BCS Rankings: How Many Berths Does Each Conference Deserve in 2011?

The first BCS Standings are now released, and the SEC and Big 12 like what they see with the Top 4 slots dedicated to those two conferences. Considering that those conferences are considered the best two in college football, this recognition is well deserved.

But how many BCS berths should each of these conferences receive when the final BCS standings arrive in December? Although each conference is limited by BCS rules to a maximum of two berths, this question does not require us to follow the rules.

If a conference deserves three bids, and seemingly every season one does, then that will be reflected in the following list. Going from the lowest ranked conference on Real Time RPI to the highest, here is how many BCS berths each conference deserves in 2011.

Sun Belt, WAC and MAC: 0

These three conferences are widely considered the outsiders in the Football Bowl Subdivision. Outside of Boise State, which is now in the Mountain West, these conferences have achieved zero BCS bowl berths.

2011 is no different as each conference has struggled mightily in non-conference play. Only the Mid American Conference has achieved better than 40 percent wins in the out-of-conference slate, and just barely at 21-30 (41 percent).

Additionally, these three conferences combined have one team with fewer than two losses. That team is Louisiana Lafayette at 6-1, and there is absolutely zero chance a team from any of these conferences will ever make the BCS with one loss.

Thus, the three bottom conferences in college football have played their way out of any consideration for BCS berths as usual.

Conference USA, Mountain West, Independents: 0

The middle tier of Football Bowl Subdivision conferences is defined by the independents and the two conferences that recently agreed to make a 22-team superconference starting next season. These conferences are the most likely to break into the BCS, as evidenced by the recent success of Boise State, TCU and Utah (prior to their move to the Pac-12).

Similar to the lower tier of conferences below them, these conferences need undefeated teams to break into the BCS. That list is already down to two teams: Boise State and Houston. Both teams succeed on the backs of two great quarterbacks—Kellen Moore at Boise and Case Keenum at Houston.

Boise State is ranked fifth in the initial BCS standings, but the only solid win that Boise State will have on their schedule was the opening game against Georgia. The Broncos will be hurt significantly by early stumbles by Wyoming and, especially, TCU.

Case Keenum will likely set some NCAA passing records this year, but the Cougars will not go undefeated if they continue to play poor defense. Houston barely escaped in three of their six wins already, so, tough closing games against SMU and Tulsa might finish the undefeated dream.

If Boise State wins out, and they should, then they will receive a BCS berth. However, they do not deserve a BCS berth based on their conference peers.

Big East: 1

The next three conferences are very close in conference RPI rating, but the Big East comes in at sixth with a 25-13 out-of-conference mark. The Big East teams must play five non-conference games as a result of their short conference schedule, so even the best teams in the conference have played one or two quality games outside the Big East.

The difference between the Big East and the Mountain West is thin, but the Big East is deeper overall and outperformed the Mountain West significantly in non-conference play. Even though there are no teams left that are undefeated in the Big East, the conference deserves one BCS berth based on the strong results in away-from-conference play.

West Virginia, Rutgers and Cincinnati are the front runners for the BCS berth with only one loss apiece. Each of these losses has been against quality competition (LSU, North Carolina and Tennessee, respectively). Whichever team survives the conference gauntlet will have earned a BCS berth.

The future of the Big East may be uncertain, but the BCS berth is secure and deserved this season.

Pacific 12: 1

Although the Pac-12 has the worst non-conference record of all the automatic qualifiers at 20–12 (63 percent), they still rank above the Big East in RPI. Furthermore, the Pac-12 has two serious contenders for BCS bowls in Stanford and Oregon.

The Ducks have flopped on the big stage recently with high-profile losses to Boise State, Ohio State, Auburn and LSU. Stanford took full advantage of their first opportunity in the BCS last season by pounding Virginia Tech, which will resonate with BCS bowls when Stanford is in the mix this season.

