2012 MLB Free-Agency Predictions: Where the Top 25 Pitchers Will Land

For 26 of the 30 MLB teams, October's arrival means that it's time to begin looking at MLB free agency. The crop of talent at each position varies, with some areas looking very good and others looking poor.

When it comes to pitchers, the crop is quite lean. A lot of the best pitchers' status is dependent on options, which could make an already weak pitching market even weaker if they're all picked up.

Which pitchers are the best in the market? More importantly (since the top handful is quite obvious), who is part of the next tier of pitchers that small-market teams could try to acquire?

Here are the top 25 free-agent pitchers and what will likely happen with them.

25. Joe Nathan

Joe Nathan proved this past season that his best days are behind him. However, his previous success combined with a weak free-agent class means that he squeezes onto this list.

Nathan has a pricey $12.5 million option in his contract, and the chances of them picking that up are pretty much zero. They could re-sign him at a bargain though, as the closer group of pitchers is at least somewhat deep, and Nathan's still a better option than Matt Capps in my mind.

If the Twins pass on him, he's probably done as a closer and will likely end up somewhere as a setup man.

24. Paul Maholm

Paul Maholm's Pirates tenure could be determined by his shoulder's status, since the debate to pick up the option is tough. On the one hand, he is the Pirates' ace, and his stats have been fairly good most years. On the other hand, the option is nearly $10 million.

Signing Maholm long-term rather than picking up the option may be the best idea, if only because the free-agent market is weak and the Pirates don't have much else. Besides, some teams may be scared off by his high walk rate.

I don't see Maholm being in a different uniform next year, suffice to say.

23. Brad Lidge/Ryan Madson

Can Brad Lidge be an elite closer again? He only pitched 19 innings this past year, but those innings were good. He can still be in a setup man role and still has something left, but he has to stay healthy.

I could see him trying to compete for the closer job somewhere, meaning that his time with Philadelphia is over. There's no way they're picking up his $12.5 million option, and if they had to pick between Ryan Madson and Lidge, they'll re-sign Madson.

Madson has emerged into a very good closer, and given the closer depth in free agency, Philadelphia should have little problem holding onto him.

22. Chris Capuano

A year ago, Capuano was just happy to have an opportunity to pitch after missing all of 2008 and 2009. Now, after a solid season with the Mets, recording 168 strikeouts in the process, Capuano could be a nice pickup.

The Red Sox wanted him for their playoff run and will likely try to acquire him again. The Mets will either re-sign Capuano or Chris Young, and if it's the latter, the Red Sox may end up with the depth they need moving forward, especially if Wakefield retires.

21. Frank Francisco

Frank Francisco is not a dominant closer, but he consistently gets the job done and could be had for a bargain after only saving 17 games last season.

I can't see Toronto keeping Jon Rauch in the closer role, but if they want to compete in the AL East, they will need to sign a dominant closer. Francisco is not that person. For that matter, he's only been a closer two seasons, so he may revert to setup man duty on another team.

20. Bartolo Colon

If you had told me a year ago that Bartolo Colon would be a top 20 free-agent pitcher this year, I would have broken out in laughter. Sure enough, Colon looked pretty good in 26 starts for the Yankees this year, and while he faded down the stretch, he wasn't bad.

The Yankees could keep him around for another year even if they're able to acquire a top-five pitcher in free agency. If the Yankees decide to move on due to his poor September, then he could easily add depth to any team ready to win now, such as the Tigers if they let Brad Penny go.

19. Aaron Harang

I noted a year back that Harang needed a change of scenery, and he would be back to a good pitcher. Sure enough, he had a good year in San Diego but could that rebound hurt his status? He had a 4.70 ERA on the road, so he can still pitch.

The option on Harang is only $5 million, so I think San Diego should onto him another year, as he provides some nice depth behind Mat Latos. That being said, they are leaning towards declining the option based on latest news.

Any team that needs some depth will try to acquire him if he leaves, as he can easily fill that fourth or fifth pitching spot. He would be a good option as a veteran leader for a young group of pitchers.

18. Freddy Garcia

Another veteran pitcher who had a come-back year with the Yankees, Freddy Garcia looked pretty good for most of the year, performing well behind Sabathia and Ivan Nova.

The Yankees are more likely to re-sign Garcia than Colon, but that's going to depend on how they feel about Dellin Betances. If they like him, he's in and Garcia's out.

One thing is certain though—Garcia is a great bargain in the low seven figures for any team that needs rotation depth.

17. Rafael Soriano

A year ago, Soriano was one of the top closers on the market but had to settle for being the setup man behind Mariano Rivera. After an average season on the mound, he could opt out of his contract this year.

Due to his stats and the depth at closer, Soriano won't get the money he's after, so I cannot see him leaving the Yankees. Next year, however, may be a different story, and that may be dependent on what Mariano Rivera does.

16. Erik Bedard

The next pitcher from the "I forgot about you" files, Erik Bedard split time with the Mariners and Red Sox, and for the most part, looked pretty good. He likely won't be the strikeout phenom again that he once was, but he can still pitch.

The Red Sox will look for free-agency pitching, and if they find some, Bedard will likely be gone. I see him having another year like last, being a late free-agency pickup by a lower-end team looking for a "low-risk, high-reward" outcome.

15. Bruce Chen

Bruce Chen was one of the only things that Royals fans could have been happy about recently, pitching-wise. He has a nice season, put up a 12-8 record and could be in line for a nice payday.

The Royals are strongly considering giving Chen a new deal and given that he's fine with staying in Kansas City, I think he'll sign a two to three-year deal and wrap up his career there.

14. Francisco Rodriguez

Of the former closers on this list, K-Rod is in the best position to regain his closer job. He played well with the Mets and even better with the Brewers, but he wants to be a closer again—plain and simple.

