Phillies Flirt with "Younger" Pitcher: Great Minds Don't Always Think Alike

It’s is time again for the ying and the yang, the positive and the negative, the right and the wrong.

Well, this time Christian Karcole and I, Scott Eisenlohr, turn to the hot stove league during the offseason of Major League Baseball and turn to our favorite hometown team, the 2008 World Champion Philadelphia Phillies.

Yep, the Phillies won their second ever World Series championship in late October but, like other teams, face crucial offseason decisions. For the Phillies, the questions are many:

Will they resign free agent outfield Pat Burrell? How are they going to deal with several arbitration dates with key players such as Ryan Howard and World Series MVP Cole Hamels? Who will be gone and who will be new to the Phils?

Today we will look at pitching for the Phillies, the major priority according to new general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. In specific: Jamie Moyer or Derek Lowe? Who to choose?

Christian: Should the Phillies bring back the pitcher who may not be able to perform like last year, but gives solid consistency and leads the staff perfectly, even with his age?

Or should the Phillies sign the pitcher who is a very solid sinker-baller and ranks as one of the top free agents, even with his age (although still 10 years younger than Moyer...that's how you know Moyer is old)?

I'm going with the latter.

Let's see what you've won, Christian! Aha, it appears you have chosen Derek Lowe!

Oooooh, I'm very pleased. Here's why:

1. There is not a bigger factor in this discussion than age. Jamie Moyer is 46 and Derek Lowe is 35. That's 11 years! Big, big difference.

Moyer has been performing terrifically of late, even with his age, but how long can that go on? He's bound to retire in one or two years, and who knows if he can still pitch well in those years?

I'd much rather take the sure bet with Lowe, who will be able to pitch for a few more years than Moyer, if not more.

Scott: Yep, Moyer is 46 and Lowe is 35. But let us look at the issue of character. Character, you say, with salaries approaching the national debt? An exaggeration, but let me explain.

What is the last image you have of these two pitchers? Jamie Moyer pitched a solid six-and-a-third innings in a 5-4 Phillies win in Game Three of the World Series. And just off a raging fever, upset stomach and lack of sleep due to the flu.

Lowe? He knocked over the Gatorade cooler in the Dodgers’ clubhouse after giving up two runs in the first inning of Game Five of the NLCS when Cole Hamels bested him to advance to the World Series.

Granted with that sinker, Lowe is gold if you don’t get to him by the third inning. But the Phillies proved he can be rattled. Imagine if he bombs out in Philly? Ouch! And age?

Moyer himself has said he’s been told he should retire in the past 10 years. So what if he last a year or two more? He made $6 million last year, a he has never made more than $7 million. Lowe made a career high $10 million in 2008 and probably is looking for a raise.

2. Lowe has been statistically a better pitcher over the last two seasons, and by far.

In 2007, Moyer went 14-12 while posting a 5.01 ERA, and struck out 133. Lowe went 12-14 with a 3.88 ERA and struck out 147. Lowe also allowed just 20 home runs and 59 walks, while Moyer allowed 30 home runs and 66 walks.

So Lowe was better in all those categories, except for wins, which the is the most deceiving stat for a pitcher. Moyer was on a much better team, so he benefited. But looking at the rest of the stats, Lowe has much better numbers.

Scott: Poppy cock. Why don’t you look at this year? Was your computer broken? Moyer was 16-7 in 2008 and Lowe was 14-11. Moyer’s ERA was 3.71, while Lowe’s was 3.24. Little difference. 

During the World Series the Fox announcers asked baseball analyst Ken Rosenthal if Moyer ever pitched at a faster speed when he was a rookie in 1986. Rosenthal indicated that Moyer's fast ball topped out at 84-86 MPH when he was young. Moyer’s fast ball is about in the 82-84 MPH range at the age of 45 last season.

3. Lowe brings something new to the Phillies staff: a real effective sinker-baller.

Kyle Kendrick also brings this pitch to the table. There's just one problem: He and his sinker are no longer effective. Plus, he may not even be in the rotation come April.

Derek Lowe's sinker is one of the best in the game and when you bring that into the rotation, you bring a huge piece of the puzzle. This would give the Phillies an edge on opponents, because they see a different pitch every night, and they are all so different.

Scott: Lowe is another right-handed pitcher, making Cole Hamels your only lefty of the starting four. You would go left, right, right, right with Lowe and left, right, left, right with Moyer. Moyer has won 30 games in the past two seasons. He has averaged 200 innings pitched in the past three seasons.

The only reason I possibly would not want Derek Lowe is if it means the Phillies will not be able to sign Pat Burrell or another high priced left fielder. The good sign with Burrell is there doesn't seem to be a big market for him so far, so signing him seems more and more possible. But signing Lowe could hang that possibility in the balance.

But even then, I think I would take Lowe over Burrell.

All in all, Lowe seems to me to be the much better choice over Jamie Moyer. He's much younger than Moyer, his sinker is more dominant than any of Moyer's pitches, and his consistency over recent years and for most of his career is better than Moyer's as well.

Go, Lowe!

Scott: Seattle Times columnist Steve Kelley asked Moyer if he would like to ride out into the sunset and go out on top. Moyer admitted it could be a perfect ending, but said:

“ …I still have that burning desire to play. I feel like if I just hung it up right now, there’d be something inside of me saying, ‘What if? What if? What if? Believe me, I’ve heard it for the last 10 years. You know, “You’re too old.’ But you never know until you try.”

Go, Jamie! You are left-handed, akin to a player/coach, a workhorse and a 10-win or more pitcher in the last four years. I have no doubt you can do it again.