Week 6 College Football Picks: 5 Upset Chances for Unranked vs. Ranked Teams

This week seems to be a week full of ranked teams playing inferior competition, all of which should lead to massive blowouts across the country.  To a certain extent, that is true.

But, there are also a few teams that can suffer major hiccups if they are not careful.  Expect many of the Top 25 teams to play closer-than-expected games against un-ranked opponents.

Keep in mind, this is a list of ranked teams that may lose to unranked teams.  This is not ranked teams losing to ranked teams (i.e. you wont see Texas or Florida on this list).

Texas A&M

Texas A&M has lost two games in a row, yet are still ranked No. 24 in the AP Poll. 

Both their losses have come in a choking fashion.  They led Oklahoma State 20-3 at the half, and led Arkansas 35-17 at the half. 

After suffering such deflating defeats, the onus is on the Aggies to right the ship, and still come to play with a competitive mindset. 

They will be playing their first true road game this weekend in Lubbock.  The Red Raiders have quietly put together a 4-0 start for the first time since 2008.  Last week, they pulled an "anti-Texas A&M," coming back from an early 20-point deficit.

The Red Raiders are a littler more balanced than they have been in years past.  They're still ninth in the nation in passing, led by QB Seth Doege, but they are also 42nd in rushing.  Doege is completing 73.3 percent of his passes, and has a 14-1 TD-INT ratio.

Texas A&M will be the best team that the Red Raiders have played this year.  That being said, there is no indication of the Red Raiders' high-powered offense being stopped by an Aggies defense that has given up 42 and 30 points in consecutive weeks.  Last week, the Aggies surrendered 500-plus passing yards to Arkansas.

Expect a shootout in Lubbock.  It could be a situation in which the team who has the ball last wins.  Don't be surprised if that team is Texas Tech.

Kansas State

This game won't even register as an upset, as Kansas State is an underdog at home, despite being a ranked opponent playing an unranked opponent.  It is one of the stranger things you will see, but it is true.

Kansas State has risen to No. 20 in the polls thanks to a strong rushing attack.  QB Collin Klein has rushed for 423 yards, while RB John Hubert has rushed for 343 yards.  All together, the Wildcats rank 18th in the nation in rushing.

While the competition they have faced may be of some quality, the rush defenses they have faced certainly aren't.  Miami is giving up 196.7 rushing yards per game against FBS opponents, and Baylor, 193.7. 

Now, consider that Mizzou is giving up only 108 yards per game against FBS opponents.  Factor in that Kansas State is 115th in the nation in passing, and you can deduce that Kansas State will face its stiffest challenge thus far.

Looking at the other side of the ball, we see that Mizzou actually has a more potent rushing attack than Kansas State.  The Tigers are rushing for 253.3 yards per game, and ran for 241 yards last week on the road in Oklahoma.

QB James Franklin has grown since his first start against Miami-Ohio.  Last week against Oklahoma, he threw for 291 yards and a touchdown, and rushed for another 103 yards and two touchdowns.  Better yet, he didn't turn the ball over.  He seems to be getting more comfortable in the offense.

The game will come down to which strong rushing attack can establish itself better.  This will be the best defense Kansas State has played so far, while Mizzou is already tested with road games in Tempe and Norman.  I give an edge to Mizzou.

Florida State

Wake Forest could easily be 4-0, if not for a fourth-quarter meltdown the opening weekend against Syracuse.  They've rebounded and won three straight, and are sitting nicely at 2-0 in the ACC.

The main reason is the development of QB Tanner Price.  He's completing 64.6 percent of his passes since the opening game, and is averaging 276.7 yards in that same timespan.

Florida State finds themselves in a similar situation that Texas A&M does.  High expectations have led to a disappointing 2-2 start.  FSU is also 0-1 in their conference.  They desperately need a win as well.

The Seminoles have had the week off to prepare for the trip to Winston-Salem.  They need to make a more concerted effort to run the ball.  They are ranked 115th in the nation in rushing, and do not have one player with over 100 yards rushing through four games!  Wake Forest is allowing a respectable 3.5 yards per carry, and 100 yards per game on the ground. 

FSU has declined to comment on which QB will start, E.J. Manuel or Clint Trickett.  Manuel is stated to be healthy, but Trickett threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns against Clemson.