Combine that with the fact that his option is very pricey at $17.5 million, he's most likely to return to the Mets and close for them again. Then again, if the Brewers get a ring this year, maybe that would change his tone.

13. Javier Vazquez

Like many others on the list, Javier Vazquez had a nice comeback season, especially in the second half, after a poor year with the Yankees, though it was mostly forgotten since he spent this year with the Marlins.

While he would be a nice pickup for many teams, he seems to be leaning towards retirement currently. If he decides to stick around another year, the active strikeout leader will be a good pickup for any teams still looking for pitching in late December. Either way, he won't remain on the Marlins.

12. Ryan Dempster

Ryan Dempster's in a tough situation. He's been a Cub for a long time, and they'd be fine having him back. Since he wasn't as good this year as in previous years, he may not make all that much money in free agency.

He has a $14 million player option, and I can't see him leaving unless he's that sold on playing for a contender at this stage of his career, and if he is, then he's a great addition, having pitched over 200 innings each of the past four seasons.

11. Francisco Cordero

Francisco Cordero is part of the top tier of closers this year, which makes sense given a 2.45 ERA and 37saves this year to go along with three previous good seasons.

The Reds and Cordero both want to stay united, and he does have an option for 2012. Even if the Reds don't pick it up, they'll re-sign him for another couple years. This is one of the few I'm entirely sold on based on how talks are going.

10. Edwin Jackson

Edwin Jackson is really high on many free-agent lists this offseason, which is somewhat surprising. He had a solid year with the White Sox and Cardinals, and the fact that he's one of the youngest pitchers on the lists at 28 helps as well.

He is likely to be part of a bidding war amongst the middle-market teams. If the Cardinals keep Wainwright and Pujols, then Jackson will be heading elsewhere, as they would be in good shape on that end. Wherever he lands on, he will end up with a long-term deal.

9. Hiroki Kuroda

In four years as a Dodger, Hiroki Kuroda may not have been dominant, but he's been one of the most consistently good pitchers, keeping an ERA under four while staying around the 200 IP range.

While he would be a solid addition to any MLB club, if the Dodgers don't re-sign him, then he will return to the Hiroshima Carp in Japan. I'd prefer to see him over here for another couple years, but who knows which way he'll sway.

8. Jose Valverde

Jose Valverde doesn't get enough credit, as he is one of the best closers in baseball. He had a great year this year with a 2.24 ERA and 49 saves, and he hasn't had a bad season since he took over full-time closing duties.

He has a $9 million team option, and I can't see the Tigers not picking it up since he's been such a great fit there.

7. Heath Bell

Heath Bell has been one of the most dominant closers in MLB the past three seasons with the Padres, keeping an ERA under three and notching 40 saves all three seasons.

Bell feels that he'll be back with the Padres in 2012, but I think that the offers he'll get from other teams will be too good to pass up. If the Padres want to keep him, they'd have to hope that a small deal in comparison to others will be fine.

6. Jonathan Papelbon

The marquee free agent on the market, whether or not Red Sox fans may want to admit it, is Papelbon. He improved over 2010 and seems to be back in the groove and will be looking for a long-term deal.

Theo Epstein wants Papelbon back, but there's no chance it'll happen, since they have Daniel Bard to put in the closer spot. Whoever pays the most will end up with him, whether it's the White Sox, Cardinals or another team looking for an elite closer.

5. Roy Oswalt

I can't seem to figure out Roy Oswalt for this list. He's a great pitcher, and he should be a marquee pickup for any team. After the way this season went in Philadelphia though, I'm not even sure if he's mentally up for the challenge.

He has talked about retirement, and that might not be out of the question, since he's 34 and has done a lot in his career. The Phillies could still realistically pick up the option, but it's tough to say after how the playoffs went.

4. Adam Wainwright

Adam Wainwright would likely be the No. 2 pitcher on here if he didn't lose the entire 2011 season to injury. Luckily, it was his elbow rather than his shoulder, so he is still a valuable free agent worthy of a long-term deal.

While Albert Pujols is the Cardinals' top priority, Wainwright's team option is only $9 million, a bargain given his stats, so there's no way they let him go.

3. Mark Buehrle

Mark Buehrle has been one of the most consistently good starters in his career. In a group full of people with a couple good seasons mired in with average ones, his numbers look that much better.

Buehrle's ruled out nothing for free agency, so while the White Sox would love to keep him, every team looking for a top-tier pitcher is going to throw their money at him, maybe more so than No. 2 due to his track record.

The Yankees will be trying to acquire him, and the Rangers may be in play if they're worried C.J. Wilson will walk. I actually think his tenure in Chicago is done, but I have no idea where he may end up. He's the true wild card this year.

2. C.J. Wilson

Over only two seasons as a starting pitcher, C.J. Wilson has blossomed into one of the best in the league. Despite a high walk count, he excels pretty much everywhere else and is the marquee free agent that we know is just that.

Wilson is the one that will have the bidding wars erupt. The Yankees will be throwing all they have at him, as well the Red Sox and others looking for a No. 1 or No. 2 pitcher.

Since he'll only be 31 when 2012 begins, his deal will be a long one whether the Rangers manage to keep him or the Yankees get the pitching depth they need.

1. CC Sabathia

In a cruel twist of fate for those looking at marquee free agents, the best one may not be a free agent at all. CC Sabathia is under contract technically but can choose to opt out this offseason.

I can't see the Yankees letting him go, given how badly they need pitching. He'll end up remaining with the Yankees when it's all said and done. He says he wants more money, but how many teams can afford a $23 million/yr pitcher besides the Yankees? Not many.