Oklahoma Sooners: Why Win over Texas Just Isn't Enough to Put Them at No. 1

The Oklahoma Sooners opened up Saturday's games with an outright demolition of Texas. It was such a thorough and complete domination on both ends of the ball, it had people asking exactly why they had been dropped out of the No. 1 spot in the AP Poll. Then LSU played and reminded us why. 

Presently, there are three teams that have a valid claim to the top spot in the polls. There are some other undefeated teams too, but they aren't in the conversation for various reason. I'll mention those teams first and provide some brief commentary on each of them.

Boise State will have their fans feeling jilted again if they go undefeated and don't get a shot at the national championship. The reality is they aren't in as good of a division as the SEC or Big 12 or Big 10, which is why if a team goes undefeated from any of those conferences, they deserve to get the nod over Boise State. 

Now some will say that that's what always happens to Boise State. That's not exactly true. What has happened to Boise State twice is a once defeated team has gotten the nod over an undefeated Boise State team. If Boise State is one of two undefeated teams, I think they have a valid argument.

There is no way an undefeated Broncos team gets in over an undefeated BCS conference team though. They simply won't have the wins on their schedule. At present, the best team on their schedule is the Georgia Bulldogs. That's not enough to compare to Oklahoma's, Alabama's or LSU's schedule. 

The next team to consider is Wisconsin. Now, there is an interesting case. Right now, it looks like Oklahoma will have a better schedule than Wisconsin, but it will depend on the way the rest of the season shakes out. It would be a shock if they were able to do enough to surpass Oklahoma though. 

That could change as unlikely teams that are also undefeated like Illinois and Michigan continue to climb the rankings. The Big 10 is presently the third ranked conference in most of the computer polls. Illinois could be undefeated when they meet Wisconsin. Michigan looks to be the winner of the Legends Division and would have one loss or be undefeated if they are. 

That could give Wisconsin the late season wins they need to leapfrog Oklahoma. 

Then there is Oklahoma State, who has an absolutely explosive offense. They have the potential to upset their in-state rival, and if they do, they would probably leapfrog the teams in front of them to settle into the favorite to play for the National Championship.

Finally, there are Stanford and Clemson. With both of those teams, there are just too many things that need to happen in order for them to have a real shot at the title game. For the time being, they are just in need of too much help to seriously consider. 

Having dispensed with those teams, let's settle in on Oklahoma, Alabama and LSU. Each team is in charge of their own destiny. If they win out, they are in the title game, so in some ways, it's a moot point who is ranked first. However, if we don't have the chance to argue about it, where's all the fun going to be?

There are some arguments that people make which I find deliberately specious when debating these issues. The most specious of all is when people will take their preference's best win and then compare it with the other team's worst wins, or at least something less than their best wins. 

There is a sort of cousin of that argument this week as the best win of the week belongs to Oklahoma if you consider the margin of victory and the ranking of the opponent. The Sooners absolutely destroyed the Longhorns and deserve credit for that win. 

There have been some Oklahoma fans who want to just compare that win to LSU's win this week or Alabama's win this week. Obviously, that's completely disingenuous as the season didn't start this week. Cherry picking schedule arguments is intellectually dishonest. You have to compare best wins with best wins, not just this week's wins with this week's wins.  

The other thing that can be misleading is arguing about "ranked opponents." For instance, LSU's win over Mississippi State in Oxford doesn't looks as impressive now as it did then. They were ranked No. 25 at the time, but it's clear they are not one of the 25 best teams in the country now. 

Let's take each team's best win of the year based on Jeff Sagarin's "Predictor" rating. The predictor rating includes margin of victory and is therefore the most accurate reflection of how teams actually played. 

LSU has the best win of the year of any team in college football with their opening night 13 point win over the present No. 7 Oregon Ducks on a neutral field.  

The next best win of the season belongs to Alabama who blew out the 14th ranked Arkansas Razorbacks 38-14 on September 24th. 

The third best win is by LSU who beat the tar out of West Virginia 47-21 in Morgantown. 

The fourth best is Alabama's win over the 11th ranked Florida Gators in the Swamp, 31-18.

The fifth best win is LSU's beat down of the same Florida Gators in Death Valley last night. 

