NFL Picks Week 6: 6 Games Vegas Got Wrong

Las Vegas is not in the business of making you money. Luckily, we are here to show you how to maximize your paycheck. 

The oddsmakers in Vegas are paid to come up with the lines that create false confidence among bettors, but they have left some money on the table.

The next six slides will outline the best plays of Week 6 in the NFL.

6. Indianopolis Colts at Cincinati Bengals: -7

The Indianapolis Colts are easily the worst team in the league without Peyton Manning. Fortunately for you, Manning is not coming back this week.

Bill Simmons has pointed out that the Cincinnati Bengals are one of those sneaky good-bad teams. They have already taken out the surprise Buffalo Bills and barely lost to the better-than-expected San Francisco 49ers.

Look for the Bengals' front seven to continue their semi-dominance against a Joseph Addai-less Colts while Leon Hall shuts down Reggie Wayne. Cincinnati's running game will keep enough pressure on the Colts' defense to allow Andy Dalton to make the plays necessary to easily cover the seven-point spread.

5. Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: -4

The Carolina Panthers have been dangerous against the spread all year by coming up with backdoor covers. Yet, this week they run into an Atlanta Falcons squad hungry for redemption.

Experts all over the country are calling out the Falcons for their lack of big-game wins. The Green Bay Packers shook off Atlanta's quick 14-0 lead to come back and cover a six-point spread.

This should only serve as fuel for a team one season removed from the playoffs. Cam Newton has put up great numbers every week but there is no reason to believe their rushing defense—which has allowed 4.9 yards per carry—an possibly contain an angry Michael Turner.

Look for Matt Ryan to play off Turner and exploit the play-action game to hit Julio Jones and Roddy White for multiple touchdowns.

4. Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: -7.5

The Miami Dolphins are without their starting quarterback, Chad Henne. Any chance for respectability this season has gone out the window as Reggie Bush will continue to prove he is nothing more than a change-of-pace running back.

The New York Jets have their collective backs against the wall at 2-3, but their point differential of minus-four proves they are much better than their record. The Dolphins have put all their chips towards the Andrew Luck sweepstakes and will provide little resistance towards the redemption-hungry Jets.

New York will not just cover the 7.5 points necessary, but will win this game by a minimum of 21 points.

3. Buffalo Bills at New York Giants: -3

The New York Giants limp into this game after taking a loss to the lowly Seattle Seahawks. Alternatively, the Buffalo Bills come into this game full of confidence after handing the NFL's Dream Team, the Philadelphia Eagles, its fourth loss of the season.

Fred Jackson has proved his small-school reputation only means he has less wear and tear than your average running back on his way to becoming the third rushing leader in the league with 480 yards. Meanwhile, the New York Giants' "vaunted" defense has allowed the 23rd-most rushing yards so far this season.

Any fantasy player will acknowledge he/she would feel much more comfortable with Harvard's Ryan Fitzgerald than Eli Manning (despite his solid start). When the Bills offense is coupled with its opportunistic defense, Manning will probably spend more time tackling opposing interceptors than celebrating touchdowns this week.

2. The Green Bay Packers and St. Louis Rams with an Over/Under of 48

The St. Louis Rams and the Green Bay Packers are both safely in the bottom half of the league when it comes to stopping opposing aerial offenses from entering the end zone.

Aaron Rodgers and his arsenal of weapons, including the quickly emerging Jordy Nelson, put up points on anybody, as evidenced by the 49 points scored last week. St. Louis has had to deal with quite a few injuries at the wide receiver position, but Green Bay has shown little resistance on the defensive side of the ball as the team is ranked in the middle of the pack when it comes to scoring defense.

Look for a shootout to develop between two teams who love to air it out. It is entirely possible that Rodgers leads the Packers to 48 points on his own.

1. New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -4.5

Besides the first game of the season against the surging Detroit Lions, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have shown little reason for faith in the direction of their team. Last week's 48-3 loss to the offensively inept San Francisco 49ers signals a team that is completely lost on the defensive side of the ball.

Enter Drew Brees and his explosive New Orleans Saints squad. The addition of Darren Sproles may have been the most underrated addition of the offseason as he is one off the team lead in receptions and has added four touchdowns as the new kid on the block.

The Saints defense may allow almost 25 points per game, but the Bucs offense ranks near the bottom of the league in points scored. Add in Brees, and it is difficult to see Tampa Bay coming within double digits of the high-powered Saints.