Stanford and Oregon are in the same division of the new 12-team alignment, so both might make it into the BCS if Oregon defeats Stanford and both teams end up with one loss. However, the bottom end of the conference is really bad with the likes of Colorado, Arizona and Oregon State filling these schedules.

Accordingly, the Pac-12 only deserves one BCS berth. If Stanford defeats Oregon this season, one bid is exactly what the conference will receive.

ACC: 1

The ACC has racked up 29 wins in 40 non-conference games, which ranks third best at 73 percent. However, the conference has won only one BCS bowl in recent memory and continually beats itself with parity.

Clemson and Georgia Tech were the surprise stories of the season through last weekend, although the Yellow Jackets dropped their first game at Virginia this weekend. However, Clemson continues to be strong at 7-0 with one of the best three-game winning streaks in the country against Auburn, Florida State and Virginia Tech.

Clemson has a long way to go with road games at Georgia Tech and South Carolina joining a likely rematch against Virginia Tech in the conference championship. However, the winner of the Tigers and the Hokies will certainly deserve a shot in a BCS bowl, likely the Orange Bowl.

Even if both teams win out, the conference will not deserve two BCS bowl bids until they can prove that they can win the one they get every season.

Big Ten: 2

Although the Big Ten actually ranks fourth in non-conference records with a 72 percent win percentage, the conference appears to be deeper than the ACC and the Pac-12 with the addition of Nebraska. The Big Ten also has the most teams in the initial BCS top 25 rankings with six (Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan State, Penn State, Michigan and Illinois).

Barring a total collapse, Wisconsin is a shoe-in for another BCS bowl this year. The more intriguing question is which other team will rise from the ashes to grab the second BCS berth that the conference is so accustomed to.

Michigan State has to play Wisconsin twice to get to the BCS, but could force their way in if they win the conference championship even if they lose this weekend. Nebraska may be the better bet assuming the Cornhuskers can knock off Michigan State and have only one or two losses to Wisconsin. Penn State also cannot be counted out after four years away from the BCS scene, especially considering that teams which finish second in a stronger division usually end up better off than conference championship losers.

It is unclear which team will step up, but the Big Ten deserves two BCS slots again.

SEC: 3

The best conference in college football is flexing its muscle once again this year with an 88 percent success rate in non-conference play. The SEC falls below the Big 12 in the RPI based mostly on the weakness of the Mississippi teams and Kentucky.

The top tier is still loaded though, as LSU and Alabama will likely both make BCS bowls despite having to play one another later this year. But those two are not the only teams deserving of a BCS berth.

Georgia has bounced back nicely from a disastrous 0–2 start, South Carolina keeps slipping through despite the loss of Stephen Garcia and Marcus Lattimore and Arkansas and Auburn are keeping the West Division a tough place to play. One of those teams will have a legitimate claim when they are left out of the BCS picture in two months based on surviving the toughest conference in America.

Boise State will thank the SEC and the BCS for keeping the two-team limit in place, as a team like the Broncos would always get bumped otherwise for a well traveling SEC school.

Big 12: 2

The Big 12 may have lost Nebraska and Colorado (not much of a loss, apparently), but they have gained a round-robin that ensures each of these high powered teams plays one another during the regular season. Oklahoma, OSU and Kansas State are the stories so far with each team undefeated going into late October.

If Kansas State can steal one of the two games coming up against the Oklahoma schools, then they should be rewarded if they finish 11-1.  The Big 12 won a shocking 90 percent of non-conference games, which pushed them above the SEC in conference RPI. Furthermore, the bottom tier of the conference is much stronger than other major conferences, as Iowa State and Kansas proved they could play well away from the Big 12.

All of these accolades may make it seem like the Big 12 should actually receive three bids while the SEC or the Big Ten receive one fewer. However, the recent track record of the conference compared to the Big Ten and the SEC does not lend itself to putting a third team in over a second team from the Big Ten or a third team from the SEC. Those conferences are a bit too deep to knock them down in favor of a likely three-loss team in the Big 12.

So that wraps up the BCS bowl berths. Thanks for reading and we will see you next time!