had a miserable season in his walk year. He may sign a one year incentive laden deal in order to prove his worth.  This may be a perfect scenario for the Yanks, who expect more from some of their youth in 2010, and could use Penny as a veteran stopgap.

Jon Garland and Freddy Garcia, are two other possible low-cost options which the Yanks may look to, especially if the Yanks direct some of that money to other positions.

Jake Peavy has dominated the news as the main trade target on many a radar, but it has become clear that he is not interested in playing in NY and his no-trade clause allows him to control that. The Yanks probably do not want to part with the package of young talent that San Diego is looking for anyway. 

However, there may be other trade targets out there. Near the end of last year, Seattle was trying hard to get Erik Bedard healthy enough to move before the deadline. He may be on the block this winter as well. The Yanks should think about a package of Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera for Bedard.

Jonathan Sanchez is another talented under the radar pitcher in San Francisco which was rumored in trades with the Yanks for Matsui last winter.  Sanchez showed signs of being a very solid middle of the rotation arm. He could be a possible option. 

In the end, there are pitchers to be had. Sabathia is the first choice but does not have to be the only one. The Yanks need to be, and will be, open to all free agents, and should listen to trade opportunities. 

The winter meetings should ramp the rumor mill up to a fever pitch and hopefully culminate into a shiny new present under the collective Yankee fans tree’s this holiday season.