BCS Standings 2011: Bowl Outlook for Iowa Hawkeyes Football

The 2011 initial BCS Standings are out! The Big Ten is well-represented with six teams in the Top 25.

Of course, Iowa isn't one of them. No surprise right? I mean, the Hawkeyes are 4-2 with losses to Iowa State and Penn State. The latter loss wouldn't have hurt them too badly as the Nittany Lions are part of the BCS standings, but losing to Iowa State did them no favors.

Besides all of that, the Hawkeyes really haven't looked the part of a Top 25 team. Let's be honest here, the first three quarters of the Pittsburgh game were downright ugly, Penn State exposed Iowa horribly and even in their win against Northwestern they looked a bit shaky at times.

Does it really matter that Iowa isn't a part of the first standings?

No, not really. There's still a lot of football to be played and they could work their way into the discussion. However, the standings do largely dictate who goes bowling where and when.

Yes, it's way too early to be predicting these things, but it's just so darned fun, we've got to give it a shot.

Based on what we've seen from the Hawkeyes so far and what the standings are telling us, where will Iowa end up when the bowl pairings are announced?

Before we get there, here are the Big Ten teams that made the Top 25 and where they come in:

No. 6 Wisconsin

No. 13 Nebraska

No. 16 Michigan State

No. 18 Michigan

No. 21 Penn State

No. 23 Illinois

BCS Bowl

Let's start with what's mathematically still possible—however unlikely it may be.

Iowa is 4-2 at the moment. When they went to the FedEx Orange Bowl following the 2009 season, their record was 10-2.

Absolutely, that team was much better than the one Iowa is currently fielding and I don't want anyone to get the idea that I'm predicting this.

However, we're talking sheer mathematics here. There may be two undefeated teams left to play for the BCS Title, but it would be somewhat surprising if the number of one-loss teams dips very far into the standings. The competition this year is crazy and competitive.

It's entirely possible that there will be at least a couple of two-loss teams in the Top 10. If that's the case, why not Iowa? They will have had to have beaten Michigan, Michigan State and Nebraska to have gotten to that point and would have had to win the the Big Ten Championship game as well.

Again, this isn't even remotely likely, but it's still within the realm of possibility.

No Bowl

We've already talked about what's still mathematically possible. Now let's look at the other end of that spectrum.

It's possible that Iowa could be home for the holidays.

The Hawkeyes play Indiana and Minnesota in their next two outings. They should win both of those games and become bowl eligible. However, Iowa has had troubles with Indiana in the past and had a meltdown just last year against a Minnesota team that finished 3-9 on the year.

After those two games, things get considerably tougher.

The Hawks will have back-to-back games against Michigan State and Michigan (both ranked teams), then have to go on the road against a Purdue team that gave Penn State far more trouble than Iowa did. Finally, they have to go into Lincoln to take on No. 13 Nebraska.

It's not necessarily a given that Iowa will end up with six wins to even become eligible. It's far less given that they'll pick up the seven wins necessary to guarantee an appearance in the post-season.

Again, I wouldn't necessarily predict this outcome. I think Iowa has enough to get to seven wins, but I also wouldn't be overly confident in that prediction just yet.

Insight Bowl

Now that we've gotten the possible-but-unlikely scenarios out of the way, let's talk reality.

Realistically, the Insight might be the best destination for the Hawkeyes. The Insight gets fourth pick of the bowls this year with the Gator getting fifth.

Will Iowa rise as high as fourth in the conference? It may not look that way right now, but remember that some of the teams ahead of them still have to knock each other around a little too. Plus, the Hawkeyes get a shot at a couple more of them and could rise up the ranks.

I've already noted that Iowa takes on Indiana and Minnesota in their next two games. If they can beat both of those opponents—as they really should—they'll be 6-2 with a month of football left to play.

Beating Michigan, Michigan State or Nebraska is a tall order, but Iowa has yet to have a real breakout, statement game. I think they might just get one. I just don't know which one.

Even if they fail to beat any of the three ranked opponents left on their schedule, they have a showdown against Purdue that could lift them to seven wins. The Boilermakers are no safe bet, but they're considerably more likely than any of the other three.

It will take a little more growth—particularly on defense—for Iowa to be truly competitive with the upper tier of this conference, but they're just dangerous enough right now to play spoiler. A little extra improvement should be enough to potentially lift them over Purdue and get that seventh win.

