BCS Rankings Fact or Fiction: Standings Are Perfect Just the Way They Are

The first BCS standings were released Sunday night, setting the table for the “real season” to begin.

Seconded in diabolical man vs. machine undertones only to Deep Blue's bouts with Gary Kasparov, the BCS computers yet again displayed their unintelligible algorithmic prowess to an eager, frothing nation.

So what are we to make of these initial rankings?

Well, if you're Houston or Boise State, these standings will only serve to depress. What do you have to do to get respect? Move to the Big 12?

If you're in the Pac-12 North, consider splitting off entirely from the mostly-hapless Pac-12 South to improve your strength of schedule. It's the only way Stanford and Oregon will break the top-5 in the future. 

If you're the SEC, life is good. Two teams in the top spots? I can't wait to watch a regular-season repeat in the national title game. Who needs TiVo? 

If you're Oklahoma State, consider sending the BCS computers some flowers. Try to reciprocate their bizarre crush as soon as possible. There's no telling how they'll feel about you are upset.

Same goes for you, Texas.

It's early, but that's never an excuse to lay off dissection. To pass the time until the teams put their new rankings on the line next weekend, how about a game of fact or fiction? Did the BCS get it right? Are the standings perfect just the way they are?

Follow me as we evaluate the BCS Top 10 choices.  

No. 25-11: Fiction

Before we get to the Top 10, a quick look at the rest of the field.

Of these 15, only No. 24 Texas doesn't belong. The Longhorns are 4-2, and yet lack a signature win over a good team. They got their chance with both Oklahoma squads at home, but looked outclassed in two convincing losses.

After weeks of uncertainty at quarterback, Mack Brown finally found his man, going with freshman David Ash over Case McCoy and the transferring Garrett Gilbert.

Texas is unranked in both USA Today and Harris polls, yet the computers have them at 19. In the human polls, the Longhorns have a combined 103 points, the lowest of the Top 25. To put that in perspective, No.1 LSU has 4,229.

With No. 11 Kansas State, Baylor and No. 17 Texas A&M still to play, there is a chance Texas can live up to that ranking, but otherwise they are misplaced in the BCS standings.

As for the other teams, none really merit eviction, just realignment.

No. 14 South Carolina will fall after they begin to feel the consequences of losing Marcus Lattimore. Houston should (and will) be ranked higher as they continue to advance undefeated. Kansas State has a nice win over Baylor, but will fall after playing No. 3 Oklahoma and No. 4 Oklahoma State in the next few weeks

The computers have No. 20 Auburn at 14 while the human polls have them in the low 20s, and again I agree with humanity.

The Tigers have problems at QB too big to ignore, so their No. 20 rating might be a bit high. I would put No. 13 Nebraska ahead of No. 12 Virginia Tech, and move No. 18 Michigan down a few pegs while raising up No. 15 West Virginia.  

No. 10 Oregon Ducks: Fact

After surviving a shootout with the Sun Devils last weekend, the Ducks seem a fair choice for the 10-spot. They feature one of the best running attacks in the game, and will spread you out through the air. Their loss to LSU looks more and more acceptable as the Tigers continue to roll. 

Losing LaMichael James for a few games shouldn't hurt them badly unless he still can't go when the Ducks head to Palo Alto. Without him the offense was still able to put up points against an underrated Arizona State defense, and should continue to do so against Colorado.

While Oregon was the 2010 runner-up, the 2011 title game seems an unreachable goal now. The best the Ducks can hope for is a shot at the Rose Bowl, and to do that they'll have to beat the No. 8 Cardinal, not to mention a feisty No. 25 Washington squad.

Their sheer offensive firepower masks questions on defense which good teams will exploit.  

No. 9 Arkansas Razorbacks: Fact

The Razorbacks fully deserve a Top 10 spot with big wins already over Auburn and Texas A&M. Alabama did dismantle them for their only loss of the season, but other than that, Arkansas has made a tough SEC even tougher.

Tyler Wilson deserves to be in the best college QB discussion whenever it is held. He throws for just under 300 yards per game, and leads the SEC with 1779 total passing yards. His 64.9 completion percentage is highest among SEC QBs with more than 200 attempts and third in the conference overall.

With Wilson at the helm the Razorbacks haven't needed a running game, and that might cost them when teams try to take the passing game away. The rest of their games should be winnable until their regular-season finale against No. 1 LSU.

If the Tigers can walk away from No. 2 Alabama with a win, don't be surprised if Arkansas spoils their title hopes.  

