Iowa Football: Key Matchups for Hawkeyes vs. Indiana

On Oct. 22, the Iowa Hawkeyes will suit up against the Indiana Hoosiers for the University of Iowa's 100th homecoming game.

I'd like to blow this game up into more than it is worth, but the fact is, Iowa should squash the Hoosiers.

IU is 1-6, and has yet to beat an FBS team.

The fact is, if North Texas and Ball State can beat Indiana, then there is no reason Iowa shouldn't walk away with a win, let alone a decisive win.

But you know the Hawkeyes.

Vegas currently has Iowa giving away 21.5 points. I usually feel that Vegas is too generous with the Hawkeyes, but in this case, Iowa should cover the spread. This season's Hawks seem to be able to score against lousy defenses.

They have yet to prove they can score against good defenses, but that is something we won't have to consider until November.

Iowa Defense vs Third Downs

The Hawkeyes have allowed a whopping 51 percent completion rate on opponents' third downs.

That is second worst in the conference and 111th in the nation.

While those numbers alone are glaring, consider the Hawkeyes' opponents thus far. Iowa State is 70th in the country in third-down conversions. Pitt is 93rd, Louisiana-Monroe is 48th, Penn State is 74th and Northwestern is 20th.

In the Wildcats' case, they have converted an impressive 48.84 percent of their third-down conversions on the season. On the other hand, they converted 72.72 percent of their third downs against Iowa and 40.63 percent against all of their other opponents.

Bend-don't-break be damned, that number is simply unacceptable.

The Hawkeye defense has to find a way to get off the field. They cannot allow their opponent to convert half of their third-down attempts. I don't know if the answer includes more blitzing, more creative blitzing or more nickel and dime packages; but I do know the Hawkeye defensive coordinators have to do something.

Incidentally, Indiana is ninth in the conference and 80th in the country having converted 38.02 percent of its third downs.

Iowa Offense vs a Backup Running Back

The Hawkeyes are last in the conference and 94th in the country in rushing plays over 10 yards. They are also last in the conference and 107th in the country in rushing plays over 20 yards. Iowa has not yet had a rushing play over 30 yards.

The problem is that starting running back Marcus Coker is not a big play back. He is currently averaging 4.55 YPC, which is especially impressive when you consider how shaky he was at the beginning of the season.

4.55 YPC is an accurate representation of what Coker can do. He doesn't have 10 two-yard plays followed by a 50-yard explosion. He carries the mail.

Iowa needs a change-of-pace back that can do damage between the 20's.

I don't know if that back is one of true freshmen Jordan Canzeri or Damon Bullock; or redshirt freshman De'Andre Johnson. I do know the opportunities are there and the Hawkeyes need a running back that can exploit them.

Iowa vs the Worst Rushing Defense in the Conference

Speaking of a rushing game, the Indiana defense is letting up 4.99 YPC.

Wisconsin gained 7.9 YPC on IU. While Iowa is not UW, they should put up at least the same 4.7 YPC that North Texas put up on the Hoosiers. North Texas, incidentally, ranks 111th in the country in YPC.

This year, Iowa has averaged 33.5 carries-per-game. When you factor out that Iowa went exclusively to the pass to end both the Pitt and Penn State games, 40 carries a game seems about what the Hawks should aim for.

4.7 YPC multipled by 40 equals 188 yards.

Any less than that and Iowa will have underachieved against this defense.

Indiana vs Penalties

Indiana is the second most penalized team in the Big Ten.

I haven't watched much of the Hoosiers, but my guess is that the offensive line is taking a lot of illegal procedure penalties as they get used to the new offensive scheme.

It is also worth noting that Iowa is the least penalized team in the conference.

Iowa's discipline is something we fans take for granted, as the Hawks have been amongst the three least penalized teams in conference for last four seasons.

Iowa Pass Rush vs Indiana Pass Protection

Indiana has let up 20 sacks, which is the most in the Big Ten.

In some fairness to Indiana, the Hoosiers have faced three of the top five sacking teams in the conference.

Meanwhile, the Iowa defense is tied for the seventh most sacks in the conference with 10.

Last week, the Hawks tied their single-game high for the season with three sacks (they also had three sacks against Pitt).

Either way, the Iowa front four has been inconsistent. Against the Hoosiers, they will have to force the young, inexperienced quarterbacks to make mistakes.

Iowa vs Time of Possession

Maybe it would be incorrect to say that Kirk Ferentz is intent on winning the time of possession. After all, Coach Ferentz has repeatedly stated that his Hawkeyes are not a statistically "sexy" team.

Still, he seems to make a point of trying to keep his offense on the field, yet the Hawkeyes are doing terrible in terms of time-of-possession.

They are currently last in the Big Ten and 101st in the country.

The truth is TOP is not an important stat. Number of plays and number of possessions are much more important. TOP helps to keep a team's defense fresh, but number of plays and number of possessions indicate how many opportunities a team has to move the ball down the field and score. Logic dictates that the more opportunities, the more likely the team in question will score.

As for number of plays, Iowa is second-to-last in the conference.

On the bright side, the Hawks are efficient when they have the ball, ranking fifth in the Big Ten in yards-per-play averaging 5.9 yards every offensive snap.

