BCS Rankings: The Easiest and Hardest Roads to the BCS Bowls

Unfortunately, we've come to a time and place where schedules are the most important criteria when evaluating a team's merit.  I disagree completely with the steps teams have taken to tailor a schedule "built for success." 

It gets so ridiculous, that teams are picked to be successful based solely on their schedule.  Many picked Virginia Tech to be successful this year not because of any talent on their team, but because they played an easy schedule.  As we found out with Virginia Tech (and countless others who have been slotted in this position before), this isn't enough to make a team successful.

But we're are past the halfway point of the season, and we should have a good barometer on teams by now.  Since schedules have become so important, and since the BCS is sort of a "last-man-standing" scenario, we can evaluate the easiest and hardest paths left for top 25 BCS teams.

This isn't a list in anyway of who will win the title, or who has best chance to.  It is strictly the easiest and hardest schedules left.

Easy: Michigan

Remaining: Purdue, at Iowa, at Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio State

The Wolverines have played an easy schedule so far, facing only one ranked opponent.  They have capitalized, beating everyone except the one ranked opponent.

Their fortune continues with an easy road ahead: only five games left, three at home. 

The toughest remaining games are most likely the two road games.  Iowa has always been a tough place to play, and the Hawkeyes have a solid rush defense. 

The same is true for the Illini's defense.  The Illini's rush defense is 18th in the nation.  I expect more and more teams to say, "We're going to make Denard Robinson beat us through the air."  Save for a crazy ending against ND, Robinson hasn't done it yet.

I give an edge to Michigan over Nebraska at this point.  It will be the matchup of QBs who are great runners but can't throw the ball.  Right now, Michigan's defense is playing better.

The rivalry against Ohio State figures to be in Michigan's favor this year, but as we know, you can throw the records out for that one.

Easier: Houston

Remaining: Marshall, Rice, at UAB, at Tulane, SMU, at Tulsa

Houston will play, at most, one winning team on the road for the remainder of the season (Tulsa is 3-3, and could be anywhere from 5-6 to 8-3 when they square off). 

Tulane and UAB certainly won't have winning records, as the two are a combined 2-11.

That being said, Houston has developed a pattern of falling to the oddest teams.  They are below .500 on the road the past three seasons.   They lost to Rice last season, and UTEP in 2009.

The toughest challenge comes in the form of SMU, which has already knocked off TCU on the road and UCF at home.

While everyone is talking about Houston's chances to make a BCS game, we need to remember that a loss against SMU wouldn't just knock the Cougars out of the BCS, it would knock them out of the divisional race!  Houston and SMU are both undefeated in the Conference USA West, and that game will most likely determine the champion.

If we figure that Houston wins out, then they will have to play in the C-USA championship game.  This could make them face UCF or Southern Miss, two teams that they wouldn't have played in the regular season.

Houston should be favored in every game they play for the rest of the year and will only play a ranked team if SMU wins out up to their game (setting up a blast from the past: two teams from the old Southwest Conference). 

While this sets them up one for one of the easier schedules remaining for a BCS contender, there are a few potential pitfalls along the way. 

Easiest: Boise State

Remaining:  Air Force, at UNLV, TCU, at SDSU, Wyoming, New Mexico

I have to give credit to Boise State for scheduling a difficult first half of their schedule.  They played Georgia in the Georgia Dome, traveled to Toledo, and hosted Tulsa and former WAC foe Nevada.  As a result, I don't think their being a non-AQ should disqualify them from the national title game.

But now, the coast is clear. 

Boise has four of their six remaining games at home, a place where they haven't lost since 2005!  UNLV on the road should not provide a threat, and SDSU could provide a small threat, but nothing like what we saw in Reno last year.

The schedule was aided in large part with the change of venue against TCU.  The Broncos-Frogs game was originally slated to take place in Fort Worth.  When word got out that TCU was leaving for the Big East (which they aren't even doing anymore), Mountain West officials decided to move the game to Boise.  A rebuilding year for TCU, combined with the game being in Boise, makes that game a lot easier for Boise.

And don't expect a repeat of last year, where Boise gets to the final game and collapses.  Instead of traveling to a tough Nevada team, they will host New Mexico, which has exactly two wins in the past two plus years.  The spread can get in the area of 50 for that game.

Anything can happen, but expect Boise to be double-digit favorites in every game for the rest of the year, with the smallest spread most likely being at Qualcomm when it takes on the Aztecs.

Hard: Stanford

Remaining:  Washington, at USC, at Oregon State, Oregon, Cal, Notre Dame

Stanford hasn't played a team with a winning record yet.  That is about to change.

First, they host a dangerous Washington team in Palo Alto.  While they are somehow 21-point favorites this weekend, expect them to get their toughest test of the season.

Then they go on the road twice before closing with three straight home games.

USC should still not be taken lightly.   USC had Stanford all but beat last season, and could be undefeated if not for a fourth-quarter meltdown in Tempe.

Oregon poses a threat to Stanford, wherever the game is, while Cal and ND are rivalry games.  ND could be nationally ranked again by this point and still be sitting on two losses.

If Stanford wins out, then they will play in the inaugural Pac-12 title game.  This would most likely see them facing a Sun Devils team that they didn't see in the regular season.

Games at the Coliseum, and home games against Washington, Oregon, ND and potentially ASU makes this one of the harder finishing slates.

Harder: LSU

Remaining:  Auburn, at Alabama, Western Kentucky, at Ole Miss, Arkansas

Before LSU plays in what Rece Davis will no doubt dub the "game of the century," they have to beat the defending national champions.

Then they can focus on heading to the No. 2 team's house.  Alabama has lost once at home in the past three years (last year, to Auburn), and have already opened as six-point favorites.

If LSU gets by the Tide, they get a cupcake in WKU and a trap game against Ole Miss. 

They will then close with a game against Arkansas, a rivalry that is quickly turning into one of the nation's best.  The teams have split the last six contests, and last year featured the largest margin of victory, a measly eight points.

If we are assuming that LSU wins the division, then they will have to play an SEC title game against most likely UGA or South Carolina, two teams they haven't faced.

A trip to Tuscaloosa alone qualifies them for this list.  Add in Auburn and Arkansas, and a potential SEC title game, and we realize that LSU isn't out of the woods yet.

Hardest: Kansas State

Remaining: at Kansas, Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, at Texas, Iowa State

Kansas State handed Baylor its first loss of the season.  Following that, the Wildcats won two more important swing games: at home against Missouri and on the road against once-beaten Texas Tech. 

As a result, they are 6-0, and 3-0 in the Big 12.  They are bowl eligible for the second straight season, and have a shot at the Big 12 title.

But they will have to run a tough gauntlet ahead.

They play four ranked teams in a row, with two on the road.  They also play two of the top four teams in the nation. Their defense will be tested against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, A&M and even Kansas this week.

They are 10.5-point favorites in the annual "Sunflower State Showdown" this weekend, but I don't expect them to then be favored in a game until their finale against Iowa State.