Tom Brady's Record-Setting Pace a Bad Sign for New England Patriots

The Patriots are coming off a euphoric 20-16 victory over the Dallas Cowboys that saw them struggle offensively the entire game, but have Tom Brady pull one of his patented fourth-quarter comeback drives to take the lead with a little over 20 seconds remaining.

The Patriots currently stand at 5-1 through six weeks of the season, and in prime position to win the AFC East after the Bills slipped up versus the Giants.

It looks like another one of the Patriots' consistent winning seasons, with the Patriots on their way to another playoff berth, with a division title likely by the time January rolls around.

Brady is having an excellent season as usual, and he's on his way to one of the best seasons of his career. Brady has thrown for 16 TDs, 2163 yards and has averaged 9.1 yards per attempt through six games, which would be a career-high if he ended the season with that number.

Until being held to 20 points by the Cowboys' 3-4 defense, the Patriots were on the verge of tying, and eventually breaking the St Louis Rams' streak of 14 consecutive games with at least 30 points scored.

As of the current moment, the Patriots currently ranked third in PPG, first in passing yards per game and first in total yards per game.

So what is the problem with Brady having a record-setting pace?

This slideshow will list those very reasons.

The Turnovers

Tom Brady has already thrown eight interceptions through six games. When was the last time Brady averaged more than one interception per game? It has never happened through a full season.

There is no doubt that Brady's terrible four-interception game against the Bills skews those statistics, but Brady is nowhere near as efficient at taking care of the ball as he was last season, or in previous seasons.

Brady's INT percentage is at a 3.4. His career-high was a 3.0 set in 2004. His career-high since becoming a stat machine under the McDaniels shotgun spread offense? A 2.3 set in 2009 after he had just recovered from a season-ending injury in 2009.

With a defense that ranks last in the NFL in passing and total yards allowed, along with a ranking of 30th when it pertains to first downs allowed, Brady has to take care of the ball. The Patriots can get away with it in the regular season, but they cannot get away with it in the postseason.

The Patriots currently rank 17th in the NFL in takeaway/giveaway differential with a +1 differential.

What was their rankings during their Super Bowl seasons? Ninth, second and eighth respectively.

It is essential that the Patriots take better care of the ball. In order to do that, the Patriots need to be less reliant upon Brady. Which leads me to...

The Lack of Balance on Offense

During the Patriots' Super Bowl run of the early 2000's, outside of the season they had Corey Dillon, the Patriots never had a great running back.

However, that did not stop them from running the football. They ranked eighth in 2001, 12th in 2003 and fifth in 2004 in rushing attempts. The Patriots had a balance to the offense that set the table for the play-action fake, wore down defenders and taking care of the ball.

The Patriots of the past five years have been a completely different offense in that they operate in a shotgun spread offense, with a no-huddle element being a more recently used element to their attack.

The Pats currently rank 13th in rushing attempts. In order to keep the turnovers down, the Pats need to run the football just a little bit more.

By relying upon Brady so much, no matter how great of a QB he is, it makes for a predictable offense that gets shut down when Brady gets shut down.

Case in point? Divisional Playoffs versus the Jets. Wild Card Playoff versus the Ravens.

A team can't rely on one player to win them games every week. That is what the Patriots have been doing for the past couple of years.

The History

Tom Brady's career can be broken down into three eras.

Brady has always been a great quarterback, but he was an underrated quarterback when the Patriots won three Super Bowls in between the years of 2001-2004. He was seen as a clutch quarterback who was a product of the system, and was not truly seen as Manning's equal until after his third Super Bowl victory.

This was the second era of Brady's career which was during the 2005 and 2006 seasons. During the 2005 season, Brady led the league in passing yards and proved that he could carry a team the way Manning could, by leading the Patriots to the playoffs and an AFC East crown, despite the defense ranking 17th in points allowed and 26th in yards allowed.

Brady proceeded to carry an offense completely devoid of talent with Reche Caldwell and Ben Watson as his top receiving options to an AFC Championship game appearance in 2006.

