BCS Rankings: 5 Teams That Will Plummet Before Season Is Over

The BCS rankings are turned upside-down in seemingly every college football season. Which teams will drop from the top this season?

Though the BCS rankings don’t debut until this weekend, we have a pretty good idea of which teams will populate the top end of the list.

LSU, Boise State, Oklahoma State, Michigan and Georgia Tech have all deserved their rankings thus far, but by the end of the season, all five teams will wish for the halcyon days of Week 7.

LSU Tigers

The LSU Tigers sit atop the AP Poll, and at this point in the season, they deserve every bit of that ranking.

The Tigers are undefeated. Not only that, they’ve steamrolled two of the nation’s best offenses along the way, pounding Oregon and West Virgina into submission.

LSU is fueled by its defense. Tyrann Mathieu and Morris Claiborne lead quite possibly the best unit in the country.

Even against a schedule that’s already put the Tigers up against four ranked teams, LSU has allowed just 254 yards per game and a paltry 3.8 yards per play, both of which rank in the top 5 in the nation.

Yet even with all of that working in its favor, LSU will be lucky to crack the Top 5 in the final BCS rankings.

Regardless of all of the work that they do before and after, the Tigers’ entire season will come down to a road game against the Alabama Crimson Tide on November 5. And they will lose.

Alabama’s defense is just as good, if not better, than LSU’s.

While the Tide have faced a slightly easier schedule, Bama has limited opposing offenses to just 191 yards per game and 3.2 yards per play, while allowing an FBS-best 7.0 points per game.

Neither Alabama nor LSU has a particularly good offense, but the Tide have one element that the Tigers cannot match. Bama backs up its stellar defense with the best running back in the nation, Trent Richardson.

While it’s dominated against the option running of Oregon, Mississippi and Florida, the LSU defense hasn’t faced a pro-style running game like the one that Richardson and Alabama will bring to the table.

This is not to say that LSU can’t limit his effectiveness. Rather, the major concern for the Tigers is the lack of any kind of counter punch against the Alabama’s 224 pound bruiser. Along with a raucous crowd in Tuscaloosa, Richardson will be the difference in a narrow Alabama victory.

A loss against the Tide will be a double-edged knife in the heart of LSU’s season. It will not only drop them in the rankings, but likely eliminate any chance of LSU going to the SEC title game. Even if Bama lost to another SEC team, the Tide would own the head-to-head tiebreaker over LSU.

Without a title game to make a final statement in front of the voters, LSU could be leapfrogged by Oklahoma, Stanford, Wisconsin or even Oregon if those teams can win their respective conference championships.

The SEC West is unquestionably the toughest division in the toughest conference in college football. The team that can make it through that gauntlet will undoubtedly have the inside track for a bid to the BCS National Championship. LSU is not that team.

Boise State Broncos

While the Boise State Broncos have made undefeated seasons the norm in the Chris Peterson era, they have less control over their own destiny than any other FBS contender.

Going into every season, the Broncos can circle a couple of games that give them a legitimate chance to show their stuff against a strong opponent.

This year, those opponents are Georgia and TCU. Unfortunately for the good people of Boise, the Bulldogs and Horned Frogs are both working through down years.

Boise State already spanked Georgia in a virtual road game to open the season, but since then, the Bulldogs have stumbled and currently sit in the middle of the pack in the SEC.

When the Broncos are inevitably compared against teams like LSU and Alabama, a road win over Georgia won’t seem particularly impressive.

Going into the year, Boise State fans could hope for the late-season showdown with new MWC mate TCU to boost the Broncos' strength of schedule late in the year. The Horned Frogs already have two losses, but may very well show up to Boise with three defeats, as a home date with BYU looms in late October.

And that, through no fault of its own, will spell the end for Boise State’s national title dreams.

Regardless of how many wins Kellen Moore and the Broncos can pile up, Boise State’s schedule strength will drag it down like an anchor.

Over its last seven games, Boise State faced only one team (TCU) that currently ranks in the top 50 of the Sagarin computer rankings. In fact, the majority of the Bronco’s remaining opponents sit outside of the top 100.

I have no doubt that Boise State will finish the season undefeated. I also have no doubt that the Broncos have no chance to compete for the BCS National Championship.

They never had a chance.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Oklahoma State has spent the last few years trying to outrun its reputation as an overrated, one-dimensional fraud.

