How Many More Games Can Ohio State Win Without Throwing a Pass?

After the first few games of the season the common joke was, "Ohio State can't pass."  Last week against Illinois, Ohio State embraced that.  Now the joke is on Ron Zook.

The Buckeyes cranked the Tressel-ball knob to 11 on a visit to Champaign, and the box score looks like something you would see from a Georgia Tech or Army game.  Fifty-one rushes to just four pass attempts.  Quarterback Braxton Miller finished with twice as many rushing yards (34) as passing yards (17).

Part of the Buckeyes success on the ground comes from the return of Dan Herron from suspension; Herron led the team in rushing yards with 114 on a 5 yard-per-carry average, as well as scoring Ohio State's only rushing touchdown.  It also helped OSU's cause that the one pass of four that Miller completed was a 17-yard touchdown to Jake Stoneburner.

Of course, nearly shutting out an opponent on defense helps as well.  Ohio State held Illinois to 285 yards of total offense and averages of five yards per pass attempt and 3.3 yards per carry.  On top of that, Ohio State recovered one fumble and got two interceptions.

Is this a winning formula for the future?  If any team has the raw talent on both sides of the ball to do it, it would be Ohio State.  However, even after facing three of the five toughest teams in the conference so far (Michigan State, Nebraska, Illinois) Ohio State doesn't get much time to rest after this week's bye.

Let's put on our prognostication hats and try to answer the question: how many games can Ohio State win this year without throwing a pass?

Offense

First, let's consider what Ohio State has to work with on offense.

At quarterback, it is clear that there is really only one option.  Despite coming into the year as the favorite for the job, Joe Bauserman has played badly enough that its tough to imagine the locals allowing him to live in Columbus after the season, much less standing idly by as he starts another game.  

Needless to say, this entire thought exercise is predicated on Braxton Miller being The Guy from here on out.  Miller isn't a bad player to depend on...at least as far as true freshman quarterbacks go.  Miller has the recruiting resume as a local kid from Ohio who ended up one of the top dual-threat quarterback recruits in the nation.  

So far Miller has had an up-and-down year.  First, he was beaten out by Bauserman, then he was thrown into the fire late against Miami to clean up Bauserman's mess.  

After being thrown to the wolves against Michigan State, Miller turned it around for three quarters against Nebraska, leading the Buckeyes to a three-touchdown lead before going down with an ankle injury and watching Bauserman be Bauserman.

Miller is still prone to freshman mistakes, but he has the athleticism to extend plays and can be a dangerous option against teams that overload to stop the Buckeye running backs.

Now that Dan Herron is back from suspension, the running backs are more of a threat.  Herron led the team in rushing a year ago with almost 1200 yards and 16 touchdowns, and in just one appearance back, he was able to rush for over 100 yards and a touchdown.  

Providing a counter-punch is the duo of Carlos Hyde and Jordan Hall, the two running backs who led the Buckeyes over the first half of the season in Herron's absence.  Hyde has been the most productive back so far, averaging 58 yards per game.

Ohio State also has the benefit of running behind an experienced line.  Both tackles, JB Shugarts and Mike Adams, boast starting experience, and center Mike Brewster is one of the best in the nation.

The run game is well stocked with talent and has produced at an above-average level so far this season despite faltering in the disappointing Michigan State game, which included 75 lost yards that came mostly on sacks.  Ohio State is 46th nationally with 175 yards per game.

Defense

If, hypothetically speaking, the Buckeyes wanted to make it through the season without throwing another pass, the run game isn't the only important factor.  If Ohio State wants to get rid of the forward pass, the defense is going to need to slow games to a crawl.

So far this season, that hasn't been a problem.  Ohio State sits in the top 20 in both scoring and total defense.

The non-conference schedule was mostly cake outside of a bad game against Miami in which the offense didn't do much to help.  Conference games against Michigan State and Illinois have yielded a combined 17 points and through three quarters, Ohio State held Nebraska to just six points.

The Buckeyes are led up front by a strong defensive line headlined by John Simon and Johnathon Hankins, who are one and two respectively in both sacks and tackles for loss on the team.  

Linebackers Etienne Sabino and Andrew Sweat are the most productive linebackers; Sweat leads the team in tackles and is third in tackles for loss, while Sabino is third on the team in sacks.

Four Ohio State defensive backs have interceptions so far this season and the unit has helped Ohio State to a 33rd ranking in pass efficiency defense and a 21st ranking in pass yards allowed.

The Buckeyes have enough talent on the defensive side of the ball to shut down most teams and force turnovers (OSU is 15th in the nation in turnover margin) and set the offense up with advantageous field position.

Is this enough to survive the final five games of the season?  Let's look at each matchup.

Oct. 29 vs. Wisconsin

Well, if there was one game that would throw a wrench into the Buckeyes' "all run, all the time" plan, it is the Wisconsin game directly after the bye week.

The Badgers have already laid impressive claim to being the best team in the conference and have the numbers to prove it.  Offensively, Wisconsin is the best scoring offense in the country with a per game average of 50 points.

It is easy to score when you have the top rated quarterback in pass efficiency (Russell Wilson) and two productive running backs (Montee Ball, 108 ypg; James White, 69 ypg) who all operate behind a massive, deep and experienced offensive line.

On the other side of the ball, the Badgers are no slouch, either.  Wisconsin is seventh in the nation in total defense and third in scoring defense, and more importantly for the Buckeyes, Wisconsin only allows 123 yards per game on the ground.

The rest of the game doesn't look so promising, either.  Wisconsin has one of the best offenses at not turning the ball over, and that has helped it get to 11th in the nation in turnover margin.  A ranking of ninth in net punting means there aren't many hidden yards to be found in special teams.

