Week 6 College Football Predictions: 4 Reasons Why Texas Will Beat Oklahoma

The Texas Longhorns enter the Red River Shootout as the underdog, but they will find a way to beat the rival Oklahoma Sooners.

The Red River Shootout is one of the great spectacles in college football. The crimson and burnt orange nations split down the middle of the Cotton Bowl create an atmosphere unmatched by any other neutral site game. Yet lately the games haven’t been all that exciting.

The higher-ranked team has won every matchup since 1992.

Both teams enter this year’s contest undefeated, but No. 3 Oklahoma is the clear favorite. Texas has ascended to the brink of the top 10, but after the Longhorns’ 5-7 debacle last season, there’s still a healthy amount of skepticism about this team.

That said, the Texas Longhorns are better than people think.

On Saturday, Texas will prove that it has more than enough athletes on defense to corral Landry Jones and the Oklahoma offense and just enough skill on offense to squeak by with the win.

Defense

Oklahoma has developed a reputation for great defenses under Bob Stoops, but this year’s model isn’t quite up to snuff. Stoops certainly isn’t completely to blame, considering the catastrophic losses that his team has suffered on and off the field.

Regardless, the Sooners have surrendered 5.2 yards per play this season. That’s good for 46th in the nation, behind such defensive stalwarts as Hawaii, Arkansas State and SMU.

As always with Oklahoma, there’s plenty of talent, but things just haven’t come together yet on defense.

Texas, on the other hand, has already built an outstanding defensive. The Longhorns have allowed just 4.3 yards per play, good for 12th in the nation.

Landry Jones leads an Oklahoma offense that is certainly the best Texas has faced, but the Longhorns defense is especially good at keeping opposing passers in check. Texas has allowed just over 50 percent completions and only two passing touchdowns on the season.

Oklahoma will score, because Oklahoma scores on everybody, but Texas will be able to hold the Sooners down and keep the game within reach.

Quarterbacks

Landry Jones is one of the three or four best quarterbacks in college football. He will be great in this game because he’s great in almost every game that he plays. We know what we’re going to get from Jones.

Texas’ quarterbacks are a different story. Not only do we not know exactly what we’ll get, we don’t even know for sure who we’ll get.

The Longhorns offense sputtered out of the gate, but since making the switch from Garrett Gilbert to the tandem of David Ash and Case McCoy, the Texas offense has been humming. The Longhorns rolled up 400 yards of total offense at Iowa State and 488 yards at UCLA.

Though Gilbert had spent more time in the program, it’s clear that Ash and McCoy have a better understanding of the Texas offense. Combined, the two have completed nearly 70 percent of their passes.

There’s certainly concern around how the Longhorns' young passers will handle the environment at the Red River Shootout, but once they get on the field, the defense won’t offer many surprises.

Bob Stoops is an excellent defensive mind, but his schemes aren’t confounding like those of Nick Saban. His Oklahoma defense is loaded with talent, but it's pretty straightforward.

While experience is an issue and there’s no way to know how Ash and McCoy will react to the atmosphere at the Cotton Bowl, there’s no reason to think that these young quarterbacks can’t figure out how to dismantle this defense.

Running Game

The Longhorns have run the ball nearly twice as often as they’ve passed it this season, using a stable of backs to churn out over 4.5 yards per carry and nine touchdowns.

Texas takes the concept of running back by committee to a whole new level.

Five Longhorns have carried the ball at least 15 times, and five have averaged over five yards per carry. The committee is led by superfrosh Malcolm Brown, but he’s supported by Fozzy Whitaker and D.J. Monroe. All in all, Texas rolls up over 200 rushing yards per game.

Oklahoma has a solid rush defense, but the Sooners have struggled against offenses that employ zone-read concepts in the running game. Against Missouri, OU allowed 241 yards on the ground, including 103 from Tigers quarterback James Franklin. Neither Case McCoy nor David Ash are quite the running QB that Franklin is, but both have enough giddy-up in their legs to burn a defense from time to time.

Look for Texas to pound the ball on the ground all day long. The Longhorns will rotate backs and chew up the clock. The Texas defenders are very good, but keeping the Sooners off of the field is the most effective defensive strategy possible.

Third Down

In tight games matching talented teams, the game usually comes down to just a few key plays. Those plays often happen on third down, the time when both offense and defense turn to their best plays and the fate of a drive hangs in the balance.

Texas has allowed opponents to convert just 26 percent of third downs, the third-best percentage in FBS. The Longhorns have been especially strong against the pass, holding opposing offenses to to a completion percentage of just 34 percent.

Even with a great passing offense, Oklahoma converted just 38 percent of its third downs against Missouri and Florida State, the only legitimate defenses they’ve played.

The Sooners offense is all about rhythm. When Landry Jones gets in a groove with Ryan Broyles and Kenny Stills, there isn’t a defense in the country that can slow them down. However, when Oklahoma can’t covert third downs, rhythm is a hard thing to find.

The Texas defense will come to play in this game, especially on third down. The Longhorns will be able to get the Sooners offense off the field in those situations, which will tilt the balance of time of possession, as well as field position.