Once again, that reputation is well-deserved.

Justin Blackmon, Brandon Weeden and the Cowboys offense lead the FBS in scoring, putting up 51.4 points per game.

On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma State ranks 103rd in total defense, allowing nearly 440 yards per game against a schedule that included matchups with Louisiana-Lafeyette and Tulsa.

Mike Gundy’s Cowboys have settled in to the role that was previously occupied by Mike Leach’s Texas Tech Red Raiders. Sitting consistently as the third banana in the Big 12 South, occasionally jumping up to challenge either Texas or Oklahoma, but never building up quite enough momentum to grab the belt.

They’re flashy, but inevitably, the Cowboys will be outed.

Over the next four weeks, OSU faces three ranked teams, plus a Missouri squad that is fully capable of keeping up with the Cowboys' offense.

Realistically, 3-1 would be a good target for Oklahoma State, but emerging from that stretch 2-2 certainly wouldn’t be a big surprise.

After running through that gauntlet, OSU closes its regular season with a home date with Oklahoma. Bedlam has produced plenty of classics, but don't be surprised if this year's version is a laugher for the Sooners. Oklahoma State's defense is completely incapable of containing Landry Jones and the OU attack.

As per usual, the Cowboys are loaded with talent on offense, and run a scheme that gives that talent every opportunity to succeed, but unless Oklahoma State can magically conjure up an above average defense, it won’t earn a place near the top of the BCS standings.

Michigan Wolverines

Brady Hoke came into Ann Arbor with a new offense, a pro-style system that would bring the Michigan Wolverines back to the glory days when somehow, three yards and a cloud of dust resulted in a first down.

Then Michigan went down 14-0 to Notre Dame and those plans were scrapped.

At that moment, Hoke rightly decided that Michigan’s only chance for success was to let its best player off the leash.

A rejuvenated Denard Robinson torched the Fighting Irish for 446 total yards and led the Wolverines to a palpitating comeback win. From there, it’s been smooth sailing.

Michigan’s playground offense looks unstoppable and the defense, though it’s given up an unimpressive 5.4 yards per play, has allowed just 12.5 points per game. Robinson has raced out to the head of the Heisman pack for the second year in a row.

Yet Robinson won't win the Heisman this year for the same reason he didn't win it last year. He weighs 175 pounds (he’s listed at 193, but I don’t buy that for a second), and carries the ball 17 times per game.

Elusive as he is, Robinson simply can’t take that kind of punishment over the course of an entire season. He may not miss games, but he will absolutely wear down.

On the other side of the ball, the defense’s luck is doomed to run out. So far, the Wolverines have recovered 80 percent of the fumbles in their games. Over the course of a season, fumbles are a 50/50 proposition. That incredible recovery rate has helped Michigan 12 fumbles this season, which leads all of the FBS.

In the long run, that rate will regress to the mean and Michigan’s scoring defense will reflect the incapability of a unit that ranks 58th in the nation in yards per play.

The Wolverines’ schedule is back-loaded, with half of their remaining games coming against ranked teams. Michigan’s downfall will start this week against Michigan State, but with road dates with Illinois and Iowa looming, the Wolverines will finish the season with at least two losses.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Paul Johnson continues to defy the odds at Georgia Tech, riding a dominant rushing offense to the top of the ACC. The Yellow Jackets have rushed for over 360 yards per game and racked up 46.5 points per game.

Yet as dominant as his offense is, it has a fatal flaw. Georgia Tech can’t come from behind.

To this point, the Jackets haven’t faced an offense that can consistently punish its mediocre defense, but when they do, their one-dimensional attack won’t be able efficiently move the ball.

Georgia Tech can certainly score quickly, the Yellow Jackets lead the nation with 27 plays of 30+ yards, but in late-game situations, they don’t have the ability to move the ball without milking the clock.

So far, Tech has been able to ramble through a fairly mediocre schedule. That is going to change. Soon.

After a trip to Charlottesville next week, Georgia Tech will have to face the top three teams in the ACC in quick succession. The Yellow Jackets are good, but they are not good enough to emerge from a three-game stretch against Miami, Clemson and Virginia Tech unscathed.

A couple of late-season losses, especially one to Virginia Tech, will drop Georgia Tech down in the rankings and probably eliminate the Jackets from the ACC title game. That'll spell the end for Tech's run in the BCS elite.