Georgia vs. Vanderbilt: Analysis of the Effects of a Potential Bulldog Loss

What? Lose? Well, ouch. Some of you may be saying to yourselves, "Well, thanks there, buzzkill, for raising that rather harsh and stark proposition. Not." Well, it is a rather sobering one, isn't it?

As a Georgia fan or maybe just a fan of the SEC or of college football in general, are you saying that the Bulldogs losing Saturday evening's game to the Vanderbilt Commodores is not a possibility that you have even seriously considered?

If not, then you sure better hope that it's one that the Dawgs and their coaching staff have chewed on. Because if not, it could well be that their fate has been sealed before the opening kickoff ever occurs.

But wait a minute. All things considered, putting this game in the 'W' column before it has actually been played isn't completely unreasonable, is it? After all, the Sanford Slobberers are on a roll, baby.

They've won four straight, dominating the much-feared Chanticleers of Coastal Carolina and issuing solid, if unspectacular, 'L's to the 2-3 Ole Miss Black Bears (what is that about, anyway?), the not-so-menacing Mauling Mullens of Mississippi State (3-3), and the soon to be 3-3 Rockytops of Tennessee (they got LSU on Saturday...or could that be an upset, too? Nah.).

So, a win against perennial SEC East cellar dwellers Vanderbilt, coming off of back-to-back, "welcome back to the real world, boys" losses to South Carolina and Alabama, should be a foregone conclusion for this streaking pack of droopy-jowled canines, right?

Despite Vandy's quick and atypical 3-0 start against powers like Elon (don't know, don't care), the Connecticut (don't call me UConn until hoops begin) Huskies, and previously slurred, Colonel Reb-less Ole Miss, the surreal sortie of the not-quite-admirals from Nashville has returned to familiar waters...near the bottom of the SEC East.

Vanderbilt currently ranks 100th among the 120 FBS schools in rushing yardage, 114th in passing yardage, 117th in total offense, and 98th in scoring. 

So-o-o-o, facing an apparently much-improved Georgia defense that ranks 12th against the run, eighth in defensive passing efficiency, sixth in yards yielded, and 20th in scoring defense, it seems highly improbable that the 'Dores will be able to take the ham bone away from these food-protective Dawgs, right?

Well, as we hear several times per Saturday morning on ESPN during the fall, "Not so fast, my friends!" Look closely, and you will find a few factors that cast at least a modicum (well, maybe a scintilla) of doubt upon a presumptive Georgia victory.

Vanderbilt is a program that is being retooled by rookie head coach, James Franklin. Franklin is young, bright, articulate (he needs to be at Vandy), and jacked up about finally getting his shot, especially at an SEC school.

 Ranked one of the naton's top 25 recruiters, Franklin has the ears and hearts of his team right now and is selling them hard on making the dream of winning at Vanderbilt a reality.

While struggling on offense, Vandy's defense ranks in the top quarter of all FBS programs across all major measures of defensive prowess. They lead the SEC in passes intercepted, are tied with Georgia for third in sacks, and are third behind Georgia in tackles for losses.

On special teams, they are solid, but unspectacular. They are second in the SEC in turnover margin. Like they perform in the classroom, they play smart and are unlikely to beat themselves.

In sum, they are no chumps. They are solid on defense, are playing at home and, though recently rocked back to reality, remain "all in" the aura of a young coach's vision and enthusiasm. These are not assets to be scoffed at and taken lightly, especially by a team whose own renaissance remains a work in progress.

Okay, for the sake of argument, let's assume that Georgia losing this game is within the realm of possibility. What would the ramifications be? What would it mean short term and long? From this chair (okay, couch), there are but two likely and viable scenarios that could play out in the remainder of the season if the Bulldogs did lose. Let's explore and consider them both.

The first scenario is the much more optimistic of the two. The Dawgs lose and limp back to Athens, yelping and with tails tucked between their legs. With an open date next Saturday, they take some time off, lick their wounds, and get ready to take on the Gators in Jacksonville on Oct. 29. Having regrouped and stiffened their resolve, they rise up and skin the Gators, putting the brakes on a three-game skid which included the black-helmeted butt-whoopin' of 2009.

