BCS Standings 2011: Breaking Down the Nebraska Cornhuskers

Like a kid at Christmas, college football fans anxiously gather around the television in mid-October. They arrange their milk and cookies, hoping Brad Edwards will come through their TV screens and give the nice fans of the country a high BCS ranking for their favorite teams.

OK, the analogy might not hold up terribly well. But if it's early enough for the stores to have Christmas displays out, it's early enough to make bad analogies. Still, you know you've reached the business end of the college football season when the initial BCS rankings come out. So let's dig into the fruitcake we call the BCS and see how Nebraska came out.

How They Got Here

At the start of the season, most people (including one really bright guy you should be following) thought Nebraska would be 5-1, with a loss against Wisconsin in Madison. Nebraska is now 5-1, with a loss against Wisconsin in Madison.

But how NU got here has been a huge surprise. The defense, before the season started, was assumed to be the foundation on which Nebraska would rest while a new-look offense under rookie coordinator Tim Beck found its legs. Instead, the defense has been a disturbing flashback to the 2007 campaign, and the offense has bailed NU out of tricky situations against unexpected opposition.

Best Win

Nebraska 34, Ohio State 27. On Homecoming, Nebraska found itself behind 27-6 in the third quarter. Pundits locally and nationally began crafting the obituary of the 2011 Nebraska squad, making comparisons to Bill Callahan’s last year as head Husker.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the catastrophe. Lavonte David created a turnover, NU knocked the Buckeyes’ starting quarterback out of the game and Nebraska completed the greatest comeback in school history.

And keep in mind what was at stake. Nebraska had just been embarrassed by Wisconsin, 48-17, in its B1G conference opener. A second embarrassing loss, going into a bye week, could have created a poisonous atmosphere from which NU could struggle to recover. By completing the comeback, not only did NU get a good win, but it got a shot of confidence in the arm going into the second half of the season.

Nebraska’s 51-38 win over a suddenly-resurgent Washington team could end up looking pretty good. But for both the opponent and the significance, Nebraska's win over Ohio State takes the place of honor on the 2011 mantelpiece up to now.

BCS Ranking: 13

Nebraska starts out at lucky 13 in the inaugural BCS ranking. The Cornhuskers are 11th in the Harris Poll and 13th in the USA Today coaches’ poll, but are dragged down by their computer rankings which run from a high of 12 to a low of 17.

Nebraska is the second-highest ranked B1G team in the initial BCS standings, beneath Wisconsin (6) but ahead of Michigan State (16), Michigan (18), Penn State (21) and Illinois (23). And you could have made quite a little bit of money with a preseason investment that Kansas State (11) would have a higher initial BCS ranking than Nebraska.

Remaining Schedule

Oct. 22, at Minnesota (1-5, 0-2)

Oct. 29, Michigan State (5-1, 2-0)

Nov. 5, Northwestern (2-4, 0-3)

Nov. 12, at Penn State (6-1, 3-0)

Nov. 19, at Michigan (6-1, 2-1)

Nov. 25, Iowa (4-2, 1-1)

Pitfall game: at Michigan. Both Michigan State and Iowa present significant threats to Nebraska, but both of those games are in Memorial Stadium. Penn State has found ways to win, but is having enough offensive struggles to make the game seem more manageable.

But Michigan presents a bad matchup for Nebraska. Denard Robinson, Michigan’s quarterback, is the most dynamic playmaker in the B1G conference, and his ability to make something out of nothing plays right into the struggles NU has had defensively against mobile quarterbacks. If you were going to find the game Nebraska is most likely to lose in the second half of the season, look no further than Ann Arbor.

Bowl Projection

If we assume that Nebraska goes to Ann Arbor and loses to Michigan, but wins the remainder of its games, then NU will end the season with a 10-2 overall record and a 6-2 conference record. Nebraska will need Michigan to lose two more conference game to win the Legends Division and play in the inaugural B1G title game, as Michigan would hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over NU.

Michigan has games upcoming at Iowa, at Illinois and home to Ohio State. It’s not at all inconceivable to see Big Blue stumbling in one of those games, but it’s tough to see two losses on Michigan’s remaining schedule if the Wolverines knock off Nebraska.  

So, at this point, the prognostication has to be that Nebraska will fall short of the B1G title game in 2011. With a 10-2 overall record, but shut out of the conference title game, Nebraska would likely find itself with a trip to Tampa on New Year’s Day to play in the Outback Bowl against an SEC foe.

So, to finish the prognostication, let’s make the call as Nebraska versus Georgia in the 2012 Outback Bowl.

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