No. 8 Stanford Cardinal: Fiction

Has any team from an AQ conference gone undefeated quieter than Stanford? The Cardinal haven't exactly played the most challenging opening schedule (San Jose State, Duke), but that doesn't mean they haven't looked good doing it.

Andrew Luck has done nothing to diminish his position as the nation's best college quarterback. David Shaw has said repeatedly that Luck could play most any role on the field, be it at wideout or linebacker, and I'm inclined to believe him.

His Cardinal will be tested in the coming weeks when they have to take on No. 25 Washington, USC and No. 10 Oregon.

I personally call this ranking fiction because they should be higher. I'd put Stanford at five instead of Boise State, and move No. 4 Oklahoma State, No. 7 Clemson and No. 6 Wisconsin down.

Stanford is hurt right now by its weak first half to the schedule, but if they continue to win during the meatier portion and LSU/Alabama, Oklahoma State and Clemson all predictably fall, Stanford could sneak in to the national title picture.  

No. 7 Clemson Tigers: Fiction

The Tigers are undefeated, and with wins over Auburn, Virginia Tech and Florida State they fully deserve a Top 10 nod. Sophomore Tajh Boyd is recording Heisman-like numbers, already with 19 touchdowns and over 2000 yards passing under his belt.

The problem for me is their defense which is 42^nd in the nation, giving up 23.1 points per game. Against an average Maryland team we saw that defense give up 45 points before Boyd and Sammy Watkins were able to gun them down.

If the Terrapins can put up big numbers against the Tigers, No. 22 Georgia Tech and Wake Forest should be able to in coming weeks. And don't forget the 21 they surrendered to mighty Wofford in the first half.

Clemson has been riding by the seat of their pants for too long, and sooner or later they're going to fall.

The only question is when.

The Tigers deserve to be in the Top 10 due to their wins in this type of schedule, but should not stay there for very long. No. 8 Stanford, a more balanced team on both sides of the ball, should have been ranked ahead of them, but the computer has them at five despite eights from USA Today and Harris.  

No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers: Fact

Wisconsin should be the poster child for BCS success. Is there a better way to raise your standing with the computers than by blowing out your opponents while barely allowing points against? The Badgers are first in the nation with a 50.2 points per game average, and third in allowing only 9.7 points per game.

Surprisingly, this has impressed us more than the computers. Wisconsin is 11^th according to the digital third of the BCS, despite garnering fours from humanity. It's difficult to put their undefeated record in perspective. Blowout wins over Northern Illinois and South Dakota should impress no one, yet here they are. 

I think what shows during the eyeball test is the completeness in which the Badgers offense is running. Wisconsin has equally-potent options on the ground as they do on the air. Montee Ball has scored two or more rushing touchdowns in each game this season, while Russell Wilson has thrown for 14 scores and only one pick. 

The Badgers are entering the tougher part of their schedule with No. 16 Michigan State, No. 23 Illinois and Penn State all left to play, so it will be interesting to see if they can continue blowing out teams.

If they do, and finish the season undefeated, they should have a shot at the title game. Unfortunately, they play in the Big Ten and had a joke of a non-conference schedule, so in that scenario the Badgers would most likely be on the outside looking in.

No. 5 Boise State Broncos: Fiction

Based on their performances year after year, Boise deserves this spot. Based on their performances this season, with the kind of schedule they have, it's a little high. 

It pains me to tell Bronco loyalists that their soft schedule will once again doom their title hopes even if they go undefeated, but it's the truth. We've already seen Boise leave the WAC for the Mountain West specifically to combat this, and could see the move again soon.

The problem is that this season many teams could probably go undefeated, putting the focus not on wins, but on schedule strength to determine who outranks who among the unbeatens.

The Broncos have a good team with Kellen Moore already racking up 21 touchdown tosses. Their win against Georgia looks better and better as the Bulldogs fight for a conference title.

But that's their only win over a ranked opponent. They will face no others for the rest of the season, with TCU and San Diego State their most fearsome foes.

I love the underdogs, and the 2007 Fiesta Bowl will always have a special place in my heart, but this year Boise State will again be denied a shot at the title. Too many undefeated teams will have better resumés.

No. 4 Oklahoma State Cowboys: Fiction

Ranked No. 1 by the computers, OSU has yet to fully impress human eyes—ranked sixth by both USA Today and Harris Polls. The Cowboys are undefeated, but needed to comeback from 17 down against No. 17 Texas A&M to keep it that way.