An upset of just one of those bigger programs could put the Hawkeyes at 8-4 and that might be good enough to grab this spot.

At 8-4, I don't see Iowa going anywhere but back to Tempe. This is the best-case scenario and it could certainly be worse.

Meineke Car Care of Texas

The Big Ten is pitted against the Big 12 in this one on New Year's Eve. I may have misspoke in the previous slide. I'm not 100 percent sure which bowl gets last pick for talent. It might be this one.

Yes, Iowa travels really well and bowls typically love to have the Hawkeyes in town with their hordes of fans and all the money they spend on food, hotels, etc. However, they also want to sell their bowl to television markets, which means they need as sexy a draw as possible.

Unless Iowa really starts looking a bit better, they're not going to have bowl reps tripping over each other to invite the Hawkeyes to their game. That's just the way it works.

Having said all of that, don't expect an 8-4 Iowa team to end up here. This goes right along with Iowa being a 7-5 team and who they're in company with at that record.

Assuming that Wisconsin goes to the Rose Bowl, Nebraska (or Michigan State) goes to the Capital One, Michigan State (or Nebraska) goes to the Outback, Ohio State (or Michigan, or Illinois) goes to the Insight, Michigan (or Ohio State or Illinois) goes to the Gator—then that leaves Iowa in the company of Penn State and/or the "or" teams that didn't get picked above.

If bowl reps have a choice between Iowa, Michigan, Illinois or Penn State, who do you think they're going to take? My money isn't on the Hawkeyes.

Remember, the Big Ten has gotten two BCS bowls for a while now, but with the Big 12 playing so well, the SEC guaranteed to have two teams in the mix and the Big East still getting a BCS Bowl, there's no guarantee the Big Ten will continue that trend.

If they do, you can bump Iowa up one spot. If not however, the competition for bowl slots could get really, really interesting.

Ticket City Bowl

Played in the Cotton Bowl. This isn't the best possible outcome, but it's a very realistic one.

We're used to talking about BCS possibilities, Capital One appearances or Outback hopes. That's not very realistic right now.

There are six Big Ten teams in the initial BCS standings. Let's lay them out for a second as though the Big Ten season ends with every team finishing exactly where they are now. Where would they go?

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin

The Badgers are clearly the top team in the conference right now. It's not even a debate. The only thing that could change this outcome (besides losing the conference title game) would be if they managed to work their way into the BCS Championship Bowl.

Starting at No. 6 in the rankings, and with their remaining schedule, that's not likely.

BCS Bowl: Nebraska

Let's be really generous and make the assumption that the Big Ten will score a second BCS bowl. Since we're lining them up the way they're currently ranked, this would fall to the Cornhuskers.

Capital One Bowl: Michigan State

As it stands, the Spartans would miss out on the BCS hoopla once again, but would land in a very nice Capital One bowl on January 2, 2012.

Insight: Michigan

The Wolverines would get an opportunity to square off against an SEC opponent in January.

Gator: Penn State

Despite their offensive problems, the Nittany Lions are loved enough by the computers to put them in position to travel to Florida in January.

Meineke Car Care of Texas: Illinois

Despite a great start to their season, Illinois isn't greatly loved in the polls right now. Still, they're ranked. Iowa isn't. This is where the Illini might have landed if the season had ended this past weekend.

Ticketcity: ?

Little Caesar's Bowl: ?

So where does this leave Iowa? We also have to make a couple of easy assumptions.

First, this isn't how it will all eventually shake out. There are still five regular season games to be played by everyone. That's five more chances for Iowa to gain ground and for these others to lose some standing.

However, look at those teams. Can you confidently say that Iowa can beat out any of them? They've already lost to Penn State and the Lions would undoubtedly get a nod before Iowa should they be competing for a bowl spot.

The Ticketcity or Little Caesar's are the most likely scenarios, but I think Iowa would be the very next in line behind the teams already named. The crowd they bring is enough to push them that high.

It's not unrealistic to believe that Iowa can climb the ladder a little higher than where they currently are. They won't climb that high though. The competition is just too tough at this level and we haven't even begun to discuss Ohio State.

If the Hawkeyes can turn it up just a notch, they can still work their way to a January bowl game. If that's the case, look for it to be this one though. The competition at the top is just too much to strongly consider anything higher on the list.