On the other hand, Indiana is tied for 11th in the conference with 4.8 YPP.

Indiana Secondary vs Marvin McNutt and Keenan Davis

I've said this against every team Iowa has played thus far this season and I will say it again.

The opposing team's cornerbacks cannot match up against Marvin McNutt and Keenan Davis. Even if they can match up against them from a talent and experience standpoint—which the Hoosiers' cornerbacks can't—they are unable to match up against them physically.

To reiterate, McNutt stands at 6'4", 215 pounds. Davis is 6'3, 215 pounds. McNutt will hear his name called in the 2012 NFL Draft, and I'll go so far as to predict that Davis will hear his name called in 2013 (it remains to be seen how high it will be called).

Indiana's starting cornerbacks are redshirt sophomores Lawrence Barnett and Greg Heban.

Barnett measures in at 5'10", 191 pounds, while Heban is 6'1" and 186 pounds. Barnett came to IU as a cornerback, then moved to safety in 2010 and switched back to cornerback in 2011 spring practice. This is his first year starting.

Heban is a walk-on that played baseball instead of football in 2009. He walked on to the football team in 2010, and started four games at cornerback.

Aside from everything else, Davis and McNutt should be able to outphysical Barnett, while Heban, though he is a quality player, is more a safety or nickelback than a cornerback.

Incidentally, IU is tied for the second fewest interceptions in the Big Ten with four.

In closing, if Iowa gets man coverage on the outside, JVB should call a go route, throw the ball up and let the more talented player do what he is physically equipped to do.

Iowa vs Stubbornness

During the final few minutes against Northwestern, Iowa went with its base 4-3 defense. I have no idea why as Northwestern was in a situation where it had to pass. With cornerback B.J. Lowery back from injury, they could have put nickel and dime looks into the game.

This was especially relevant considering the injury issues Iowa is having with its linebackers.

Ultimately, IU has nowhere near the potent passing game that Northwestern has, but it begs the question: at what point will Kirk Ferentz and Norm Parker accept the fact that it is 2011 and extra defensive backs need to be on the field in order to combat the spread passing attack that is so in vogue.

Iowa vs Consistency

The Hawks' game against Tennessee Tech was hard to judge any which way, as the weather was such a mess.

Then Iowa laid a big, fat bomb against Iowa State.

They stunk up Kinnick for the first three quarters of the Pitt game, only to explode in the fourth quarter. After that, they did what they are supposed to do against an overmatched opponent in ULM: they dominated.

This was followed by a clunker against Penn State, and an up and down and then back up game against Northwestern.

Needless to say, I have no idea what to expect against Indiana.

Iowa vs Playing Down to Its Opponents

Let's face it. Indiana is 1-6.

They lost to 4-3 Ball State and 2-5 North Texas. They let 4-3 (FCS) South Carolina State hang 21 points on them. Incidentally, South Carolina State only put six points up on Central Michigan.

The Hoosiers are the 11th-ranked scoring offense in the Big Ten. They are the worst rushing offense in the conference. The second-worst rushing offense (Michigan State) is averaging a full .40 YPC more than IU.

Their passing offense isn't much better, as they rank 10th in the conference with a team efficiency rating of 112.64.

As for the defense, if Minnesota wasn't so putrid, the Hoosiers would be at the bottom of the conference in just about every notable defensive statistic.

In some fairness, IU has improved and the team that will suit up against Iowa is better than the team that lost to Ball State at the beginning of the season.

Meanwhile, the Hawks have quite a few issues, but they have no business letting the Hoosiers compete with them.

Iowa is better than IU in every facet of the game, and the Hawkeye starters should be done by the end of the third quarter.

The problem is I could have said the same thing for Iowa against Purdue in 2008. Or Iowa against UNI or Arkansas State in 2009. Or Iowa vs. Indiana last season. Or even Iowa against 3-3 Iowa State this season.

This has been the problem with Kirk Ferentz-coached teams. They are always in the game, no matter who their opponent is. That means they compete with teams that are better than them and they let teams that are worse than them hang around.

This year's Indiana team falls decidedly into the latter category.

Bonus Slide: Five Keys to an Iowa Victory

1. The Hoosiers are not good.

Iowa needs to beat them, take the life out of them and bring on the scrubs. The Hawkeyes have no business letting the Hoosiers compete in this game.

2. Pressure the IU quarterback.

These QBs are not good. IU has third worst passer efficiency rating in Big Ten, but all QBs look like Tom Brady if given time to find an open receiver.

3. With that in mind, don't let up big plays.

These QBs are not good enough to consistently drive the field. Make them earn it. This should be pure Norm Parker bend-don't-break defense. Incidentally, you can play it safe while still bringing the blitz. Penn State did it effectively against Iowa.

4. Maintain drives and score on offense.

The Indiana no-huddle has the potential to wear the Iowa defense out. The antidote is a Hawk offense that maintains drives, which they should be able to do.

5. Get the ball in hands of the offensive playmakers.

IU's secondary cannot cover McNutt, Davis and all of Iowa's big receivers. Don't get cute. Get single coverage and throw it up to them.

And if Indiana doesn't give up single man coverage, then the run should be there for the taking.