Overall, the Badgers are just too strong on offense and too well-rounded on defense.  Once the Badgers take the lead (and with an offense this powerful, the question is when, not if) the only way a team can hope to keep up is to move the ball through the air.

This one is out of reach for the Buckeyes, even if Miller does decide to play a little pitch-and-catch with his receivers.

Verdict:  Certain loss

Nov. 5 vs. Indiana

That's more like it.  Indiana as a team is weak in all the ways necessary for Ohio State to rely only on the run.  

The Ohio State defense shouldn't have any problem bottling up the below-average Indiana offense.

Against Penn State and Wisconsin, two comparable defenses, Indiana managed just 256 and 287 yards respectively with five turnovers.  The Hoosiers are nearly bottom 20 in scoring offense, coming in just above that line at 99th.

Defensively, there is only one number you need to know: 117.  That is Indiana's ranking in rush yards allowed per game.  The average of 227 ypg doesn't even look that bad when compared to the 332 that Wisconsin was able to run up against the Hoosiers.

Make no doubt about it, Ohio State can leave the receivers on the bench for this one.

Verdict: Certain win

Nov. 12 at Purdue

Speaking of leaving the receivers home, Purdue does that nearly every week.  The Boilermaker offense is as run-first as they come, averaging 206 yards rushing per game to just 194 yards passing.  Despite leaning heavily on the run game, the Boilermakers still average 30 points per game.

Unfortunately for Purdue, when real defenses come knocking, the results are hit-or-miss.  Against Notre Dame, Purdue was only able to gain 272 yards of offense, two-thirds of that coming through the air after going down early.  The Boilermakers ended up with just 85 yards rushing on three yards per carry for the game.  

However, when the Boilermakers aren't forced into a deficit early and can stay with the run, the offense can still produce against good defenses.  Penn State's scoring woes allowed Purdue to stay close and put up 162 yards on just under five yards per carry.

Defensively, one would think Purdue would hold up better against the run after seeing it so much in practice.  Instead, the Boilermakers are average in rush yards allowed (59th, 149 ypg) and have a bad problem against good running teams.  

Both Penn State (182 yards, 3.8 ypc) and Notre Dame (287 yards, 7.4 ypc) exceeded Purdue's average yards allowed on the ground.

This one has all the signs of an ugly win for an all-run Ohio State.  Purdue has the horses to keep up on the ground, but despite keeping it close through three quarters, the Buckeyes will prevail.

Verdict: Confident win

Nov. 19 vs. Penn State

This is the game that Ohio State gets to gaze into the mirror at itself: a tough defensive team with quarterback problems.

Penn State's quarterback problems are all in Joe Paterno's head.  I mean seriously, he keeps playing Rob Bolden for some unknown reason.  Matt McGloin has been the more productive quarterback for the majority of the season, but a few series a game always go to Bolden as some sort of peace offering to keep the sophomore from transferring.

Now to be honest, neither quarterback is lighting the scoreboard up.  McGloin is sixth in the conference in pass efficiency (Bolden is 12th.  See my point yet?) and the Penn State passing offense is just 81st nationally with an average of 208 yards per game.  On the ground, Penn State is carried by the workmanlike effort of Silas Redd, who is the backbone of the Nittany Lion offense.

Defensively, Penn State is very strong, but fortunately for Ohio State, that strength is focused on the pass. The Nittany Lions are Top 10 in both pass yards allowed (seventh) and pass efficiency defense (third). When it comes to stopping the run Penn State is no slouch, averaging 103 ypg allowed.

However, the aforementioned Purdue rushing offense gave Penn State trouble to the tune of 162 yards.  Although that was the only team other than Alabama (196 yards) to break the century mark against Penn State's defense.

If the Buckeyes decide to try and win this one on the ground, it could be a sloppy game for both teams. Penn State doesn't have the offense to run away from the Buckeyes, and Ohio State doesn't have the running game to light up the scoreboard against this tough Penn State defense.  

Look for a lot of punts and field goals, but not much in the way of a final score.

Verdict: Toss up (Lean: OSU)

Nov. 26 at Michigan

If things go as I suspect for Ohio State's season of giving the dismissive motion to the forward pass, the Buckeyes will enter the Big House in late November at 7-4 with four conference wins.  Not one of those wins would be sweeter than continuing the win streak against Michigan and sending Brady Hoke's rookie year out on a sour note.

However, the Wolverines are no cakewalk.  Michigan is the 13th-ranked rush offense in the country and is still averaging over 200 yards per game passing.  Denard Robinson had trouble passing against Michigan State last weekend, but swirling winds and constant pressure from the Michigan State offense didn't help.  

Ohio State's defense is strong, but so was Notre Dame's and the Irish were shredded for 338 pass yards, most in the fourth quarter.  It is no guarantee that Michigan moves the ball through the air on Ohio State, but it seems unlikely that Robinson is nearly as bad as he was last weekend.

Thankfully, he won't need to be as otherworldly as was necessary last year.  Michigan kinda sorta has a defense to fall back on this year.  The Wolverines are an average rush defense (62nd, 153 ypg) but have played well above that level (the Wolverines are 10th in scoring defense giving up just 15 points per game) thanks to a newfound ability to generate turnovers.

This one, like the hypothetical Penn State game, probably gets ugly as well.  Ohio State is good enough on defense to throw Michigan out of rhythm, but not good enough on offense to pull away on the scoreboard.  In the end, home-field advantage most likely is the difference in a game this evenly matched.  

Verdict: Toss up (Lean: Michigan)

In the end Ohio State's (hypothetical) run-a-palooza ends with a .500 conference record and seven wins overall.  Good enough for a bowl game, but not good enough to remove the boot from Luke Fickell's---

Well, you get the picture.