The third and current era of Brady's career began in 2007.

After the revelation of "Spygate," the Patriots developed a new attitude that was basically an "us against the world mentality." They proceeded to stomp on their competition, dominate them in every way imaginable and just not give a damn about what anybody thought of them.

I don't have a problem with that, because it's football. However, look at the traits that the Patriots have developed since that point in time.

This was the season that Brady broke the passing TD record set by Peyton Manning just three years earlier, and the first season where he was awarded the MVP trophy.

Have you noticed what the Patriots haven't done since 2007? Win a Super Bowl.

Since they started utilizing the shotgun spread offense, where they go out on an all out passing rampage with Brady, it has led to some of the best regular seasons in Patriots history, but playoff disappointment year after year.

Do you remember the mystique that the Patriots once had when they had their dynasty? Do you remember when Brady and the Patriots were 10-0 in the postseason to begin Brady's career? The best ever mark in the history of the game?

That feels like a long time ago.

The history shows the Patriots were a much better team when they played a disciplined style of football instead of a re-enactment of an Arena Football league game.

The Patriots have not won a postseason game since the 2007 AFC Championship game versus the Chargers.

Which brings me to my next point.

The Opposition

I think Tom Brady is on his way to becoming the greatest quarterback of all time. He has three Super Bowl rings, two MVP trophies, two Super Bowl MVPs and numerous statistical records to make his heavy resume even more impressive.

However, the statistical accomplishments that he has accumulated over the years have come at a price. It's come at the expense of a fourth Super Bowl trophy.

Here is the thing about the Patriots. They are too heavily reliant upon Brady, and have been since the 2007 season.

Brady was always a great quarterback, but it was not until 2007 that people truly believed that he was the best quarterback in the league.

Brady became a whole different animal because for the first time in his career, he had legit receiving options to cement just how great of a quarterback he was. People had always doubted him because he never put up the stats that Manning put up, but the greatness was always there.

People tend to forget the 2002 season where he led the league in passing TDs with Troy Brown, David Givens and Deion Branch as his top receiving options. They forget the great 2005 season where he led the league in passing yards with a similar supporting cast.

It wasn't until he had possibly the greatest season by a quarterback in NFL history when he threw for 50 touchdowns, helped Randy Moss break the receiving TDs record in a single season and proceeded to go 18-0 before coming up one game short of the perfect season, that people started placing him over Manning.

The problem with this is it created the belief in Belichick and Brady's minds that this is the best route to go. It created the belief that Brady can single-handedly carry a team to a Super Bowl victory.

That mindset is completely wrong and here is the reason why.

The Patriots dominate the regular season, but always slip up in the postseason? Why is that?

Because of this dependency upon Brady and the passing game, great defenses, mainly those of the 3-4 family, wreak havoc and disrupt the rhythm and timing of the Patriots' offense.

Case in point? Yesterday's game against the Dallas Cowboys. Brady struggled to move the ball in this game more than any other game this season. He threw two touchdowns, but also threw two interceptions, notched an 82.3 quarterback rating, was sacked three times and only averaged 7.0 yards per pass attempt.

The quarterback rating and the yards per attempt were all season lows. And more importantly, the Patriots scored just 20 points. Did they win the game? Yes.

But they've done that countless times in years past during the regular season. The Cowboys are a good team. They are not a great team.

What the Cowboys exposed yesterday has been a weakness in the Patriots for the past several years. They struggle against the 3-4 defense.

The 3-4 Defense

The Patriots lost in the worst way they have ever lost in the postseason in the Belichick/Brady era in the 2009 Wild Card Playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens. They lost in a huge upset versus the Cleveland Browns in November of 2010. New England lost to the Jets in the Divisional Playoffs of 2010. The Pats struggled mightily against a good, but not great Cowboys defense.

What is the one trait that all of these teams share? They all line up in the 3-4 base defense. They all have strong influences from the Ryan family tree because both Rex and Rob Ryan have coached these teams.

