Projecting Brewer Pitchers

These are very similar to the hitting projections I posted yesterday. I’ve been tweaking these a little bit since I first posted them on my old blog to make up for the fact that I had the wrong replacement value and also I had forgot to include Manny Parra for some reason.

Here are some assumptions for this table:
Starting Rotation, in no meaningful order:
Gallardo, Capuano, Parra, Bush, Suppan

Relievers, with no special roles attached:
Stetter, Villanueva, McClung, DiFelice, Dillard, Coffey, Riske, and new addition Swindle.

Total Innings Pitched = 1458 ( = 162*9)
Total Innings Pitched by Starters = 863.67 (5.33 IP/G)
Total Innings Pitched by Relievers = 594.33 (3.67 IP/G)

Average ERA = 4.34, from the Marcel’s
I’ve normalized FIP so that Average FIP = Average ERA = 4.34

So FIP = 3.23 + (13*HR + 3*BB - 2*K)/IP

Runs Saved Above Average = (lgAvg - player)*9/IP
Replacement ERA for Starters = 5.65 = Replacement FIP for Starters
Replacment ERA for Relievers = 4.65 = Replacement FIP for Relievers

Market Value is 4.84 M$/WAR, as before.

And here. We. Go.

nameLast	IP	ERA	HR	K	BB	FIP	FIPRAA	ERARAA	FIPWAA	ERAWAA	WAR	Value (M$)	Actual Salary
Gallardo	79	3.65	7	70	28	3.67	5.85	6.06	0.56	0.58	1.65	8	0.45
Capuano	72	4.5	9	60	24	4.19	1.21	-1.28	0.12	-0.12	1.11	5.39	3.75
Parra	139	4.44	14	121	59	4.07	4.14	-1.54	0.39	-0.15	2.32	11.24	0.5
Bush	169	4.31	23	118	45	4.4	-1.16	0.56	-0.11	0.05	2.23	10.81	4
Suppan	169	4.85	21	98	63	4.8	-8.71	-9.58	-0.83	-0.91	1.51	7.32	12.5
Stetter	38	4.03	4	33	18	4.28	0.24	1.31	0.02	0.12	0.15	0.71	0.4
Villanueva	96	4.03	13	82	34	4.34	-0.05	3.31	0	0.31	0.31	1.5	0.5
McClung	89	4.35	9	70	44	4.45	-1.13	-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	0.18	0.89	1.2
DiFelice	35	4.37	5	28	12	4.52	-0.68	-0.12	-0.07	-0.01	0.05	0.24	0.4
Dillard	32	4.22	4	23	12	4.54	-0.72	0.43	-0.07	0.04	0.04	0.18	0.4
Coffey	43	4.81	6	33	16	4.63	-1.36	-2.25	-0.13	-0.21	0.01	0.05	0.4
Riske	53	4.25	7	39	23	4.78	-2.57	0.53	-0.25	0.05	-0.07	-0.35	4.25
Replacement SP	235.67	5.65	-	-	-	5.65	-34.3	-34.3	-3.27	-3.27	0	0	0
Replacement RP	208.33	4.65	-	-	-	4.65	-7.18	-7.18	-0.68	-0.68	0	0	0
TOTALS	1458	-	-	-	-	-	-46.42	-44.15	-4.42	-4.2	9.5	45.99	28.75
Gallardo/Capuano/Parra 160 IP each	-	-	-	-	-	-
Gallardo	160	3.65	14.18	141.77	56.71	3.67	10.13	12.27	0.97	1.17	3.35	16.2	0.45
Capuano	160	4.5	18.23	121.52	48.61	4.1	0.89	-2.84	0.08	-0.27	2.62	12.67	3.75
Parra	160	4.44	16.12	139.28	67.91	4.07	4.77	-1.78	0.45	-0.17	2.67	12.93	0.5
Replacement SP	45.67	5.65				5.65	-6.65	-6.65	-1.74	-1.74	0
Replacement RP	208.33	4.65	-	-	-	4.65	-7.18	-7.18	-2.08	-2.08	0
TOTALS	1458	-	-	-	-	-	-14.19	-12.07	-1.35	-1.15	13.05	67.13	28.75
+FREE AGENT SIGNINGS
Swindle (Projections from CAIRO)	49	2.79	4	45	8	2.94	7.6	8.44	0.68	0.8	0.88	4.28	0.4
Replacement SP	45.67	5.65	-	-	-	3.23	5.63	-7.1	-0.68	-0.68	0
Replacement RP	159.33	4.65	-	-	-	4.65	-5.49	-5.49	-1.74	-1.74	0
TOTALS	1458	-	-	-	-	-	-2.75	-2.4	-0.26	-0.23	13.94	71.41	29.15

EDIT: Caught a tiny mistake in the table (hadn’t changed the replacment values in the second section)

I’ve crunched the numbers both using Marcel’s very pessimistic IP projections, and using a slightly less pessimistic projection in which we hope and pray that Gallardo and whoever else ends up filling the rotation manages to get to 160 IP (a slightly low value for starters that I felt would be appropriately pessimistic for a Wisconsin winter).

First off, using Marcel’s IP totals, if we don’t go get anybody else, we’re looking like a +10.5 WAR (the 9.5 plus Swindle’s 1) team out of the rotation.  That number, combined with the 20.6 WAR out of the lineup, gives us a  31.1 WAR team.  Given that a replacement team would win about 50 games in a season, that puts the Brewers at 81-81  Certainly not what we’re looking for following last season.

Things look a little better if we take a look at the projections with higher innings for the starters.  Gallardo’s extra innings by themselves are almost worth 2 full wins.  With these extra innings, the Brewers look like a 14 WAR team.  14+ 20.6 = 34.6 so these totals put the Brewers at 84.6-77.4.   Going into free agency, the Brewers are only 5 wins away from 90 wins, which was a playoff berth last year and should very well put them in contention again this year.  The question, then, becomes, where the money should go.

Bullpen help is clearly needed, as this group just really is not very good.  The Swindle signing should help things, but we could still use a couple decent right handers.  I had my heart set on Jeremy Affeldt, but the Giants swiped him very early on.  I’ll go in to available Free Agents a little later this week.

A note on relievers WAR:  these numbers are non-leveraged.  If a reliever comes into a game in a high-pressure situation (save situations, runners on late in close games), it’s only natural that saving these runs are more important then saving runs in the average situation.   Tom Tango developed a stat called Leverage Index which measures how important situations are, based on the swings in win expectancy.  The average situation is valued at 1.00.  The average closer last year had a pLI of 1.93, so in order to calculate Leveraged Runs Above Replacement for a closer,

LRAR = 1.93 * RAR

However, since the Brewers bullpen is in a bit of turmoil with no defined roles, I haven’t tried to find leveraged runs.  If you think Villanueva will close, multiply his numbers by 1.93.  Same for McClung.  Or Riske, if you’re feeling risky.

Overall, I think there’s room for a little optimism.  If Gallardo performs to potential, he’s a legitimate top-of-the-rotation starter, and Attanasio has shown he’s willing to spend the money necessary to win.  One good (not necessarily CC or Burnett level; perhaps even average) starter and two decent relievers should put this team right back in to contention.