BCS Rankings 2011: 5 Teams That Will Remain Stuck in BCS Limbo

Because the first rankings have been released, we now know exactly what the BCS bowls would look like if the 2011 season had ended on Saturday.

But the 2011 season didn't end on Saturday. We still have close to two months of drama to go through before we get to the end. Teams are going to rise, teams are going to fall and the BCS bowl projections are going to change every week.

There will also be teams who just linger. They're not going to fall out of the Top 25 in the BCS rankings, but they're not going to move high enough to be in the mix for a BCS bowl berth.

From where I'm sitting, there are five teams that we can expect to be stuck in this state, a kind of BCS limbo.

Auburn (No. 20)

Auburn's problem is that it plays in the SEC West, the same stomping grounds as LSU, Alabama and Arkansas. All three of them are in the top 10 in the initial BCS rankings, and all three promise to be in the final BCS rankings.

If I had to guess, the SEC will be represented in both the Sugar Bowl and the national title game. Auburn obviously isn't good enough to make the national title game, and the only way it is getting to the Sugar Bowl is if it's the second-highest ranked SEC team (i.e. Arkansas last year).

In order to even get to that point, Auburn will have to beat LSU and Alabama to make its two losses look better, which is not going to happen. The Tigers will be good enough to stick around in the Top 25, but not good enough to make a BCS bowl.

Houston (No. 19)

Houston's 6-0 record suggests the Cougars are pretty damn good. So do the BCS computers, which have Houston's average ranking at No. 16. The humans are the ones who are disrespecting the Cougars.

And that's not likely to change. Houston is a lot like Boise State, TCU, Utah and all other notable BCS busters is that they have done very well while playing what seems to be a very weak schedule. Humans don't like that.

The difference between Houston and the other schools, though, is that Houston doesn't have the name recognition quite yet. The Cougars will have to finish undefeated in order to be in the BCS mix, and I think they're going to be left out in the cold if Boise State also finishes undefeated.

Texas A&M (No. 17)

The Aggies are in a tricky spot. At this point, we should know that they are not a BCS team, but that's not entirely set in stone.

Texas A&M's problem is obvious: it already has two losses. That essentially means the Aggies must win the rest of their games, and then hope that they can sneak in to a BCS bowl via an at-large bid.

Which will be tricky. There are bound to be a number of one-loss teams that will be in better standing than Texas A&M, and there could very well be a two-loss team or, um, two that are also in better standing.

In other words, a lot would have to go right for Texas A&M to be in the mix for a BCS bowl.

Check that, too much would have to go right.

Nebraska (No. 13)

Nebraska's BCS dreams were all but shattered when the Cornhuskers lost to Wisconsin back on October 1st.

In order to rekindle those dreams, Nebraska pretty much has to make it to the Big Ten Championship Game and then win it. To even get there, Nebraska will likely have to win the rest of its games, which include showdowns with Big Ten Legends division foes Michigan State and Michigan.

If Nebraska does get to the Big Ten Championship Game, the Cornhuskers are probably looking at a rematch with Wisconsin.

That, my friends, will not go well.

No matter which way you spin it, Nebraska is just going to be one of those teams. They'll be good, but not good enough. Moreover, the overall mediocrity of the Big Ten will not help their cause.

Kansas State (No. 11)

I'm going to go out on a limb with this one. The Wildcats are 6-0 this season, and are a threat to snatch the Big 12 away from Oklahoma (or Oklahoma State if you're a Pokes fan). By all accounts, Kansas State is thus very good.

But I have my doubts. The Wildcats haven't played an easy schedule, but the hardest part is yet to come. Starting on October 29th, Kansas State plays consecutive games versus Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State, versus Texas A&M and at Texas.

With all respect to the Wildcats, I highly doubt they're going to come out the other end of this stretch unscathed. They're going to drop at least one game, maybe two or three.

If it's two or three, Kansas State will be out of the BCS picture. Even if it's one loss, I have a hard time seeing Kansas State being in better BCS standing than Oklahoma, Oklahoma State or both. I can see the Wildcats on the cusp of an at-large bid, but not quite good enough to get one.

Rank	Team	BCS Points
1	LSU	.9522
2	Alabama	.9519
3	Oklahoma	.930
4	Oklahoma State	.857
5	Boise State	.803
6	Wisconsin	.771
7	Clemson	.758
8	Stanford	.748
9	Arkansas	.626
10	Oregon	.619
11	Kansas State	.569
12	Virginia Tech	.505
13	Nebraska	.497
14	South Carolina	.491
15	West Virginia	.373
16	Michigan State	.329
17	Texas A&M	.308
18	Michigan	.300
19	Houston	.286
20	Auburn	.265
21	Penn State	.231
22	Georgia Tech	.197
23	Illinois	.152
24	Texas	.135
25	Washington	.087