If you give Tom Brady time to throw the football, you are absolutely screwed. There is nobody in this league other than Aaron Rodgers who can dissect a defense the way Brady can if given time to throw the football. How do you get Brady rattled? You put pressure on him.

No defense is better at doing this than the Ryan family 3-4 defense.

By confusing Brady with numerous defensive looks, where he isn't sure who's coming and who's dropping back, it completely disrupts the Patriot offense, which is completely dependent upon timing and rhythm.

Wes Welker is a great receiver who has improved tremendously every year that he has been a Patriot. However, he is still a possession receiver, and he still catches a lot of his passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. The Patriots run a lot of hitch routes, a lot of screens and a lot of slant routes that are completely reliant upon timing.

A 3-4 defense disrupts that timing by frequently putting pressure on Brady. It also disrupts that timing by jamming small receivers, such as Branch and Welker, off of the line of scrimmage, forcing Brady to hold the ball an extra second longer, which forces further pressure on Brady.

By dropping back defensive lineman on occasion in zone coverage and sending fast, athletic LBs/DE's such as Demarcus Ware on blitzes or off of the edge on Brady, it messes up the Patriots' offensive game plan.

The Patriots struggled mightily against the Cowboys and their 3-4 defense. You wanna beat the Patriots in the postseason? You better either be the Jets, Ravens, Steelers or the Cowboys. You have to have a 3-4 defense that sends multiple blitz packages in order to rattle a composed veteran quarterback such as Brady.

Until the Patriots change their offensive style back to the way it was from 2001-2004, where they created the perfect balance on offense, and kept the turnovers to a minimum, it will be hard for the Patriots to win the Super Bowl.

Time of Possession

And lastly, but not least, time of possession.

Other than turnover/giveaway differential, this may be the best statistic to use to indicate a team's success.

The Patriots utilize a shotgun/no-huddle offense to keep the defense off balance, where they rely heavily upon Brady's short passing game to move the yards. This is a basic substitution to the run game.

The problem with this is when the short passing game is disrupted, as I explained in the previous slide, this stops the clock and results in no yardage gained. At least when it's a running play that gains only two yards, the chains move and the clock keeps running. It also wears down the defense more than an incomplete pass would.

In 2003, the Patriots ranked eighth in time of possession. In 2004, with the addition of Corey Dillon, they ranked sixth in the NFL.

In 2010, when the Patriots became more reliant upon Brady's talents more than ever with the departure of Randy Moss and utilization of young tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, the Patriots ranked 22nd in the NFL.

In 2011? They're not much better at 19th.

Do you realize the trend here?

In 2007, the Patriots became the greatest offense in NFL history. They started utilizing more shotgun spread formations, where they often utilized three and four receiver sets. This is a trend that continues today.

Ever since Brady debuted in 2001, the Patriots have always relied on the short passing game to move the chains. It is one of the reasons why Patriots receivers have always had a high yards after catch number during the Brady era. This type of passing game is dictated entirely upon rhythm and timing. If timing is disrupted by just less than a second, the whole play is shattered.

In 2010, the Patriots lacked talent almost more than ever. The defense was terrible, the Patriots really had no receivers outside of Wes Welker, but they had the best quarterback in the game in Tom Brady.

2011 is no different than 2010. The defense is still terrible. Chad Ochocinco has been non-existent in the passing game. Welker is still the only great receiver the Patriots have. The running game is not utilized enough to create more balance and time of possession on offense.

What happens when a defense is already terrible and they're on the field the majority of every game? They give up even more yardage. They give up even more big plays. This is the reason why the Patriots ranked last in the league in yardage given up.

Until the Patriots go back to the balance that made them Super Bowl champions years ago, where they had a great defense and where they had a mediocre running game but continued to pound the ball, the Patriots will always be a great regular season team that falters against the great defenses of the postseason.

That is the reason why Tom Brady's record setting pace is a bad sign for the Patriots.