What has kept Oklahoma State in games has been their passing game. Ranked second in the nation with 395.7 yards per game through the air, the Cowboys put up 49.2 points per game—a number most opposing offenses can't keep up with.

Senior Brandon Weeden has thrown for just under 2,100 yards in six games and is the main reason the Cowboys are in the title hunt.

While putting up big scoring numbers looks good on paper, Wisconsin has been doing that all season against opposition that isn't much worse. OSU has beaten two ranked opponents in No. 24 Texas and the Aggies, but Texas isn't what it once was, and the Aggies choked away a big lead.

I think No. 6 Wisconsin is the more complete team offensively, but since they lack wins over ranked opponents they get the lesser rank. 

OSU shouldn't be tested until their Dec. 3 showdown with No. 3 Oklahoma. For better or for worse, one team's title dreams will end in Stillwater.

Speaking of the Sooners...

No. 3 Oklahoma State Sooners: Fact

The preseason No. 1's have done little to stain their initial prediction. USA Today still has them at the top, while the Harris Poll and associated computers have dropped them to three and four respectively.

Landry Jones still slings the ball as well as anyone in the country with almost 2,200 yards and 16 touchdowns to his name. The problem is the running game, with Dominique Whaley inconsistent during long stretches.

While their two wins over Florida State and No. 22 Texas have degraded in value as the season moves on, going into Tallahassee and beating the Seminoles in a high-profile game is still an impressive accomplishment.

More apt tests seem to be on the horizon with No. 11 Kansas State, No. 17 Texas A&M and Baylor itching for their shot.

The Sooners should be able to pass through them, but the regular-season finale against pass-happy No. 4 Oklahoma State will be a different matter. Look for that match to potentially decide who gets a ticket to New Orleans. 

Oklahoma was ranked highly in the preseason and have done nothing to contradict that, so I have no problem with them remaining in the top three. The only reason that they find themselves out of the top spot here is that two SEC teams have just been better.

No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide: Fact

In seven games, Alabama has beaten three ranked opponents by a combined score of 103-35. They have made Tyler Wilson look mortal and Florida look slow, all the while doing it in typical Crimson Tide smash-mouth style.

While it is difficult to pinpoint statistically what has made the Tide so effective offensively, no such struggle exists on the defensive side. Alabama ranks first in average points allowed (7.0), first in total defense (184.14 yards per game), and first in rushing defense (38.14 yards per game).

Bottom line: you had best pass against the Tide.

What doesn't show up on the stat sheet is the sheer physicality and swagger Nick Saban has his men playing with. There is penetration on almost every down, and the linebackers simply cannot be beaten on outside stretch runs. With such dominant defensive play, the offense has needed to be consistent rather than explosive to win. 

If Alabama runs the table, they will be playing for the national title. That being said, there is one game that could unravel it all, one game on Nov. 5 against...

No. 1 LSU Tigers: Fact

Undoubtedly one of the best teams in college football, the Tigers get the top spot with double-digit wins over Oregon, Mississippi State, Florida and West Virginia. Their schedule features seven ranked opponents, including an epic showdown with Alabama in a few weeks.

What's fascinating about LSU is that they have done it without putting up big numbers. In fact, their passing game ranks 100th in the nation, with Jarrett Lee barely cracking the 1,000-yard mark after seven games.

Their rushing offense has a fantastic one-two punch with Spencer Ware and Michael Ford averaging 194.4 rushing yards per game, but even that is only good enough for 30th in the country.

So how do they do it? How do the Tigers post 38.4 points per game?

Turnovers. LSU forces them and doesn't give them away. With more opportunities to score than their opponents, its a simple road to success. The Tigers have forced 16 turnovers this season while only giving up three themselves.

This team does not make many mistakes, and makes those who do pay. It helps that their defense only allows 11.7 points per game.

With one of the toughest schedules in college football and the top spot in the BCS, LSU controls its own fate. A home game in New Orleans awaits if they can conquer the ultra-competitive SEC, with No. 2 Alabama waiting for them.

The Verdict: Fiction

While I agree with some of their choices—especially those at the top—overall the standings were a bit disappointing. The computers clearly overvalued some teams that have tough games ahead of them, haven't passed the eyeball test or are coasting on past successes.

That being said, it is only the first week. While I would prefer a playoff, the BCS has a way of getting itself out of jams to give us a convincing title game matchup more often than not. The title picture looks foggy now with so many undefeated teams, but not all of them will finish so.

The BCS has made their predictions, now it's time for the teams to play the games.