Despite this being a matchup of two strong passing offenses, I believe it will come down to which team can run the ball better.  It should be noted that Wake's rushing attack isn't much better than the Seminoles', coming in at 99th in the nation.  FSU's rush defense is one of the better ones in the nation.  This could make the difference, but don't expect a blowout this weekend for the Noles.

Arizona State

If I was crazy for singing the praises of Utah before, I am especially crazy for thinking they could win without their QB, Jordan Wynn, right? 

Well, when we take a look at the whole picture, it might not be as ludicrous as you'd think. 

QB Jon Hays was thrown into the fray last week against Washington, and fared pretty well for himself.  After a week of practice with the starters, he should be more acclimated and prepared for the game against ASU.

This could also be an opportunity for Utah to rediscover the talents of RB John White IV.  White IV has 415 rushing yards on the year, but ran for only 35 last week against Washington.

Arizona State goes on the road for just the second time this year.  The first resulted in a 17-14 loss to Illinois, a game in which the Sun Devils turned it over three times and were sacked six times. 

The Sun Devils continue to make mistake after mistake.  They turned the ball over four times last week against Oregon State.  Playing anyone else other than the Beavers, and playing anywhere else other than Tempe, and the Sun Devils might not have escaped.  They were also out-gained by the Beavers.

Thus, the "Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde" complex continues with ASU.  On one hand, they have talent with QB Brock Osweiler and LB Vontaze Burfict.  On the other hand, they have turned the ball over 10 times, and have committed 36 penalties for 393 yards.  That last statistic is especially bad (for comparison, Alabama, who has also played five games, has committed 15 penalties for 148 yards).

It's those mistakes that constantly cost ASU games they should not lose.  They had a chance to ice the game against Mizzou early this year.  Up 14, and getting the ball back, they fumbled a punt.  As a result, they had to hold off Mizzou and beat them in OT.  Turnovers cost them the game against Illinois.

I think Utah will be well adjusted this week, as they have had a week to prepare with Hays.  Additionally, they should be able to run the ball.  If they can force ASU to make their characteristic mistakes, Utah can pull an upset and make the Pac-12 South race interesting again.

Michigan

Northwestern is a totally different team with Dan Persa playing.  There is no question about that.

We saw what he could do against the Illini last week.  In his first game back, Persa led the Wildcats to a 28-10 lead due to plays that don't show up in the box score.  Scrambling, eluding defenders, keeping plays alive and converting third downs were all on display.  He threw for four touchdowns in just 14 attempts.

Then, he went down with another injury.  After that, Northwestern couldn't move the ball. 

But now, he's back.  And he'll welcome the undefeated Wolverines on what will be Michigan's first road trip. 

Michigan comes in looking strong, but are we seeing the same ol' trick where the Wolverines start strong and end in a whimper?

Michigan's defense has rebounded after the shootout against Notre Dame.  In the past three games, the Wolverines have allowed 10 points.  They held San Diego State star running back Ronnie Hillman to 109 yards (his lowest total of the year), and held the Golden Gophers to just 177 yards in a 59-0 blowout.

The Wolverines are still not an explosive team through the air.  Denard Robinson still has trouble throwing, converting just 54.9 percent of his passes.  The 338 yards he threw for against Notre Dame were an anomaly, as they came on just 11 completions (silly, video game numbers). 

That being said, the Wolverines haven't asked on Robinson to throw outside of the ND game.  They've been just fine handing the ball off, which has led to the seventh-best rushing attack in the nation.  It remains to be seen what will happen when Michigan's rushing attack is shut down.

Northwestern could be the team that does that.  They held the Illini, a strong rushing team in their own right, to 82 yards last week.  Mobile QB Nathan Scheelhaase had 20 rushes for 35 yards in the game.  Scheelhaase isn't Robinson, but Northwestern's defense should be the best that the Wolverines have faced.

We should see great QB play with Persa and Robinson on Saturday.  If Northwestern can get a few stops, they have the ability to score enough points to beat Michigan.  As mentioned above, this will be Michigan's first road game of the season.  We will start to see if this is a new Michigan team under Brady Hoke, or if they are destined for another second-half collapse.  Expect a close, hard-fought game.