Oklahoma has the sixth best win with their 38-28 win over Missouri at home. LSU has three better wins and Alabama has two better wins. Texas fell to 21st in the Sagarin Predictor rating after their loss to Oklahoma. 

Oklahoma's win over Texas last night is the seventh best win of the season.

The eighth best win is Alabama's win over Penn State in State College. Penn State is now 22nd. The ninth best win belongs to Oklahoma and their win over Florida State on the road. The tenth best win is LSU's win over the 48th ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs  in Oxford.

After that, there are no more wins against top 50 teams. I really don't care who was better out of North Texas and Vanderbilt. Once you get out of the top 50 teams, it really shouldn't affect the SOS arguments.

Of the nine games that the teams have played against top 50 teams, LSU has played four of them, Alabama three of them and Oklahoma two of them. Of the five toughest games, LSU has three of them and Alabama two. Of the three best games, LSU has two of them and Alabama one.  

LSU and Alabama also have the toughest out of conference wins. 

There's really no debate to be had here. Oklahoma's schedule has not been close to the same level as LSU's.

You could make a case for 'Bama's schedule being close, but LSU has the best win (Oregon), the best neutral site win (Oregon), the best road win (West Virginia) and the most high quality wins (four). 

Now, the next bit of specious reasoning will come from those who want to elevate the level of their opponent and diminish the level of the other team's. 

The most predictable argument is going to be the attempt discredit the wins by LSU and Alabama over Florida by pointing to the quarterback situation. The quarterback situation wasn't the reason that the Tide posted 38 points against Florida or that LSU scored 41. 

Furthermore, the QB play against LSU might have been the "backup to the backup" which seems to be the more denigrating way of saying "third string" quarterback, but the QB play was not horrible. It wasn't the reason that Florida lost. 

On the other hand, the Texas tandem of Case McCoy and David Ash were a virtual comedy of errors against Oklahoma. Two of Oklahoma's touchdowns were a direct result of Texas QBs. They added another touchdown on a Mike Davis fumble.

While Oklahoma deserves credit for taking advantage of Texas' mistakes, if we're being consistent in our logic then we have to include the notion that while LSU went up against a freshman QB when they played Florida, the Sooners went against two freshmen QBs when they played Texas. 

Let's also bear in mind that Jacoby Bissett was a 5-star rated recruit. Scout.com had him as the ninth best QB recruit in the nation. Both of the Texas duo were 3-star recruits. Ash was the 21st ranked at his position. McCoy was 50th.

In other words, Bissett is better than McCoy or Ash. Calling him the "backup to the backup" might make him seem worse but that doesn't mean he is. The reality is that McCoy and Ash are both playing because neither is good enough to be the starter and the Longhorns are in a bad situation. 

And again, while the Texas game was Oklahoma's best win, Florida, which is actually a higher rated team than the Longhorns, is only LSU's third best win. 

Now the next argument that people are going to make is that everyone talked about how great Florida State and Texas were before the game and now everyone is saying they are overrated. Well to a point, that's fair. However, that also avoids certain realities too. 

With Florida State, it's not just the Oklahoma game that made everyone drop them in the rankings. It's the fact they haven't won since then that takes the luster off that win. Contrast that with LSU's win over the then third ranked Ducks. Since losing to LSU, Oregon has gone undefeated and have won their games by an average margin of 38 points. 

This illustrates the problem of looking at a single week of the season or defining the quality of a win based on the ranking of the team going in. It's true that people were overrating Texas and Florida State prior to their games with Oklahoma. That does mean they were overrated though.

The reality is that Florida State is not a top five team and Texas is not a top 10 team. If you want to make that argument, go ahead. I'd love to see someone trying to defend either position. It's all part of the development of the season. 

Alabama has handed two teams their only loss of the season: Penn State and Arkansas. LSU has handed two teams their only loss of the season: West Virginia and Oregon. The two have also combined to hand Florida their only two losses of the season. 

Outside of Oklahoma, only one team they've played is .500, and that's Ball State at 3-3. Their other three opponents are 2-3. Is there really even a conversation about SOS here?

Why is Oklahoma third? Because they haven't earned the top spot. LSU has played by far the toughest schedule and that's why they are in the top spot. Oklahoma can still prove themselves by winning out, but for now, one win against an overrated Texas team is not enough to put them ahead of LSU or Alabama.