Sabathia to Red Sox Isn't Far-Fetched

Hardly anyone outside the Red Sox organization believes the team is serious about CC Sabathia, and even some inside the organization are skeptical.

Those doubts are well-founded: The Red Sox generally refrain from giving pitchers long-term contracts. They also relish mucking up the Yankees' pursuits, and Sabathia is the Yankees' No. 1 priority.

The Sox's plan to meet with Sabathia at the winter meetings, first reported by ESPN.com, might be just another case of Yankee Panky.

But think about it: Why wouldn't the Sox want CC?

Sabathia, 28, not only is the best pitcher in this year's free-agent market, but also might be the best for years to come.

The Red Sox do not need him as badly as they need first baseman Mark Teixeira, not with Manny Ramirez gone and David Ortiz possibly past his prime.

However, Teixeira is hardly certain to land in Boston, and Sox general manager Theo Epstein excels at shifting course quickly. Like the Angels, the other favorites for Teixeira, Epstein likely views Sabathia as an attractive Plan B — particularly if Teixeira, 28, insists upon a 10-year deal.

Sabathia, a native of Vallejo, Calif., would prefer to join a team in California, but if the Angels sign Teixeira, such an option might not be available. He conceivably could return to the Brewers, but his willingness to at least consider the Red Sox is intriguing. It's not as if Sabathia needs the Sox to jack up his price; the Yankees' first offer, $140 million, would be a record for a starting pitcher.

Both Teixeira and Sabathia fit the Sox's preference for younger free agents, but Epstein almost certainly would not go to six years on Sabathia, which is what the Yankees offered. Yet, the Sox gave right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka a six-year deal at 26. And they've shown interest in another free-agent right-hander, A.J. Burnett, who is looking for five.

"There will be pitchers signed to free-agent deals who go on and are worth every penny and more, dominate for years to come," Epstein told the Boston media this week. "We're interested in a lot of those pitchers, but we have an approach and we'll probably stick with it."

Fair enough, especially considering the long-term health concerns surrounding both Sabathia and Burnett — and every other living, breathing starting pitcher, for that matter.

Burnett's injury history is well-documented; Sabathia has been far more durable. Still, Sabathia underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee at the end of the '06 season. Some rival executives wonder if his 290-pound frame will lead to further breakdowns. And several teams were disturbed by his workload last season with the Indians and especially the Brewers, who pitched him on short rest in each of his final four starts.

But ask Josh Beckett, Jonathan Papelbon and Jon Lester — the Red Sox rank among the game's best at designing pitching regimens and keeping pitchers healthy. What's more, the Red Sox could use an innings-eating ace to help reduce the pressure on their younger pitchers.

Matsuzaka is not that guy, at least not yet. Beckett, even in his healthiest seasons, barely clears 200 innings. Lester stands a good chance of becoming a workhorse, if he isn't already. But Lester is not yet 25, and the Red Sox want to keep his pitch counts and innings totals within reason.

Enter Sabathia.

Beckett is two years away from free agency, or maybe even one if the Sox decline his option for 2010. Future free-agent markets, meanwhile, will offer little in the way of solutions.

The Angels' John Lackey will be the top free-agent starter available next offseason, assuming that teams exercise club options for several other top pitchers (including Beckett).

The Blue Jays' Roy Halladay and Diamondbacks' Brandon Webb could become free agents after the 2010 season, but both have shown at least some desire to remain with their present clubs. Both also could be traded to high-revenue teams that could sign them to contract extensions before they hit the open market.

The Giants' Matt Cain, Tigers' Justin Verlander and Yankees' Chien-Ming Wang loom as the top free-agent pitchers in '11. The Cubs' Carlos Zambrano, Phillies' Cole Hamels and Astros' Roy Oswalt all could be free agents in '12. But by then, Barack Obama will either have been re-elected or voted out of office.

Do I think the Red Sox will land Sabathia? No. The Yankees' $140 million proposal is only their first offer, and the Red Sox are unlikely to go to such extremes. Still, this is not Johan Santana all over again. The Sox hemmed and hawed over Santana, but ultimately were unwilling to acquire him for premium young talent and sign him to a record contract. In this case, the only cost is the contract, plus a first-round draft pick.

The best guess is that the Red Sox will end up with Teixeira and sign free-agent right-hander Derek Lowe, 35, to a short-term, high-dollar deal. But free agency is full of surprises, and the Red Sox are strong enough financially to assume greater risks, knowing they can cover mistakes.

Sabathia is not someone to be ignored.

This article originally published on FOXSports.com.

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