2009: Jim Rice's Last Chance For Cooperstown

After the first snowfall throughout much of New England (minor as it may be tonight), Red Sox Nation is pretty quiet.  Minor rumblings about Mark Teixeira, questions about Jason Varitek and Mike Lowell sputter around the local waterholes and Dunkin Donuts shops.  Nothing major; it is football season and the Patriots are the talk of the town.

However, in the back of Red Sox Nation's mind is one upcoming vote.  This vote has been disappointing for the Nation over the last 14 years.  The vote: the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA) Hall of Fame voting.  Over the last 14 years, the omission of Jim Rice has been a constant topic of discussion amongst baseball historians and fans alike.  However, after 2009, it ends for Jim Rice.

The 2009 Hall of Fame ballot marks Rice's last time the writers can vote him into the Hall.  Sure, if Rice does not make it this year, he can still be voted in by the Veterans Committee.  But why Rice is still not in the Hall is a mystery.

It surely cannot be the numbers.  Between 1975 through 1986, Rice was one of the most feared hitters of the era.  An eight-time All Star, three-time AL Home run leader, two-time Silver Slugger, and 1978 MVP, there were few hitters more dominating during this era. 

Statistically speaking, his numbers are comparable to Hall of Famers Tony Perez and Orlando Cepeda (both of whom were voted while Rice has waited).  Of course, his 382 home runs and 1451 RBIs (which he has stated he attained the "right way") pale in comparison to the "steroids" era statistics acheived by the likes of Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, etc.

Maybe the reason Rice is not in the Hall is that he was perceived to be "surly" towards some media members.  This perception may have hindered the voting results for Rice, especially early on. 

Also, remember that Rice was involved into a shoving match at the end of his career with Manager Joe Morgan.  This incident may have also affected some voters, at least initially.  It makes sense, considering that Rice did not get serious consideration for the Hall until recently.  However, after receiving 72 percent of the vote in 2008 (with 75% required for entrance into the Hall), it all ends for Rice in 2009.

What is most amazing about Jim Rice's chances of entering Cooperstown in 2009 is that they hinge little on his career performance.  Steroids, personalities, and several other borderline candidates really will decide if Rice will reach the 75 percent threshold.

Only one player on the 2009 ballot is a sure-fire Hall of Fame player: Stolen-base king Rickey Henderson.  There is little doubt that his career warrants entrance into the Hall.  The only question is how much of the vote will he get?  He was never known as a great "clubhouse guy".  Will that cause some writers not to vote for him?

After Henderson, other top players on the ballot includes returning candidates Andre Dawson (65 percent of the vote in 2008) and Bert Blyleven (61 percent).  Will either of these ballplayers, both borderline but deserving candidates, overtake Rice?  Also, do not forget that "steroids" all star Mark McGwire also is on the ballot.  Will the writers decide that steriods era players like McGwire is a Hall of Famer?

Finally, how many votes will the other first ballot players (Ron Gant, Matt Williams, Mark Grace, David Cone, and Jesse Orosco) receive?  None are sure-fire, but put forth interesting careers.  Also, do not forget that some writers like to spend votes on unworthy candidates.  Look at who actually received Hall of Fame votes in 2008: Shawon Dunston, Chuck Finley, Travis Fryman (two votes apiece), David Justice, Chuck Knoblauch, and Todd Stottlemyer (one vote apiece).

What does this all mean?  On paper, Jim Rice's chances appear solid, since there is only one sure-fire Hall of Famer.  However, the writers' opinion about steroids and other borderline candidates make the ballot very cloudy.  For Jim Rice, at least the anxiety ends after this vote this year.