Imbued with confidence from having shaken the crocodilian boogie man, the Bulldogs polish off the practitioners of husbandry from New Mexico State and kennel the already tame Kitties of Kentucky. Sandwiched between those lightweights, the Dawgs place themselves in nomination for the SEC East crown by beating the Cam-less Auburn Plainsmen Fairley and squarely. 

Win or lose against the Bugs on Thanksgiving weekend, division champs or not, they go to an anywhere from respectable to good bowl game where they play anybody but Central Florida and win.

Mark Richt gets off the hot seat, signs another "dream team" (though he needs to get busy because they are currently ranked 16th by ESPN, 20th by Rivals, and not at all by Scout for the 2012 class), and all is right again in the land of slobber and kibble.

The other scenario, however, doesn't play out quite so positively, pleasantly and painlessly. After the staggering loss in Nashville, the Elizabethan collarless Dawgs scratch and claw at their wounds for two weeks before heading to Everbanks Field where the Gators smell blood in the water.

The Chomp from the Swamp eats its fill of the Dawgs and spits out the rest for the War Buzzards to pick over. Though the partially consumed canines still kick the Aggies and the 'Cats, the Insects feast upon and finish off the remains of the Dawgs' rotting carcass. 

The Bulldogs finish .500 again, and bowl or no, the outcome is pointless. The damage has been done and a deathblow rendered to Mark Richt's career at Georgia.

Would that be fair? Well, does that really matter? Fair or not, life in big-time college coaching just isn't about fair. It's about production. Even more importantly, it's about one's most recent productivity, in other words,  "What have you done for us lately, Coach?"

At such a point, would canning the coach be the best move for the program? Well, that's uncertain too. On the one hand, consecutive losing seasons would be a trend...a really bad one. Even 6-6 (like they wouldn't receive a bowl bid, right) or 7-5 would likely not be enough to save Richt were Saturday's game to reveal that we had been rooting on a house of cards.

Let's face it, Jim Donnan wasn't cut that kind of slack. Heck, Donnan was fired after consecutive 8-4 seasons and four consecutive bowl wins. He just couldn't beat the tiger-striped wasps. Forgive me, but is Georgia Tech really that relevant in the big scheme of things (Remember, I begged forgiveness in advance)?

If a loss at Vanderbilt were to cause the wheels to fall off of this season's wagon and the Bulldogs lost yet again to Florida, when the Gators are perhaps at their most vulnerable since 2004, then perhaps a change in leadership is what the doctor ordered.

While Georgia dodged a bullet with this year's signing class after a dismal campaign, such a severe collapse could completely torpedo recruiting in 2012.

On the other hand, such an implosion and a subsequent departure by Richt could set the program back for some time to come. Disenchanted players loyal to their coach might bolt for other schools. A completely new staff would have to start anew, rebuilding the rebuilding from scratch.

The improvements made on defense from last year to this might be squandered, as new philosophies and systems would certainly be introduced.

And as already mentioned, a recruiting year that appears sluggish at present could go completely dormant with the departure of the staff that had been building relationships on behalf of the program.

For real progress to be made, consecutive recruiting class coups are key to the immediate future of the program.

And in the midst of all of this flux, the only lesson that the players would learn is that being a good and godly leader pales in comparison to winning 'X' number of football games each and every season.

Sure, Georgia might be fortunate enough to hire a dynamic football coaching machine who, like Mark Richt has been for over a decade, also happens to a good role model for his players. They could.

But then again, Georgia might bat only .500 on getting the attributes that they seek in a new coach, or they could even whiff completely with their next choice.

Now, certainly alternative scenarios in between those discussed here exist and could unfold. But if the Dawgs were to be upset at Vandy on Saturday, the pathway whereby they right the ship, beat Florida, win the SEC East title, and Mark Richt remains head coach seems both unforeseeable and unlikely, at least from this perspective.

But not, however, impossible. 

Okay, now let's pinch ourselves and hope that when we all wake up Sunday morning, we'll open our eyes to find Auntie Em standing over us and the Dawgs 5-2. Go Dawgs.